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AI 2027

ai-2027.com

461–470 of 641 posts

Re: AI 2027

#461

Why are the biggest AI predictions always made by people who aren't deep in the tech side of it? Or actually trying to use the models day-to-day...

Daniel Kokotajlo released the (excellent) 2021 forecast. He was then hired by OpenAI, and not at liberty to speak freely, until he quit in 2024. He's part of the team making this forecast. The others include: Eli Lifland, a superforecaster who is ranked first on RAND’s Forecasting initiative. You can read more about him and his forecasting team here. He cofounded and advises AI Digest and co-created TextAttack, an ad…

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Re: AI 2027

#462

No one can predict the future. Really, no one. Sometimes there is a hit, sure, but mostly it is a miss. The other thing is in their introduction: "superhuman AI" _artificial_ intelligence is always, by definition, different from _natural_ intelligence. That they've chosen the word "superhuman" shows me that they are mixing the things up.

I think you're reading too much into the meaning of "superhuman". I take it to mean "abilities greater than any single human" (for the same amount of time taken), which today's AIs have already demonstrated.

Re: AI 2027

#463

The story is entertaining, but it has a big fallacy - progress is not a function of compute or model size alone. This kind of mistake is almost magical thinking. What matters most is the training set. During the GPT-3 era there was plenty of organic text to scale into, and compute seemed to be the bottleneck. But we quickly exhausted it, and now we try other ideas - synthetic reasoning chains, or just plain synthetic…

Best reply in this entire thread, and I align with your thinking entirely. I also absolutely hate this idea amongst tech-oriented communities that because an AI can do some algebra and program an 8-bit video game quickly and without any mistakes, it's already overtaking humanity. Extrapolating from that idea to some future version of these models, they may be capable of solving grad school level physics problems and…

OK but getting good at science/engineering is what matters because that's what gives AI and people who wield it power. Once AI is able to build chips and datacenters autonomously, that's when singularity starts. AI doesn't need to understand humans or act human-like to do those things.

Re: AI 2027

#464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>but eliminating large swaths of humanity is something dicatorships have tried in the past. Technology changes things though. Things aren't "the same as it ever was". The Napoleonic wars killed 6.5 million people with muskets and cannons. The total warfare of WWII killed 70 to 85 million people with tanks, turboprop bombers, aircraft carriers, and 36 kilotons TNT of Atomic bombs, among other weaponry. Total war today…

I don't understand the psychology of doomerism. Are people truly so scared of these futures they are incapable of imagining an alternate path where anything less than total human extinction occurs? Like if you're truly afraid of this, what are you doing here on HN? Go organize and try to do something about this.

I don’t see it as doomerism, just realism. Looking at the realities of nuclear war shows that it is a world ending holocaust that could happen by accident or by the launch of a single nuclear ICBM by North Korea, and there is almost no chance of de-escalation once a missile is in the air. There is nothing to be done, other than advocate of nuclear arms treaties in my own country, but that has no effect on Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan, India, or Iran. Bertrand Russell said, "You may reasonably expect a man to walk a tightrope safely for ten minutes; it would be unreasonable to do so without accident for two hundred years." We will either walk the tightrope for another 100 years or so until global society progresses to where there is nuclear disarmament, or we won’t.

It is the same with Gen AI. We will either find a way to control an entity that rapidly becomes orders of magnitude more intelligent than us, or we won’t. We will either find a way to prevent the rich and powerful from controlling a Gen AI that can build and operate anything they need, including an army to protect them from everyone without a powerful Gen AI, or we won’t.

I hope for a future of abundance for all, brought to us by technology. But I understand that some existential threats only need to turn the wrong way once, and there will be no second chance ever.

Re: AI 2027

#465
post #460

The story is entertaining, but it has a big fallacy - progress is not a function of compute or model size alone. This kind of mistake is almost magical thinking. What matters most is the training set. During the GPT-3 era there was plenty of organic text to scale into, and compute seemed to be the bottleneck. But we quickly exhausted it, and now we try other ideas - synthetic reasoning chains, or just plain synthetic…

Did we read the same article? They clearly mention, take into account and extrapolate this; LLM have first scaled via data, now it's test time compute, but recent developments (R1) clearly show this is not exhausted yet (i.e. RL on synthetically (in-silico) generated CoT) which implies scaling with compute. The authors then outline further potential (research) developments that could continue this dynamic, literally…

Well based on what I'm reading, the OP's intent is that, not all (hence 'fully') validation, if not most of, can be done in-silico. I think we all agree that and that's the major bottleneck making agents useful - you have to have human-in-the-loop to closely guardrail the whole process.

Of course you can get a lot of mileage via synthetically generated CoT but does that lead to LLM speed up developing LLM is a big IF.

Re: AI 2027

#466
post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really get the American preoccupation with birth rates. We're already way overpopulated for our planet and this is showing in environmental issues, housing cost, overcrowded cities etc. It's totally a great thing if we start plateauing our population and even reduce it a bit. And no we're not going extinct. It'll just cause some temporary issues like an ageing population that has to be cared for but those iss…

The planet is absolutely not over populated. Overcrowded cities and housing costs aren't an overpopulation problem but a problem of concentrating economic activity in certain places.

there's 70% less wild animals than there were 30 years ago

Re: AI 2027

#468
post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. I agree that it's good science fiction, but this is still taking it too seriously. All of these "projections" are generalizing from fictional evidence - to borrow a term that's popular in communities that push these ideas. Long before we had deep learning there were people l…

There is no need to simulate Einstein to transform the world with AI. A self-driving car would already be plenty.

And a self driving car is not even necessary if we’re thinking about solving transportation problems. Train and bus are better at solving road transportation at scale.

Re: AI 2027

#469

The story is entertaining, but it has a big fallacy - progress is not a function of compute or model size alone. This kind of mistake is almost magical thinking. What matters most is the training set. During the GPT-3 era there was plenty of organic text to scale into, and compute seemed to be the bottleneck. But we quickly exhausted it, and now we try other ideas - synthetic reasoning chains, or just plain synthetic…

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Re: AI 2027

#470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand the psychology of doomerism. Are people truly so scared of these futures they are incapable of imagining an alternate path where anything less than total human extinction occurs? Like if you're truly afraid of this, what are you doing here on HN? Go organize and try to do something about this.

I don’t see it as doomerism, just realism. Looking at the realities of nuclear war shows that it is a world ending holocaust that could happen by accident or by the launch of a single nuclear ICBM by North Korea, and there is almost no chance of de-escalation once a missile is in the air. There is nothing to be done, other than advocate of nuclear arms treaties in my own country, but that has no effect on Russia, Chi…

I think it's a fallacy to equate pessimistic outcomes with "realism"

>It is the same with Gen AI. We will either find a way to control an entity that rapidly becomes orders of magnitude more intelligent than us, or we won’t. We will either find a way to prevent the rich and powerful from controlling a Gen AI that can build and operate anything they need, including an army to protect them from everyone without a powerful Gen AI, or we won’t

Okay, you've laid out two paths here. What are *you* doing to influence the course we take? That's my point. Enumerating all the possible ways humanity faces extinction is nothing more than doomerism if you aren't taking any meaningful steps to lessen the likelihood any of them may occur.

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