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Bikes in the age of tariffs

renehersecycles.com

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Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#81

Post by m463 »

yongjik wrote: post #69
rstarast wrote: post #11

With the huge differences in per-country tariff, there seems to be a large incentive to reroute and relabel imports. E.g., build a bike frame in China, export it to a sister company in Japan, and export it to the US from there, claiming production in Japan. How effective are existing controls against that? (And what are they even, I'm ignorant.)

This assumes the difference in tariff stays consistent while you are setting up your multinational supply chain. The truth is that nobody has any idea what Trump will say tomorrow, never mind next quarter.

> what Trump will say tomorrow

I'm trying to figure out what the real story is.

When I read this I wonder if everything is a negotiating tactic:

"Trading partners have repeatedly blocked multilateral and plurilateral solutions, including in the context of new rounds of tariff negotiations and efforts to discipline non-tariff barriers."

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regu... (wow, long url)

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#82

Post by davidw »

eesmith wrote: post #61
davidw wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends where you send your money. I've used this in the past and as a huge bonus, I don't get added to 29494494292 mailing lists https://app.oath.vote/

From what I can tell, all that does is send money to campaigns. While not getting junk mail is great, it doesn't build long-term grass roots organizations or resiliency. It doesn't support active protests, or get politicians to vigorously oppose what's happening to the US. I don't like how you can't see their recommendations for previous elections. That would help others judge if their "algorithm" is effective.

Well, yes, it's for campaign donations so it doesn't do those other things. Perhaps others can recommend groups that do a good job of those.

Their algorithm is basically just targeting close state races, if I recall correctly. So like a state Senator from Arizona or something. Those are races where small donations go further than whatever big ticket Senate race gets a lot of press.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#83

Post by logicalmind »

mmooss wrote: post #28

An essential question is, what is the political angle for Trump and the right wing? They know what they are doing. They know it will cause economic calamity. They often seek to create calamity and crisis - with Covid; spreading fear (of immigrants, etc.), hatred and violence; disrupting health, education, and housing; international peace and security (NATO, Ukraine, etc.). You never see them spreading calm and peace…

I've been thinking about this same thing. Trying to figure out what the endgame is with all of this. I can only come to one meaningful conclusion. Preparing for a future war with China. In that context, everything starts to make sense. The whole point of these tariffs is two pronged. One, make the rest of the world pick a side. And two, attempt to disconnect global dependence on China.

Making America "stand on its own two feet" would give it a lot of freedom in making choices that are at odds with future super powerful China that is no longer benevolent.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#84

Post by toomuchtodo »

palmotea wrote: post #78
toomuchtodo wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will quote a recent exchange: “How do you feel about this economic path? Are you concerned at all about the harm this will cause?” “It’ll hurt but I’d vote for him again in a heartbeat.” Certainly, always compassion and empathy for compassionate people. I am a very empathetic and compassionate person myself, I will give you the shirt off my back. For everyone else? Hard times ahead, as compassion and empathy have l…

> “How do you feel about this economic path? Are you concerned at all about the harm this will cause?” > “It’ll hurt but I’d vote for him again in a heartbeat.” What was done when the steel belt became the rust belt? Mostly finger wagging. I'm sure a lot of free traders would have the same response about all the harm their chosen polices caused. But of course, more compassion is expected from some poor guy in a rust…

I am not a software engineer. I don’t live on a coast. I grew up intermittently poor before I did well.

I am not unsympathetic to someone in the rust belt, anywhere really, who needs help. I don’t expect them to be a software engineer. We should provide robust social safety nets, guarantees of remote work in some fashion, whatever it takes to help these people live good lives until they retire or die. Tax me more, I insist. But, I don’t think that’ll make them happy nor what is on offer with this administration. It’s certainly not what they’re voting for. To reconfigure domestic manufacturing will take 5-10 years at least, and the evidence is robust the electorate is too unsophisticated and impatient for that.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#85

Post by SauciestGNU »

davidw wrote: post #42
osigurdson wrote: post #36

At least for high end mountain bikes, carbon frames are mostly made in Taiwan, not China.

Maybe everyone will start buying from https://argonautcycles.com/ - right?

I don't like carbon but I tend to prefer supporting USA and Taiwanese manufacturers. I'd love to see more domestic fabrication.

I was/am going to buy an Otso titanium frame, but they're made in Taiwan. Depending on the final price adjustment due to tariffs, it might actually be more cost effective for me to buy a Moots (made in America) frame to build.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#86

Post by bobchadwick »

giraffe_lady wrote: post #74
mmooss wrote: post #28

An essential question is, what is the political angle for Trump and the right wing? They know what they are doing. They know it will cause economic calamity. They often seek to create calamity and crisis - with Covid; spreading fear (of immigrants, etc.), hatred and violence; disrupting health, education, and housing; international peace and security (NATO, Ukraine, etc.). You never see them spreading calm and peace…

The tech-right of musk, thiel, vance, andreessen etc are enacting the "reboot" envisioned by curtis yarvin, he wrote about it calling it "the butterfly revolution" iirc. The rest are just trying to roll back 80 years of social change along with reestablishing segregation but as national policy this time. And yeah I think your read on how they'll manage the fallout of this is correct.

I think you’re right, and they’ve found their useful idiot in Trump.

As for Trump himself, I think he truly believes the rest of the world is taking advantage of the US and tariffs are a way of setting things right. My guess is that in his view, the country (or at the least the rich people he cares about) will benefit from all this.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#87

Post by hx8 »

yzydserd wrote: post #23
whynotmaybe wrote: post #19

> Let’s do the math: Take a kid’s bike that retails at a big box store for $ 150. Let’s assume that bike costs $ 30 to make. The rest of the cost is shipping to the U.S., warehousing, transport to the store, marketing, admin costs, customer service, warranty, retailer profits, etc. Whether the bike is made in China, Vietnam or Cambodia, the new 34-38% tariffs will increase the cost by ‘only’ $ 10-12. (The old tariffs…

And consumers will pay the $12. It won’t make it viable to make the bike in the US for < $40.

These blanket tariffs are less about protecting/encouraging domestic manufacturing and more about renegotiating trade. At this current framing ("reciprocal tariffs") there is an implication that they are short term. The negotiations with Canada and Mexico demonstrate a tic-for-tat game theory in effect.

Without introducing the tariffs as a long term position businesses will be less inclined to do the capital expenditure to manufacture in the US, even for businesses within the margin (mostly manufacturing with high energy inputs and low supply chain requirements) where it would be economical.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#88

Post by hx8 »

dfadsadsf wrote: post #48
rstarast wrote: post #11

With the huge differences in per-country tariff, there seems to be a large incentive to reroute and relabel imports. E.g., build a bike frame in China, export it to a sister company in Japan, and export it to the US from there, claiming production in Japan. How effective are existing controls against that? (And what are they even, I'm ignorant.)

I assume that if it’s done at scale it will change trade balance and middlemen country will see their import taxes rise. It actually creates self interest for countries to prevent this behavior and block such activity as it will hurt genuine export.

Or an interest for those countries to charge appropriate fees for such a service.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#89

Post by phalangion »

alkonaut wrote: post #51
whynotmaybe wrote: post #19

> Let’s do the math: Take a kid’s bike that retails at a big box store for $ 150. Let’s assume that bike costs $ 30 to make. The rest of the cost is shipping to the U.S., warehousing, transport to the store, marketing, admin costs, customer service, warranty, retailer profits, etc. Whether the bike is made in China, Vietnam or Cambodia, the new 34-38% tariffs will increase the cost by ‘only’ $ 10-12. (The old tariffs…

It's astonishning that we are discussing a price hike of asian made mass-market products (effectively your entire Amazon or Wal-Mart inventory from floor to ceiling) of 10% or more, and that's "just 10-13%" now? As if that alone wouldn't be felt more than the 2008 financial crisis in the pockets of Americans.

Or the inflation worries with 8% inflation

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#90

Post by stubish »

rstarast wrote: post #11

With the huge differences in per-country tariff, there seems to be a large incentive to reroute and relabel imports. E.g., build a bike frame in China, export it to a sister company in Japan, and export it to the US from there, claiming production in Japan. How effective are existing controls against that? (And what are they even, I'm ignorant.)

If people find hacks around the rules, they will use them if cost effective. I'm reminded of a train that used to shuffle freight a few hundred meters in order to qualify the goods for cheaper 'shipped by rail' taxes. But I can't find the article :-(
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