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Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

faculty.washington.edu

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Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#21
post #8

When they talk about trade deficits do they take into account tourism and other cross-border services? Or is it just goods, and in that case why focus on goods?

Only goods, at least for the EU the 100+B trade deficit for services in favor of the US is carefully left out.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#22
It seems like the way to "fix" a trade deficit is to create products the rest of the world actually wants to buy. The application of any reciprocal arrangement, whether tariffs or these ICs as proposed in the article only achieves "balance" through punishing others.

Aside from the obvious consumer technology and software I am hard pushed to think of any USA produce I would buy that would meet the standards we have in the EU.

The simple reality is that the USA consumes more than it produces.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#23
“Buffett likened the situation to a wealthy family gradually selling off parts of its estate to sustain its lifestyle”

Yet, actually the proper analogy, would be a wealthy family using their disposable income to buy products that make their life easier, and sometimes, even make them more productive so that they can have even more income.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#24
I think we should expect the US to lose its reserve currency status if these tariffs continue and we should also expect its tax revenue to drop. The combination may make it more likely to see a US default on its debt as there will be less demand for its bonds around the world and less ability to pay high interest rates.

Seems unthinkable I know but we are in weird times.

If Trump doesn’t back down we may see a very interesting time in the US economy. I should point out that many oligarchs in Russia established themselves by making bold moves in the turbulent post Soviet times. This may be similar time period for the US where a new generation of winners emerge.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#25
post #8

When they talk about trade deficits do they take into account tourism and other cross-border services? Or is it just goods, and in that case why focus on goods?

Generally they are just goods.

It’s much easier to measure physical goods crossing customs. It’s very difficult to measure whether that guy in your restaurant was a tourist or not. And that’s the simple case believe it or not…

This is one of the reasons service oriented economies seem to run huge deficits…

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#26
Interesting, and worrying at the time, but he clearly turned out to be wrong. The trend never stopped [1] and is not obviously responsible for any negative economic trend. The trend has continued [2]. The thing to worry about is probably not that it is happening, but who is holding these investments.

[1]: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international...

[2]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HrHY

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#29
post #8

When they talk about trade deficits do they take into account tourism and other cross-border services? Or is it just goods, and in that case why focus on goods?

> When they talk about trade deficits do they take into account tourism and other services?

If the USA wants tourists, they better ensure not to annoy tourists by their visa policy, or even by detaining tourists:

> Germany Issues Travel Warning for US

> https://www.newsweek.com/germany-issues-travel-warning-us-20...

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#30
post #9

Strange. I, as a UK citizen, don't seem to buy almost any physical USA goods at all.

There are valuable things out there other than "physical goods".

Well, how are going to charge for them?

For example, how to deal with Steam? most of the games I buy there (Baldurs Gate 3 for e.g.) are not made in the USA.

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