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Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

faculty.washington.edu

71–80 of 200 posts

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#71
I'd have expected better from Warren Buffett. It's not a zero-sum game, the developed countries running chronic trade surpluses like Germany and Sweden (my home country) are fooling themselves, because the only way they can do that is by putting a brake on domestic consumption by keeping wages low.

Everybody in the EU would be better off if those countries actually let their consumers spend the money that they're hoarding. All of that spending wouldn't go on foreign goods, so it would even benefit their own producers as well. Yet German politicians indoctrinated in stupid frugality (that once had a point, but is completely outdated) continue to scold countries that run trade deficits in order to buy German goods instead of suffocating their economy and making it even worse for everybody, especially Germany.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#72

It seems like the way to "fix" a trade deficit is to create products the rest of the world actually wants to buy. The application of any reciprocal arrangement, whether tariffs or these ICs as proposed in the article only achieves "balance" through punishing others. Aside from the obvious consumer technology and software I am hard pushed to think of any USA produce I would buy that would meet the standards we have in…

> The simple reality is that the USA consumes more than it produces.

Indeed, and the US can afford this because it has concentrated a lot of the world's wealth within its borders. So it is not really clear what they want to fix.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#73

A long time ago, Britain was the dominant economic power in the world. Britain had a massive trade deficit with India. It imported far more from India than it exported to India. But what Britain did was import massive amounts from India and made high value goods at home and provided high value services that couldn't be provided elsewhere. Should it have flipped the other way? In 1800, should Britain have suddenly shi…

> Sure, India was a colony and not a mere trading partner, so no need to argue about that. But the US is also an empire that has bases around the world and has many countries in an economic chokehold.

That seems to resolve the question you put. Britain and India weren't independent, so talking about a trade balance between the two doesn't really mean anything. If it favoured India, that was good for the British Empire. If it favoured Britain, that was also good for the British Empire. It didn't matter who was favoured or by how much because the British capitalists and Imperial officers were in control of both sides of the trade.

I personally think the US trade deficit is a huge problem ... for the US's trading partners who just gave it real stuff for paper. But your argument for why Britain-India experience was relevant doesn't hold together.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#74

A long time ago, Britain was the dominant economic power in the world. Britain had a massive trade deficit with India. It imported far more from India than it exported to India. But what Britain did was import massive amounts from India and made high value goods at home and provided high value services that couldn't be provided elsewhere. Should it have flipped the other way? In 1800, should Britain have suddenly shi…

> Britain had a massive trade deficit with India.

Google tells this isn’t true.

The UK actually had a massive trade surplus because it received cheap resources from India, then sold back high value items.

All of this was controlled by strict trade rules.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#75
post #60
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And USA get 30% (or 20% depending on the studio) of the price you paid. Do you use Android, windows or Apple, or any licensed software?

> any physical USA goods Do you see the word "physical" in my original comment? And me saying that I don't buy such things? I will admit to buying Intel CPUs, but aren't they manufactured in the Far East?

I am from EU and the only physical idem proudly wearing "Made in USA" label I saw over the years is the Urimat pad in public toilets.

P.S. Upon inspecting my memory, I think the other one was an HP cesium clock, but that was many years ago.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#76
post #47

A long time ago, Britain was the dominant economic power in the world. Britain had a massive trade deficit with India. It imported far more from India than it exported to India. But what Britain did was import massive amounts from India and made high value goods at home and provided high value services that couldn't be provided elsewhere. Should it have flipped the other way? In 1800, should Britain have suddenly shi…

The t-shirt metaphor is completely unjust - there is no value there for national security nor strategic autonomy. Consider instead: - Semiconductor low-end fabrication (Taiwan, Korea) - Basic electronics: circuit boards, USB devices, .. (China) - Auto parts (Mexico, China, Germany) - Generic drugs (India, China) The reality is that the US is not the ultimate global hegemon anymore and therefore offshoring industries…

> The t-shirt metaphor is completely unjust - there is no value there for national security nor strategic autonomy.

Buffet's article and Trump's tariffs reflected antipathy to net trade deficits. Not specific strategic concerns.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#77

The USA captures most of the value from selling iPhones worldwide, but yet the entire value of an iPhone counts only as a Chinese export. Something is not right with how we calculate these things.

Quoting from wikipedia: > Prior to 20th-century monetarist theory, the 19th-century economist and philosopher Frédéric Bastiat expressed the idea that trade deficits actually were a manifestation of profit, rather than a loss. He proposed as an example to suppose that he, a Frenchman, exported French wine and imported British coal, turning a profit. > He supposed he was in France and sent a cask of wine which was wor…

That sounds like a forerunner to Ricardian comparative advantage which is a major (really the major) reason for thinking international trade makes everyone better off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#78
post #60
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And USA get 30% (or 20% depending on the studio) of the price you paid. Do you use Android, windows or Apple, or any licensed software?

> any physical USA goods Do you see the word "physical" in my original comment? And me saying that I don't buy such things? I will admit to buying Intel CPUs, but aren't they manufactured in the Far East?

Intel have fabs in the US, Israel and Asia. So it depends.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#79
post #47

A long time ago, Britain was the dominant economic power in the world. Britain had a massive trade deficit with India. It imported far more from India than it exported to India. But what Britain did was import massive amounts from India and made high value goods at home and provided high value services that couldn't be provided elsewhere. Should it have flipped the other way? In 1800, should Britain have suddenly shi…

The t-shirt metaphor is completely unjust - there is no value there for national security nor strategic autonomy. Consider instead: - Semiconductor low-end fabrication (Taiwan, Korea) - Basic electronics: circuit boards, USB devices, .. (China) - Auto parts (Mexico, China, Germany) - Generic drugs (India, China) The reality is that the US is not the ultimate global hegemon anymore and therefore offshoring industries…

What's funny is the tariffs announced a couple day sago explicitly excluded semi conductors and pharmaceuticals. We are literally about to tariff t-shirts but not those more strategic industries.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#80
post #47

A long time ago, Britain was the dominant economic power in the world. Britain had a massive trade deficit with India. It imported far more from India than it exported to India. But what Britain did was import massive amounts from India and made high value goods at home and provided high value services that couldn't be provided elsewhere. Should it have flipped the other way? In 1800, should Britain have suddenly shi…

The t-shirt metaphor is completely unjust - there is no value there for national security nor strategic autonomy. Consider instead: - Semiconductor low-end fabrication (Taiwan, Korea) - Basic electronics: circuit boards, USB devices, .. (China) - Auto parts (Mexico, China, Germany) - Generic drugs (India, China) The reality is that the US is not the ultimate global hegemon anymore and therefore offshoring industries…

>> the US is not the ultimate global hegemon anymore

The hegemon concept is also out of date. World trade is not dominated by countries but by multinationals. For instance, there are no real "US" car companies. There are a handful of huge conglomerates who can choose to operate wherever best suits their needs. These respond to edicts from individual countries but operate at a level above nation states.

This is why international cooperation on things like taxation or environmental protection is so important. And it is why petty bickering by individual nations will be so damaging.

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