Live data from Hacker News

Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

wsj.com

81–90 of 777 posts

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#81
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

[flagged]

Are globalist multinational corporations the main ones that get hurt by tariffs?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#82
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

I think this might be a move to stop a world war (between Russia and NATO/Europe). If U.S. also leaves NATO any time soon - the chances for a world war would decrease greatly.

I don't think that makes sense. Wars happen when one of the sides think they can win (and want something). USA leaving nato and reducing trade makes european states more vulnerable. I would expect this to increase the liklihood of war.

Especially in the near term - eventually europe will adapt to the new world order, but in the mean time their is a limited window of opportunity where everything is in flux, which would be a great time to strike.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#83
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If stocks hit $0, you probably have more immediate concerns - like where you are going to get your next meal and if someone is going to shoot you for the contents of your fridge. Stocks could still continue to fall, but they aren't going to slide to zero.

Stocks overall? No. The few stocks I might have specifically invested in? Possible.

Then it'll be a good lesson for you to diversify investments.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#84
post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

Bonds and stocks tend to have an inverse correlation. And, yep, bonds are up while stocks and real estate are down.

That’s why financial advisors tell you to keep a mix of stocks and bonds, trending towards a greater percentage of bonds depending on your risk tolerance and as you get older. (Because bonds have lower returns than stocks, historically, but are also less volatile.)

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#85
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

In the case of Trump, never attribute to ineptitude what can be explained by greed.

He is tanking the US economy so he and his billionaire cohort can buy things (businesses, real estate, stocks, etc) at a low price. Thus amassing more control and capital.

This is how the Russian oligarchy came into power.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#87
post #15

WAI. Trump is crashing the T-note yield to refinance $9T (which is how much US debt is going to mature in 2025) at a lower rate. That, for those of us who know arithmetic, is approximately one quarter of all US debt. It seems to be working.

Trump's been talking about tariffs for far longer than the current t-note cycle. He was talking about it a decade ago during his first time in office. IIRC he ran for POTUS as a Reform Party candidate in the 90s or 00s, and that party was started by Ross Perot, who was against NAFTA on the grounds that it'd cause a giant sucking sound of American jobs to Mexico.

He doesn't care about the debt; you can see this in how he pays taxes.

What he needs is something that lets the rich have their cake and eat it too. He needs to appear to be doing something for working-class American manufacturing jobs, while making the people that would fill those jobs bear the brunt of the impact. Tariffs are an expedient way to do that. They don't have to be approved by Congress and are effectively an autocratic way of raising taxes. They apply to prices first, not revenues, and they're simple to implement. The surplus value that used to head to shareholders as a result of cheap foreign goods will go down, but that can be offset by layoffs and the like.

The refinancing, if it's even a viable plan, is a nice side-effect.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#88
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I had $1000 in cash, and inflation hits 10%, the purchasing power is equivalent to (1000 / 1.1 = ~$909) in 2026. If I had the same $1000 in stock, and it lost 11% of its value in 2 days, I might worry about it being worth close to $0 by the end of the month.

If stocks hit $0, you probably have more immediate concerns - like where you are going to get your next meal and if someone is going to shoot you for the contents of your fridge. Stocks could still continue to fall, but they aren't going to slide to zero.

They can fall 90% slowly. Look at south Europe after 2018

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#89
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

I think less 4d chess and more Erlich Bachman school of negotiation. Bullying people in inferior bargaining positions has somehow worked thus far.

When the bully gets too ambitious the large number of bullied gang together for revenge, or at least effective countermeasures. The world will route around USA, find they can manage ok without it. The USA will be iced out, lose its reserve currency status, nobody will buy its military technology, making the USA unable to recoup large outlays for ambitious military projects, and the USA will lose its military dominance.

Also, the future of warfare and terrorism is autonomous networks of drones. Mexico and Canada won't be disposed to care what passes through their borders with the USA, and like Zelensky said ... we had the oceans and friendly neighbors, but that won't help us anymore.

EDIT: minor corrections

Post reply on HN