AI 2027 • Hacker News Board

Re: AI 2027

#11

Post by jstummbillig » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:13 PM UTC

ahofmann wrote: post #5

Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.

When is the earliest that you would have predicted where we are today?

Re: AI 2027

#12

Post by amarcheschi » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:15 PM UTC

I just spent some time trying to make claude and gemini make a violin plot of some polar dataframe. I've never used it and it's just for prototyping so i just went "apply a log to the values and make a violin plot of this polars dataframe". ANd had to iterate with them for 4/5 times each. Gemini got it right but then used deprecated methods

I might be doing llm wrong, but i just can't get how people might actually do something not trivial just by vibe coding. And it's not like i'm an old fart either, i'm a university student

Re: AI 2027

#13

Post by moab » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:17 PM UTC

> "OpenBrain (the leading US AI project) builds AI agents that are good enough to dramatically accelerate their research. The humans, who up until very recently had been the best AI researchers on the planet, sit back and watch the AIs do their jobs, making better and better AI systems."

I'm not sure what gives the authors the confidence to predict such statements. Wishful thinking? Worst-case paranoia? I agree that such an outcome is possible, but on 2--3 year timelines? This would imply that the approach everyone is taking right now is the right approach and that there are no hidden conceptual roadblocks to achieving AGI/superintelligence from DFS-ing down this path.

All of the predictions seem to ignore the possibility of such barriers, or at most acknowledge the possibility but wave it away by appealing to the army of AI researchers and industry funding being allocated to this problem. IMO it is the onus of the proposers of such timelines to argue why there are no such barriers and that we will see predictable scaling in the 2--3 year horizon.

Re: AI 2027

#14

Post by mitthrowaway2 » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:22 PM UTC

ahofmann wrote: post #5

Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.

What's an example of an intellectual task that you don't think AI will be capable of by 2027?

Re: AI 2027

#15

Post by zvitiate » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:23 PM UTC

There's a lot to potentially unpack here, but idk, the idea that humanity entering hell (extermination) or heaven (brain uploading; aging cure) is whether or not we listen to AI safety researchers for a few months makes me question whether it's really worth unpacking.

Re: AI 2027

#16

Post by amelius » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:24 PM UTC

zvitiate wrote: post #15

There's a lot to potentially unpack here, but idk, the idea that humanity entering hell (extermination) or heaven (brain uploading; aging cure) is whether or not we listen to AI safety researchers for a few months makes me question whether it's really worth unpacking.

If we don't do it, someone else will.

Re: AI 2027

#17

Post by Q6T46nT668w6i3m » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:25 PM UTC

This is worse than the mansplaining scene from Annie Hall.

Re: AI 2027

#18

Post by coolThingsFirst » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:25 PM UTC

mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #14

ahofmann wrote: post #5

Ok, I'll bite. I predict that everything in this article is horse manure. AGI will not happen. LLMs will be tools, that can automate away stuff, like today and they will get slightly, or quite a bit better at it. That will be all. See you in two years, I'm excited what will be the truth.

What's an example of an intellectual task that you don't think AI will be capable of by 2027?

programming

Re: AI 2027

#19

Post by dkdcwashere » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:26 PM UTC

beklein wrote: post #9

Older and related article from one of the authors titled "What 2026 looks like", that is holding up very well against time. Written in mid 2021 (pre ChatGPT) https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-... //edit: remove the referral tags from URL

> The alignment community now starts another research agenda, to interrogate AIs about AI-safety-related topics. For example, they literally ask the models “so, are you aligned? If we made bigger versions of you, would they kill us? Why or why not?” (In Diplomacy, you can actually collect data on the analogue of this question, i.e. “will you betray me?” Alas, the models often lie about that. But it’s Diplomacy, they are literally trained to lie, so no one cares.)

…yeah?

Re: AI 2027

#20

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 03, 2025, 5:27 PM UTC

Lionga wrote: post #7

AI now even got it's own fan fiction porn. It is so stupid not sure whether it is worse if it is written by AI or by a human.

[deleted]