Seems very sinophobic. Deepseek and Manus have shown that China is legitimately an innovation powerhouse in AI but this article makes it sound like they will just keep falling behind without stealing.
AI 2027
41–50 of 641 posts
Re: AI 2027
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
What's an example of an intellectual task that you don't think AI will be capable of by 2027?
programming
Can you phrase this in a concrete way, so that in 2027 we can all agree whether it's true or false, rather than circling a "no true scotsman" argument?
Re: AI 2027
#43This is hilariously over-optimistic on the timescales. Like on this timeline we'll have a Mars colony in 10 years, immortality drugs in 15 and Half Life 3 in 20.
No, sooner lol. We'll have aging cures and brain uploading by late 2028. Dyson Swarms will be "emerging tech".
Re: AI 2027
#44Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.
What's an example of an intellectual task that you don't think AI will be capable of by 2027?
It won't be able to write a compelling novel, or build a software system solving a real-world problem, or operate heavy machinery, create a sprite sheet or 3d models, design a building or teach.
Long term planning and execution and operating in the physical world is not within reach. Slight variations of known problems should be possible (as long as the size of the solution is small enough).
Re: AI 2027
#45Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.
What's an example of an intellectual task that you don't think AI will be capable of by 2027?
Being accountable for telling the truth
Re: AI 2027
#46I just spent some time trying to make claude and gemini make a violin plot of some polar dataframe. I've never used it and it's just for prototyping so i just went "apply a log to the values and make a violin plot of this polars dataframe". ANd had to iterate with them for 4/5 times each. Gemini got it right but then used deprecated methods I might be doing llm wrong, but i just can't get how people might actually do…
Yes, you're most likely doing it wrong. I would like to add that "vibe coding" is a dreadful term thought up by someone who is arguably not very good at software engineering, as talented as he may be in other respects. The term has become a misleading and frankly pejorative term. A better, more neutral one is AI assisted software engineering.
This is an article that describes a pretty good approach for that: https://getstream.io/blog/cursor-ai-large-projects/
But do skip (or at least significantly postpone) enabling the 'yolo mode' (sigh).
Re: AI 2027
#47Re: AI 2027
#48Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.
That seems naive in a status quo bias way to me. Why and where do you expect AI progress to stop? It sounds like somewhere very close to where we are at in your eyes. Why do you think there won't be many further improvements?
I write bog-standard PHP software. When GPT-4 came out, I was very frightened that my job could be automated away soon, because for PHP/Laravel/MySQL there must exist a lot of training data.
The reality now is, that the current LLMs still often create stuff, that costs me more time to fix, than to do it myself. So I still write a lot of code myself. It is very impressive, that I can think about stopping writing code myself. But my job as a software developer is, very, very secure.
LLMs are very unable to build maintainable software. They are unable to understand what humans want and what the codebase need. The stuff they build is good-looking garbage. One example I've seen yesterday: one dev committed code, where the LLM created 50 lines of React code, complete with all those useless comments and for good measure a setTimeout() for something that should be one HTML DIV with two tailwind classes. They can't write idiomatic code, because they write code, that they were prompted for.
Almost daily I get code, commit messages, and even issue discussions that are clearly AI-generated. And it costs me time to deal with good-looking but useless content.
To be honest, I hope that LLMs get better soon. Because right now, we are in an annoying phase, where software developers bog me down with AI-generated stuff. It just looks good but doesn't help writing usable software, that can be deployed in production.
To get to this point, LLMs need to get maybe a hundred times faster, maybe a thousand or ten thousand times. They need a much bigger context window. Then they can have an inner dialogue, where they really "understand" how some feature should be built in a given codebase. That would be very useful. But it will also use so much energy that I doubt that it will be cheaper to let a LLM do those "thinking" parts over, and over again instead of paying a human to build the software. Perhaps this will be feasible in five or eight years. But not two.
And this won't be AGI. This will still be a very, very fast stochastic parrot.
Re: AI 2027
#49Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.
That seems naive in a status quo bias way to me. Why and where do you expect AI progress to stop? It sounds like somewhere very close to where we are at in your eyes. Why do you think there won't be many further improvements?
ahofmann didn't expect AI progress to stop. They expected it to continue, but not lead to AGI, that will not lead to superintelligence, that will not lead to a self-accelerating process of improvement.
So the question is, do you think the current road leads to AGI? How far down the road is it? As far as I can see, there is not a "status quo bias" answer to those questions.
Re: AI 2027
#50Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.
I predict AGI will be solved 5 years after full self driving which itself is 1 year out (same as it has been for the past 10 years).
Well said!