Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

AI 2027

ai-2027.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

171–180 of 641 posts

Re: AI 2027

#171

Post by Quarrelsome »

IshKebab wrote: post #89
ctoth wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you share your detailed projection of what you expect the future to look like so I can compare?

Sure 5 years: AI coding assistants are a lot better than they are now, but still can't actually replace junior engineers (at least ones that aren't shit). AI fraud is rampant, with faked audio commonplace. Some companies try replacing call centres with AI, but it doesn't really work and everyone hates it. Tesla's robotaxi won't be available, but Waymo will be in most major US cities. 10 years: AI assistants are now u…

you should add a bit where AI is pushed really hard in places where the subjects have low political power, like management of entry level workers, care homes or education and super bad stuff happens.

Also we need a big legal event to happen where (for example) autonomous driving is part of a really big accident where lots of people die or someone brings a successful court case that an AI mortgage underwriter is discriminating based on race or caste. It won't matter if AI is actually genuinely responsible for this or not, what will matter is the push-back and the news cycle.

Maybe more events where people start successfully gaming deployed AI at scale in order to get mortgages they shouldn't or get A-grades when they shouldn't.

Re: AI 2027

#172

Post by dr_dshiv »

But, I think this piece falls into a misconception about AI models as singular entities. There will be many instances of any AI model and each instance can be opposed to other instances.

So, it’s not that “an AI” becomes super intelligent, what we actually seem to have is an ecosystem of blended human and artificial intelligences (including corporations!); this constitutes a distributed cognitive ecology of superintelligence. This is very different from what they discuss.

This has implications for alignment, too. It isn’t so much about the alignment of AI to people, but that both human and AI need to find alignment with nature. There is a kind of natural harmony in the cosmos; that’s what superintelligence will likely align to, naturally.

Re: AI 2027

#173

Post by a3w »

porphyra wrote: post #41

Seems very sinophobic. Deepseek and Manus have shown that China is legitimately an innovation powerhouse in AI but this article makes it sound like they will just keep falling behind without stealing.

How so? Spoiler: US dooms mankind, China is the saviour in the two endings.

Re: AI 2027

#174

Post by popalchemist »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #172

But, I think this piece falls into a misconception about AI models as singular entities. There will be many instances of any AI model and each instance can be opposed to other instances. So, it’s not that “an AI” becomes super intelligent, what we actually seem to have is an ecosystem of blended human and artificial intelligences (including corporations!); this constitutes a distributed cognitive ecology of superinte…

For now.

Re: AI 2027

#175

Post by [deleted] »

AlphaAndOmega0 wrote: post #123
superconduct123 wrote: post #115

Why are the biggest AI predictions always made by people who aren't deep in the tech side of it? Or actually trying to use the models day-to-day...

Daniel Kokotajlo released the (excellent) 2021 forecast. He was then hired by OpenAI, and not at liberty to speak freely, until he quit in 2024. He's part of the team making this forecast. The others include: Eli Lifland, a superforecaster who is ranked first on RAND’s Forecasting initiative. You can read more about him and his forecasting team here. He cofounded and advises AI Digest and co-created TextAttack, an ad…

[deleted]

Re: AI 2027

#176

Post by skeeter2020 »

somerandomness wrote: post #161
torginus wrote: post #143

Much has been made in its article about autonomous agents ability to do research via browsing the web - the web is 90% garbage by weight (including articles on certain specialist topics). And it shows. When I used GPT's deep research to research the topic, it generated a shallow and largely incorrect summary of the issue, owning mostly to its inability to find quality material, instead it ended up going for places li…

Agreed. However, source curation and agents are two different parts of Deep Research. What if you provided that textbook to a reliable agent? Plug: We built https://RadPod.ai to allow you to do that, i.e. Deep Research on your data.

that might solve your sourcing problem, but now you need to have faith it will draw conclusions and parallels from the material accurately. That seems even harder than the original problem; I'll stick with decent search on quality source material.

Re: AI 2027

#177

Post by superconduct123 »

AlphaAndOmega0 wrote: post #123
superconduct123 wrote: post #115

Why are the biggest AI predictions always made by people who aren't deep in the tech side of it? Or actually trying to use the models day-to-day...

Daniel Kokotajlo released the (excellent) 2021 forecast. He was then hired by OpenAI, and not at liberty to speak freely, until he quit in 2024. He's part of the team making this forecast. The others include: Eli Lifland, a superforecaster who is ranked first on RAND’s Forecasting initiative. You can read more about him and his forecasting team here. He cofounded and advises AI Digest and co-created TextAttack, an ad…

I mean either researchers creating new models or people building products using the current models

Not all these soft roles

Re: AI 2027

#178

Post by 9dev »

IshKebab wrote: post #89
ctoth wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you share your detailed projection of what you expect the future to look like so I can compare?

Sure 5 years: AI coding assistants are a lot better than they are now, but still can't actually replace junior engineers (at least ones that aren't shit). AI fraud is rampant, with faked audio commonplace. Some companies try replacing call centres with AI, but it doesn't really work and everyone hates it. Tesla's robotaxi won't be available, but Waymo will be in most major US cities. 10 years: AI assistants are now u…

It’s soothing to read a realistic scenario amongst all of the ludicrous hype on here.

Re: AI 2027

#179

Post by skeeter2020 »

archagon wrote: post #99
reducesuffering wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will people finally wake up that the AGI X-Risk people have been right and we’re rapidly approaching a really fucking big deal? This forum has been so behind for too long. Sama has been saying this a decade now: “Development of Superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity” 2015 https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-1 Hinton, Ilya, Dario Amodei,…

And why are Altman's words worth anything? Is he some sort of great thinker? Or a leading AI researcher, perhaps? No. Altman is in his current position because he's highly effective at consolidating power and has friends in high places. That's it. Everything he says can be seen as marketing for the next power grab.

well, he did also have a an early (failed) YC startup - does that add cred?

Re: AI 2027

#180

Post by atemerev »

achierius wrote: post #156
atemerev wrote: post #55

What is this, some OpenAI employee fan fiction? Did Sam himself write this? OpenAI models are not even SOTA, except that new-ish style transfer / illustration thing that made all us living in Ghibli world for a few days. R1 is _better_ than o1, and open-weights. GPT-4.5 is disappointing, except for a few narrow areas where it excels. DeepResearch is impressive though, but the moat is in tight web search / Google Scho…

> superpersuasion _already works_ Is this demonstrated in any public research? Unless you just mean something like "good at persuading" -- which is different from my understanding of the term -- I find this hard to believe.

No, I meant "good at persuading", it is not 100% efficiency of course.
Post reply on HN