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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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61–70 of 777 posts

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#61
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

In the long run it could lead to more fair trade deals. Today’s episode of Newshour at the BBC World Service had a conversation between a BBC journalist and a German CDU politician where they talked about how the tariffs on cars from Germany entering America has historically been lower than the tariffs on cars from America entering Germany. The CDU politician was telling the BBC that he hoped maybe a resolution for a…

I think that is unlikely. Trade deals require precitability and trust. Nobody wants to sign a trade deal if it might not be worth the paper its written on next week.

I would expect that it would make future trade agreements more "unfair" to usa because other countries will price in a risk premium to cover america's unpredictability.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#62
post #15

WAI. Trump is crashing the T-note yield to refinance $9T (which is how much US debt is going to mature in 2025) at a lower rate. That, for those of us who know arithmetic, is approximately one quarter of all US debt. It seems to be working.

Is that really what he’s doing? If so, then that’s some 5d chess right there.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#64
post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

[flagged]

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#65
post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

Gold is up 14% this year, and up last year as well. A lot for something not inclined to move.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#66

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…

Good. Silicon Valley collectively sold their souls to Saudi Arabia, and put their full weight behind Trump because that’s what Saudi Arabia wanted, and now they are gonna get what they deserve. I hope their wealth is destroyed to the point of needing to care about Social Security and Medicare.

What souls did Silicon Valley ever have, c'mon srsly

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#67
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

In the long run it could lead to more fair trade deals. Today’s episode of Newshour at the BBC World Service had a conversation between a BBC journalist and a German CDU politician where they talked about how the tariffs on cars from Germany entering America has historically been lower than the tariffs on cars from America entering Germany. The CDU politician was telling the BBC that he hoped maybe a resolution for a…

These tariffs don't create an incentive to strike fair deals because they're not based on trade barriers, they're solely based on trade deficits.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#68
post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

I think in theory it forces the middle class to buy American due to tariffs, which builds a more sustainable lower class at the expense of the middle and lower upper classes.

I think it’s still an overall net negative (dramatically) that sees us become overall poorer and less influential, but I would guess there will be more factory sorts of jobs.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#69

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…

Financial markets are generally better indicators of overall sentiment than betting sites but point taken

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#70

So where is the bottom? I don’t actually believe there is one, I’m just curious to hear what other people think.

This weekend is going to determine that. There’s a pretty blood chance we’ll see the real crash Monday.
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