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AI 2027

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181–190 of 641 posts

Re: AI 2027

#181

> AI has started to take jobs, but has also created new ones. Yeah nah, theres a key thing missing here, the number of jobs created needs to be more than the ones it's destroyed, and they need to be better paying and happen in time. History says that actually when this happens, an entire generation is yeeted on to the streets (see powered looms, Jacquard machine, steam powered machine tools) All of that cheap labour…

> and probably revolution

I theorise that revolution would be near-impossible in post-AGI world. If people consider where power comes from it's relatively obvious that people will likely suffer and die on mass if we ever create AGI.

Historically the general public have held the vast majority of power in society. 100+ years ago this would have been physical power – the state has to keep you happy or the public will come for them with pitchforks. But in an age of modern weaponry the public today would be pose little physical threat to the state.

Instead in todays democracy power comes from the publics collective labour and purchasing power. A government can't risk upsetting people too much because a government's power today is not a product of its standing army, but the product of its economic strength. A government needs workers to create businesses and produce goods and therefore the goals of government generally align with the goals of the public.

But in an post-AGI world neither businesses or the state need workers or consumers. In this world if you want something you wouldn't pay anyone for it or workers to produce it for you, instead you would just ask your fleet of AGIs to get you the resource.

In this world people become more like pests. They offer no economic value yet demand that AGI owners (wherever publicly or privately owned) share resources with them. If people revolted any AGI owner would be far better off just deploying a bioweapon to humanely kill the protestors rather than sharing resources with them.

Of course, this is assuming the AGI doesn't have it's own goals and just sees the whole of humanely as nuance to be stepped over in the same way humans will happy step over animals if they interfere with our goals.

Imo humanity has 10-20 years left max if we continue on this path. There can be no good outcome of AGI because it would even make sense for the AGI or those who control the AGI to be aligned with goals of humanity.

Re: AI 2027

#182

> AI has started to take jobs, but has also created new ones. Yeah nah, theres a key thing missing here, the number of jobs created needs to be more than the ones it's destroyed, and they need to be better paying and happen in time. History says that actually when this happens, an entire generation is yeeted on to the streets (see powered looms, Jacquard machine, steam powered machine tools) All of that cheap labour…

>History says that actually when this happens, an entire generation is yeeted on to the streets

History hasnt had to contend with a birth rate of 0.7-1.6.

It's kind of interesting that the elite capitalist media (economist, bloomberg, forbes, etc) is projecting a future crisis of both not enough workers and not enough jobs simultaneously.

Re: AI 2027

#184
post #134
post #4

Feels reasonable in the first few paragraphs, then quickly starts reading like science fiction. Would love to read a perspective examining "what is the slowest reasonable pace of development we could expect." This feels to me like the fastest (unreasonable) trajectory we could expect.

The slowest is a sudden and permanent plateau, where all attempts at progress turn out to result in serious downsides that make them unworkable.

Like an exponentially growing compute requirement for negligible performance gains, on the scale of the energy consumption of small countries? Because that is where we are, right now.

Re: AI 2027

#185

This is hilariously over-optimistic on the timescales. Like on this timeline we'll have a Mars colony in 10 years, immortality drugs in 15 and Half Life 3 in 20.

These timelines always assume that things progress as quickly as they can be conceived of, likely because these timelines come from "Ideas Guys" whose involvement typically ends at that point.

Orbital mechanics begs to disagree about a Mars colony in 10 years. Drug discovery has many steps that take time, even just the trials will take 5 years, let alone actually finding the drugs.

Re: AI 2027

#186

There's a lot to potentially unpack here, but idk, the idea that humanity entering hell (extermination) or heaven (brain uploading; aging cure) is whether or not we listen to AI safety researchers for a few months makes me question whether it's really worth unpacking.

Maybe people should just don’t listen to AI safety researchers for a few months? Maybe they are qualified to talk about inference and model weights and natural language processing, but not particularly knowledgeable about economics, biology, psychology, or… pretty much every other field of study?

The hubris is strong with some people, and a certain oligarch with a god complex is acting out where that can lead right now.

Re: AI 2027

#187

Much has been made in its article about autonomous agents ability to do research via browsing the web - the web is 90% garbage by weight (including articles on certain specialist topics). And it shows. When I used GPT's deep research to research the topic, it generated a shallow and largely incorrect summary of the issue, owning mostly to its inability to find quality material, instead it ended up going for places li…

Agreed. However, source curation and agents are two different parts of Deep Research. What if you provided that textbook to a reliable agent? Plug: We built https://RadPod.ai to allow you to do that, i.e. Deep Research on your data.

RadPod - what models do you use to power it?

Re: AI 2027

#188
post #74

I just spent some time trying to make claude and gemini make a violin plot of some polar dataframe. I've never used it and it's just for prototyping so i just went "apply a log to the values and make a violin plot of this polars dataframe". ANd had to iterate with them for 4/5 times each. Gemini got it right but then used deprecated methods I might be doing llm wrong, but i just can't get how people might actually do…

> had to iterate with them for 4/5 times each. Gemini got it right but then used deprecated methods How hard would it be to automate these iterations? How hard would it be to automatically check and improve the code to avoid deprecated methods? I agree that most products are still underwhelming, but that doesn't mean that the underlying tech is not already enough to deliver better LLM-based products. Lately I've been…

How hard would it be, in terms of the energy wasted for it? Is everything we can do worth doing, just for the sake of being able to?

Re: AI 2027

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. However, source curation and agents are two different parts of Deep Research. What if you provided that textbook to a reliable agent? Plug: We built https://RadPod.ai to allow you to do that, i.e. Deep Research on your data.

that might solve your sourcing problem, but now you need to have faith it will draw conclusions and parallels from the material accurately. That seems even harder than the original problem; I'll stick with decent search on quality source material.

The solution is a citation mechanism that points you directly where in the source material it comes from (which is what we tried to build). Easy verification is important for AI to have a net-benefit to productivity IMO.

Re: AI 2027

#190

Much has been made in its article about autonomous agents ability to do research via browsing the web - the web is 90% garbage by weight (including articles on certain specialist topics). And it shows. When I used GPT's deep research to research the topic, it generated a shallow and largely incorrect summary of the issue, owning mostly to its inability to find quality material, instead it ended up going for places li…

Agreed. However, source curation and agents are two different parts of Deep Research. What if you provided that textbook to a reliable agent? Plug: We built https://RadPod.ai to allow you to do that, i.e. Deep Research on your data.

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