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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#141

Post by lreeves »

monero-xmr wrote: post #64
lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

[flagged]

Could you clarify for me please why the term globalist would be used instead of global? Like "Apple is a global corporation" is an unarguable fact but using the term globalist for these companies seems pretty strange to me since there are some pretty weird connotations with it.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#142

Post by sebmellen »

Centigonal wrote: post #55
walterbell wrote: post #23

2024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, which has influenced tariff policy, https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese... The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it beco…

> As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella I don't understand. US share of global GDP is around where it was in 1980, and in 1995[1]. Is Miran arguing that America's "exorbitant privilege" of being the source of the world's reserve currency, literally being able to buy goods from any country in the world with mone…

Yes, it is a liability, because in exchange for your reserve currency status you are indebting your country. Gradually, as you outsource more and produce less, your country derives more and more of its returns from soft economic assets (financial markets, legal structures, software, pharma, IP, etc.), than hard economic assets (commodities, energy, manufacturing, transportation, logistics, etc.).

In the long run, this hollows out your industrial base, drives income inequality (because labor is devalued when products/soft assets have zero marginal cost of replication), and defangs your country.

Said differently — vertical integration is the key to “innovation” in the abstract. You can see this with BYD.

With the above in mind, let’s say your goal as a country is to develop your industries so you can achieve vertical integration. Soft economic assets are easier to bootstrap once you have hard economic assets. If you lose your hard economic assets and only have soft ones, you are at a strategic disadvantage because your opponent (in this case China), can bootstrap their soft assets relatively quickly. By comparison, it will take you much longer to get your hard assets back (through the mythical process of “reshoring/reindustrialization”).

All that being said, this is not a commentary on the effectiveness of the tariff policy of the Trump administration.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#143

Post by Majromax »

ein0p wrote: post #15

WAI. Trump is crashing the T-note yield to refinance $9T (which is how much US debt is going to mature in 2025) at a lower rate. That, for those of us who know arithmetic, is approximately one quarter of all US debt. It seems to be working.

> Trump is crashing the T-note yield to refinance $9T (which is how much US debt is going to mature in 2025) at a lower rate

Even if this were intended (unlikely), destroying $6T of notional stock market value so far to save $270b/yr of interest (if 10-year yields drop by 3%, which hasn't happened yet) is a bad trade.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#144

Post by sorcerer-mar »

monero-xmr wrote: post #105
sorcerer-mar wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are globalist multinational corporations the main ones that get hurt by tariffs?

Yes, in the current American system!

Do those giant corporations employ any Americans?

Are they gonna struggle to feed their families?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#145

Post by Uvix »

darksaints wrote: post #95
bdelmas wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.

This. There is no reason why any country should trust us anymore if entire trade relations can be destroyed by a presidential whim. Even if Trump fell out of a window today and we got a pro-trade president tomorrow, we’re not fixing this damage for a very long time. We probably would have to amend the constitution to insulate foreign policy from the whims of a single person if we want any chance of fixing this in our…

It's already there in the Constitution - Article II, Section 2, Clause 2. Unfortunately other countries chose not to require things in writing and were happy with pinky promises that could be reneged.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#146

Post by mathfailure »

bawolff wrote: post #82
mathfailure wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this might be a move to stop a world war (between Russia and NATO/Europe). If U.S. also leaves NATO any time soon - the chances for a world war would decrease greatly.

I don't think that makes sense. Wars happen when one of the sides think they can win (and want something). USA leaving nato and reducing trade makes european states more vulnerable. I would expect this to increase the liklihood of war. Especially in the near term - eventually europe will adapt to the new world order, but in the mean time their is a limited window of opportunity where everything is in flux, which woul…

I'd like to correct you: wars don't happen when just one of the sides thinks they can win, they happen when BOTH sides think so.

I think that exactly for this reason Europe needs such a vaccine shot, so they stop they can win a war against Russia.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#147

Post by bitmasher9 »

VirusNewbie wrote: post #126
lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I was looking at used cars on Carmax about two or three weeks ago. I looked again today. They're another $1-2k. This is the shareholder/political class trying to eat their cake and have it too. Pay people a stagnant wage for 40 years while taking most of the surplus value and dedicating it to equities, then pretend to do something about it, but in a way that passes the buck to the people who have been making a stagna…

Are you claiming that the 'shareholder class' would rather depress the economy and wipe out trillions in shareholder value...over inflating the economy and lowering interest rates?

Agreed. It’s very rare to get a group of shareholders to agree that the price of their stock should go down.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#148

Post by lunarboy »

itake wrote: post #115
lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

China is isolationist and they seem to be growing. The problem is the USA is a consumer economy which isn’t sustainable. We could get away with it as a tech leader, but with China stepping ahead (Deepseek) china will be a tech leader and manufacturing leader. What will the USA have?

In what plane of reality is China isolationist

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#149

Post by fulladder »

ripped_britches wrote: post #69
fulladder wrote: post #5

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…

Financial markets are generally better indicators of overall sentiment than betting sites but point taken

Actually, that's not what I've found. When I have compared betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to the implied probability of Fed rate cuts in the interest rate futures market, I have found them to match up and move in lock step with each other. (I don't work for any of these companies and I don't use the betting sites myself; just stating my observation.)
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