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AI 2027

ai-2027.com

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Re: AI 2027

#311

Post by baq »

KaiserPro wrote: post #151

> AI has started to take jobs, but has also created new ones. Yeah nah, theres a key thing missing here, the number of jobs created needs to be more than the ones it's destroyed, and they need to be better paying and happen in time. History says that actually when this happens, an entire generation is yeeted on to the streets (see powered looms, Jacquard machine, steam powered machine tools) All of that cheap labour…

> So no, the stock market will not be growing because of AI, it will be in spite of it.

The stock market will be one of the very few ways you will be able to own some of that AI… assuming it won’t be nationalized.

Re: AI 2027

#312

Post by kubb »

programd wrote: post #144
kubb wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't be able to write a compelling novel, or build a software system solving a real-world problem, or operate heavy machinery, create a sprite sheet or 3d models, design a building or teach. Long term planning and execution and operating in the physical world is not within reach. Slight variations of known problems should be possible (as long as the size of the solution is small enough).

Does a fighter jet count as "heavy machinery"? https://apnews.com/article/artificial-intelligence-fighter-j...

Yes, when they send unmanned jets to combat.

Re: AI 2027

#313

Post by kubb »

pixl97 wrote: post #163
kubb wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't be able to write a compelling novel, or build a software system solving a real-world problem, or operate heavy machinery, create a sprite sheet or 3d models, design a building or teach. Long term planning and execution and operating in the physical world is not within reach. Slight variations of known problems should be possible (as long as the size of the solution is small enough).

> or operate heavy machinery What exactly do you mean by this one? In large mining operations we already have human assisted teleoperation AI equipment. Was watching one recently where the human got 5 or so push dozers lined up with a (admittedly simple) task of cutting a hill down and then just got them back in line if they ran into anything outside of their training. The push and backup operations along with blade…

Operating an excavator when building a stretch of road. Won’t happen by 2027.

Re: AI 2027

#315

Post by baq »

Trumpion wrote: post #118
archagon wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Small light computers become fast enough that autonomous slaughter it's become reality This is the real scary bit. I'm not convinced that AI will ever be good enough to think independently and create novel things without some serious human supervision, but none of that matters when applied to machines that are destructive by design and already have expectations of collateral damage. Slaughterbots are going to be th…

Why do you believe that? The lowest estimations of how much compute our brain represents was already achieved with the last chip from Nvidia (Blackwell). The newest gpu cluster from Google, Microsoft, Facebook, iax, and co have added so crazy much compute it's absurd.

If you bake the model onto the chip itself, which is what should be happening for local LLMs once a good enough one is trained eventually, you’ll be looking at orders of magnitude reduction in power consumption at constant inference speed.

Re: AI 2027

#316

Post by baq »

turnsout wrote: post #221
Tossrock wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is literally the pitch line for Devin. I recently spoke to the CTO of a small healthtech startup and he was very pro-Devin for small fixes and PRs, and thought he was getting his money worth. Claude Code is a little clunkier but gives better results, and it wouldn't take much effort to hook it up to a Slack interface.

Yeah, I get that there are startups trying to do it. But I work with Cursor quite a bit… there is no way I would trust an LLM code agent to take high-level direction and issue a PR on anything but the most trivial bug fix.

Last year they couldn’t even do a simple fix (they could add a null coalescing operator or an early return which didn’t make sense, that’s about it). Now I’m getting hundreds of LOC of functionality with multiple kLOC of tests out of the agent mode. No way it gets in without a few iterations, but it’s sooo much better than last April.

Re: AI 2027

#317

Post by FeepingCreature »

IshKebab wrote: post #89
ctoth wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you share your detailed projection of what you expect the future to look like so I can compare?

Sure 5 years: AI coding assistants are a lot better than they are now, but still can't actually replace junior engineers (at least ones that aren't shit). AI fraud is rampant, with faked audio commonplace. Some companies try replacing call centres with AI, but it doesn't really work and everyone hates it. Tesla's robotaxi won't be available, but Waymo will be in most major US cities. 10 years: AI assistants are now u…

It kind of sounds like you're saying "exactly everything we have today, we will have mildly more of."

Re: AI 2027

#318

Post by jrvarela56 »

wruza wrote: post #286
stego-tech wrote: post #279

It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corpo…

No one's gonna solve anything. "Our" world is based on greedy morons concentrating power through hands of just morons who are happy to hit you with a stick. This system doesn't think about what "we" should or allowed to do, and no one's here is at the reasonable side of it either. lest we run the very real risk of societal collapse or species extinction Our part is here. To be replaced with machines if this AI thing…

https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/
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