Live data from Hacker News

AI 2027

ai-2027.com

351–360 of 641 posts

Re: AI 2027

#351
In the hope of improving this forecast, here is what I find implausible:

- 1 lab constantly racing ahead and increasing the margin to other; the last 2 years are filled with ever-closer model capabilities and constantly new leaders (openai, anthropic, google, some would include xai).

- Most of the compute budget on R&D. As model capabilities increase and cost goes down, demand will increase and if the leading lab doesn't provide, another lab will capture that and have more total dollars to back channel into R&D.

Re: AI 2027

#352
post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The oil companies are saying their product is vital to the economy and they are not wrong. How else will we get food from the farms to the store ? Ambulances to the hospitals ? And many, many other things. Taxes are the best way to change behaviour (smaller cars driving less. Less flying etc). So government and the people who vote for them is to blame.

What if people are manipulated by bot farms and think tanks and talking points supported by those corporations? I think this view of humans - that they look at all the available information and then make calm decisions in their own interests - is simply wrong. We are manipulated all the damn time. I struggle to go to the supermarket without buying excess sugar. The biggest corporations in the world grew fat off showi…

Corporations would prefer lower corporate tax.

US corporate tax rates are actually every high. Partly due to the US having almost no consumption tax. EU members have VAT etc.

Re: AI 2027

#353

It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corpo…

> very real risk of societal collapse or species extinction

No, there is no risk of species extinction in the near future due to climate change and repeating the line will just further the divide and make the people not care about other people's and even real climate scientist's words.

Re: AI 2027

#354

If you genuinely believe this, why on earth would you work for OpenAI etc even in safety / alignment? The only response in my view is to ban technology (like in Dune) or engage in acts of terror Unabomber style.

Most people work for money. As long as money is necessary to survive and prosper, people will work for it. Some of the work may not align with their morals and ethics, but in the end the money still wins.

Banning will not automatically erase the existence and possibilty of things. We banned the use of nuclear weapons, yet we all know they exist.

Re: AI 2027

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly that part of the article and some other comments have given me the idle speculation, what if that was the solution to the, "Humans no longer feel they can meaningfully contribute to the world," issue? Like we can satisfy the hunting and retrieval instincts of dogs by throwing a stick, surely an AI that is 10,000 times more intelligent can devise a stick-retrieval-task for humans in a way that feels like sati…

What will AI find fulfilling itself? I find that to be quite a deep question. I feel the limitations of humans are quite a feature when you think about what the experience of life would be like if you couldn’t forget or experienced things for the first time. If you already knew everything and you could achieve almost anything with zero effort. It actually sounds…insufferable.

You might find Stanislav Lem's Golem XIV worth a read, in which a what we now call an AGI shares, amongst other things, its knowledge and speculations about long-term evolution of superintelligences, in a lecture to humans, before entering the next stage itself. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10208493 It seems difficult to obtain an English edition these days but there is a reddit thread you might want to look into.

Re: AI 2027

#356
post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one's gonna solve anything. "Our" world is based on greedy morons concentrating power through hands of just morons who are happy to hit you with a stick. This system doesn't think about what "we" should or allowed to do, and no one's here is at the reasonable side of it either. lest we run the very real risk of societal collapse or species extinction Our part is here. To be replaced with machines if this AI thing…

https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/

I read for such a long time, and I still couldn’t get through that, even though it never got boring.

I like that it ends with a reference to Kushiel and Elua though.

Re: AI 2027

#357

Though I think it is probably mostly science-fiction, this is one of the more chillingly thorough descriptions of potential AGI takeoff scenarios that I've seen. I think part of the problem is that the world you get if you go with the "Slowdown"/somewhat more aligned world is still pretty rough for humans: What's the point of our existence if we have no way to meaningfully contribute to our own world? I hope we're wr…

> Slowdown"/somewhat more aligned world is still pretty rough for humans: What's the point of our existence if we have no way to meaningfully contribute to our own world? We spend the best 40 years of our lives working 40-50 hours a week to enrich the top 0.1% while living in completely artificial cities. People should wonder what is the point of our current system instead of worrying about Terminator tier sci fi sys…

A lot of people in my surroundings are not buying this life anymore; especially young people are asking why would they. Unlike in the US, they won't end up under a bridge (unless some real collapse, which can of course happen but why worry about it; it might not) so they work simple jobs (data entry or whatnot) to make enough money to eat and party and nothing more. Meaning many of them work no more than a few hours a month. They live rent free at their parents and when they have kids they stop partying but generally don't go work more (well; raising kids is hard work of course but I mean for money). Many of them will inherit the village house from their parents and have a garden so they grow stuff to eat , have some animals and make their own booze so they don't have to pay for that. In cities, people feel the same 'who would I work for the ferrari of the boss we never see', but it is much harder to not to; more expensive and no land and usually no property to inherit (as that is in the countryside or was already sold to not have to work for a year or two).

Like you say, people but more our govs need to worry about what is the point at this moment, not scifi in the future; this stuff has already bad enough to worry about. Working your ass off for diminishing returns , paying into a pension pot that won't make it until you retire etc is driving people to really focus on the now and why they would do these things. If you can just have fun with 500/mo and booze from your garden, why work hard and save up etc. I noticed even people from my birth country with these sentiments while they have it extraordinarily good for the eu standards but they are wondering why would they do all of this for nothing (...) more and more and cutting hours more and more. It seems more an education and communication thing really than anything else; it is like asking why pay taxes: if you are not well informed, it might feel like theft, but when you spell it out, most people will see how they benefit.

Re: AI 2027

#358

It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corpo…

> very real risk of societal collapse or species extinction No, there is no risk of species extinction in the near future due to climate change and repeating the line will just further the divide and make the people not care about other people's and even real climate scientist's words.

Don’t say the things people don’t want to hear and everything will be fine?

That sounds like the height of folly.

Re: AI 2027

#359
I'm troubled by the amount of people in this thread partially dismissing this as science fiction. From the current rate of progress and rate of change of progress, this future seems entirely plausible

Re: AI 2027

#360
post #325
post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you put a knife in someone’s heart, you’re the one who did it and ultimately you’re responsible. If someone told you to do it and you were just following orders… you still did it. If you say there were no rules against putting knives in other people’s hearts, you still did it and you’re still responsible. If it’s somehow different for corporations, please enlighten me how.

The oil companies are saying their product is vital to the economy and they are not wrong. How else will we get food from the farms to the store ? Ambulances to the hospitals ? And many, many other things. Taxes are the best way to change behaviour (smaller cars driving less. Less flying etc). So government and the people who vote for them is to blame.

There are politicians in multiple states trying to pass laws that slow down the deployment of renewable energy because they’re afraid if they don’t intervene it will be deployed too quickly and harm fossil fuel interests. Trump is promising to bring back coal, while he bans new wind leases. The whole “oil is the only way aw shucks people chose it” shtick is like a time capsule from 1990. That whole package of beliefs served its purpose and has been replaced with a muscular state-sponsored plan to defend fossil fuel interests even as they become economically obsolete and the rest of the world moves on.
Post reply on HN