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AI 2027

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Re: AI 2027

#301

Post by nroets »

stego-tech wrote: post #279

It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corpo…

I fail to see how corporations are responsible for the climate crisis: Politicians won't tax gas because they'll get voted out.

We know that Trump is not captured by corporations because his trade policies are terrible.

If anything, social media is the evil that's destroying the political center: Americans are no longer reading mainstream newspapers or watching mainstream TV news.

The EU is saying the elections in Romania was manipulated through manipulation of TikTok accounts and media.

Re: AI 2027

#302

Post by autumnstwilight »

dovin wrote: post #292
chipsrafferty wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A world in which most humans fill the role of "pets" of the ultra rich doesn't sound that great.

Humans becoming domesticated by benevolent superintelligences are some of the better futures with superintelligences, in my mind. Iain M Banks' Culture series is the best depiction of this I've come across; they're kind of the utopian rendition of the phrase "all watched over by machines of loving grace". Though it's a little hard to see how we get from here to there.

Honestly that part of the article and some other comments have given me the idle speculation, what if that was the solution to the, "Humans no longer feel they can meaningfully contribute to the world," issue?

Like we can satisfy the hunting and retrieval instincts of dogs by throwing a stick, surely an AI that is 10,000 times more intelligent can devise a stick-retrieval-task for humans in a way that feels like satisfying achievement and meaningful work from our perspective.

(Leaving aside the question of whether any of that is a likely or desirable outcome.)

Re: AI 2027

#303

Post by ionwake »

zdragnar wrote: post #293
ivraatiems wrote: post #219

Though I think it is probably mostly science-fiction, this is one of the more chillingly thorough descriptions of potential AGI takeoff scenarios that I've seen. I think part of the problem is that the world you get if you go with the "Slowdown"/somewhat more aligned world is still pretty rough for humans: What's the point of our existence if we have no way to meaningfully contribute to our own world? I hope we're wr…

> What's the point of our existence if we have no way to meaningfully contribute to our own world? You may find this to be insightful: https://meltingasphalt.com/a-nihilists-guide-to-meaning/ In short, "meaning" is a contextual perception, not a discrete quality, though the author suggests it can be quantified based on the number of contextual connections to other things with meaning. The more densely connected somet…

Please don't be offended by my opinion, I mean it in good humour to share some strong disagreements - Im going to give my take after reading your comment and the article which both seem completely OTT ( contextwise regarding my opinions ).

>meaning behind them is not dependent upon the perspective of an external observer.

(Yes brother like cmon)

Regarding the author, I get the impression he grew up without a strong father figure? This isnt ad hominem I just get the feeling of someone who is so confused and lost in life that he is just severely depressed possibly related to his directionless life. He seems so confused he doesn't even take seriously the fact most humans find their own meaning in life and says hes not even going to consider this, finding it futile.( he states this near the top of the article ).

I believe his rejection of a simple basic core idea ends up in a verbal blurb which itself is directionless.

My opinion ( Which yes maybe more floored than anyones ), is to deal with Mazlows hierarchy, and then the prime directive for a living organism which after survival , which is reproduction. Only after this has been achieved can you then work towards your family community and nation.

This may seem trite, but I do believe that this is natural for someone with a relatively normal childhood.

My aim is not to disparage, its to give me honest opinion of why I disagree and possible reasons for it. If you disagree with anything I have said please correct me.

Thanks for sharing the article though it was a good read - and I did struggle myself with meaning sometimes.

Re: AI 2027

#304

Post by ugh123 »

I don't see the U.S. nationalizing something like Open Brain. I think both investors and gov't officials will realize its highly more profitable for them to contract out major initiatives to said OpenBrain-company, like an AI SpaceX-like company. I can see where this is going...

Re: AI 2027

#305

Post by ahtihn »

wkat4242 wrote: post #215
pydry wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>History says that actually when this happens, an entire generation is yeeted on to the streets History hasnt had to contend with a birth rate of 0.7-1.6. It's kind of interesting that the elite capitalist media (economist, bloomberg, forbes, etc) is projecting a future crisis of both not enough workers and not enough jobs simultaneously.

I don't really get the American preoccupation with birth rates. We're already way overpopulated for our planet and this is showing in environmental issues, housing cost, overcrowded cities etc. It's totally a great thing if we start plateauing our population and even reduce it a bit. And no we're not going extinct. It'll just cause some temporary issues like an ageing population that has to be cared for but those iss…

The planet is absolutely not over populated.

Overcrowded cities and housing costs aren't an overpopulation problem but a problem of concentrating economic activity in certain places.

Re: AI 2027

#306

Post by MrScruff »

moab wrote: post #13

> "OpenBrain (the leading US AI project) builds AI agents that are good enough to dramatically accelerate their research. The humans, who up until very recently had been the best AI researchers on the planet, sit back and watch the AIs do their jobs, making better and better AI systems." I'm not sure what gives the authors the confidence to predict such statements. Wishful thinking? Worst-case paranoia? I agree that…

I would assume this comes from having faith in the overall exponential trend rather than getting that much into the weeds of how this will come about. I can sort of see why you might think that way - everyone was talking about hitting a wall with brute force scaling and then inference time scaling comes along to keep things progressing. I wouldn't be quite as confident personally and as have many have said before, a sigmoid looks like an exponential in it's initial phase.

Re: AI 2027

#307

Post by turtleyacht »

We have yet to read about fragmented AGI, or factionalized agents. AGI fighting itself.

If consciousness is spatial and geography bounds energetics, latency becomes a gradient.

Re: AI 2027

#308

Post by baq »

nroets wrote: post #301
stego-tech wrote: post #279

It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corpo…

I fail to see how corporations are responsible for the climate crisis: Politicians won't tax gas because they'll get voted out. We know that Trump is not captured by corporations because his trade policies are terrible. If anything, social media is the evil that's destroying the political center: Americans are no longer reading mainstream newspapers or watching mainstream TV news. The EU is saying the elections in Ro…

If you put a knife in someone’s heart, you’re the one who did it and ultimately you’re responsible. If someone told you to do it and you were just following orders… you still did it. If you say there were no rules against putting knives in other people’s hearts, you still did it and you’re still responsible.

If it’s somehow different for corporations, please enlighten me how.

Re: AI 2027

#309

Post by MrScruff »

kridsdale3 wrote: post #131
AlphaAndOmega0 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Daniel Kokotajlo released the (excellent) 2021 forecast. He was then hired by OpenAI, and not at liberty to speak freely, until he quit in 2024. He's part of the team making this forecast. The others include: Eli Lifland, a superforecaster who is ranked first on RAND’s Forecasting initiative. You can read more about him and his forecasting team here. He cofounded and advises AI Digest and co-created TextAttack, an ad…

TBH, this kind of reads like the pedigrees of the former members of the OpenAI board. When the thing blew up, and people started to apply real scrutiny, it turned out that about half of them had no real experience in pretty much anything at all, except founding Foundations and instituting Institutes. A lot of people (like the Effective Altruism cult) seem to have made a career out of selling their Sci-Fi content as p…

I kind of agree - since the Bostrom book there is a cottage industry of people with non-technical backgrounds writing papers about singularity thought experiments, and it does seem to be on the spectrum with hard sci-fi writing. A lot of these people are clearly intelligent, and it's not even that I think everything they say is wrong (I made similar assumptions long ago before I'd even heard of Ray Kurzweil and the Singularity, although at the time I would have guessed 2050). It's just that they seem to believe their thought process and Bayesian logic is more rigourous than it actually is.

Re: AI 2027

#310

Post by baq »

abraxas wrote: post #229
ivraatiems wrote: post #219

Though I think it is probably mostly science-fiction, this is one of the more chillingly thorough descriptions of potential AGI takeoff scenarios that I've seen. I think part of the problem is that the world you get if you go with the "Slowdown"/somewhat more aligned world is still pretty rough for humans: What's the point of our existence if we have no way to meaningfully contribute to our own world? I hope we're wr…

I think LLM or no LLM the emergence of intelligence appears to be closely related to the number of synapses in a network whether a biological or a digital one. If my hypothesis is roughly true it means we are several orders of magnitude away from AGI. At least the kind of AGI that can be embodied in a fully functional robot with the sensory apparatus that rivals the human body. In order to build circuits of this dens…

Exponential growth means the first order of magnitude comes slowly and the last one runs past you unexpectedly.
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