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Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

forbes.com

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Re: Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

#11

Post by jqpabc123 »

To be such a smart guy, Musk does some really dumb stuff --- like alienating most of his customer base. Like investing billions to build an auto manufacturing academy for the Chinese --- now his primary competition.

The article highlights Tesla marketplace trouble --- but it ignores the other half of a "double whammy" that envelopes Tesla.

While Musk was busy shooting his company in the foot, investors were buying his stock like crazy. And not just the "dumb money" retail investors but also the "professional" institutional investors who do this for a living. They now hold 70% of TSLA stock.

The P/E of TSLA is around 130. The P/E of GM, Ford and Toyota are all less than 10. In other words, TSLA is outrageously overpriced --- by a factor of at least 10. If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius? I don't think so.

Tesla's stock price and Musk's business persona are dangling by a thread being held up by these "professional investors". In my opinion, out of fear for their upcoming performance bonuses.

Once this thread is cut, Musk will own one of the worst self inflicted financial disasters in the history of business.

Re: Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

#12

Post by Agingcoder »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #11

To be such a smart guy, Musk does some really dumb stuff --- like alienating most of his customer base. Like investing billions to build an auto manufacturing academy for the Chinese --- now his primary competition. The article highlights Tesla marketplace trouble --- but it ignores the other half of a "double whammy" that envelopes Tesla. While Musk was busy shooting his company in the foot, investors were buying hi…

I understand his shares are collateral for his various other ventures ( and most likely personal expenses ) - a Tesla stock crash might have other consequences

Re: Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

#13

Post by croes »

jordanb wrote: post #8
readthenotes1 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

-- “China had a plan when they let Tesla have a fully owned factory. They wanted the technology and the knowledge and experience. With that came a risk China would take that technology and build better stuff,” said shareholder Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. “That’s exactly what they’re doing. Now they’ve got really competitive vehicles, really competitive technology and the vehi…

This has been going on for decades. Any adult in Tesla management should have known that the chances of this happening were 100%.

This is how it works.

Germany did they same at the beginning of the last century, Japan also to the end.

Re: Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

#14

Post by itsdrewmiller »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #11

To be such a smart guy, Musk does some really dumb stuff --- like alienating most of his customer base. Like investing billions to build an auto manufacturing academy for the Chinese --- now his primary competition. The article highlights Tesla marketplace trouble --- but it ignores the other half of a "double whammy" that envelopes Tesla. While Musk was busy shooting his company in the foot, investors were buying hi…

>If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius?

Yes? In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company, along with his work at X/paypal and SpaceX. That's still incredible. (Obviously that skill hasn't transferred to government work though.)

Re: Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

#15

Post by lloyds_barclays »

readthenotes1 wrote: post #6
joejohnson wrote: post #4

BYD makes nicer cars at a cheaper price. The only advantage Tesla has is protectionism in the US market.

-- “China had a plan when they let Tesla have a fully owned factory. They wanted the technology and the knowledge and experience. With that came a risk China would take that technology and build better stuff,” said shareholder Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. “That’s exactly what they’re doing. Now they’ve got really competitive vehicles, really competitive technology and the vehi…

This is what Beijing government did on high speed railway system. Global railway manufactures were asked to hand over their technology, then they can begin to build, ship, and run their rolling stocks on Chinese railway. Beijing did this in early 2000s, and now they dominated the high speed railway standards in many countries.

Re: Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

#17

Post by ozmodiar »

stephen_g wrote: post #10
benguild wrote: post #5

Are TikTok users being steered to anti-Elon content as retaliation for DOGE or something?

I’m seeing a huge upswell in organic hate for Musk over the last little while across a bunch of forums online, as well as people making jokes about him in real life (this is in Australia), and the dropping Tesla sales seem to be confirming the trend. So the simplest explanation is not anyone ‘steering’ anything, but just that he’s absolutely trashed his own reputation outside what is a fairly narrow political persuas…

This even under sells it a bit. Trump style conservatism has turned toxic and Musk is heavily associated with its worst aspects (think the "salute"). I think a lot of Americans just don't get how angry the constant threats of tarrifs and attacks is making people. For a mental exercise they should try imagining how mad people were about egg prices, then imagine how much angrier they'd be if on top of that their largest partner started talking about wanting to explicitly ruin their economy if not outright invade them. It's insanity.

Re: Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

#18

Post by BMc2020 »

A lack of compelling new products is also a problem. Tesla’s most recent addition, Musk’s hard-edged Cybertruck that’s become a favorite target of anti-Elon vandals, has been a flop, selling about 40,000 units last year–a fifth of the annual volume Musk predicted. The vehicle has a shockingly bad record for quality, with eight recalls...

Re: Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

#19

Post by [deleted] »

lloyds_barclays wrote: post #15
readthenotes1 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

-- “China had a plan when they let Tesla have a fully owned factory. They wanted the technology and the knowledge and experience. With that came a risk China would take that technology and build better stuff,” said shareholder Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. “That’s exactly what they’re doing. Now they’ve got really competitive vehicles, really competitive technology and the vehi…

This is what Beijing government did on high speed railway system. Global railway manufactures were asked to hand over their technology, then they can begin to build, ship, and run their rolling stocks on Chinese railway. Beijing did this in early 2000s, and now they dominated the high speed railway standards in many countries.

[deleted]

Re: Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

#20

Post by jqpabc123 »

itsdrewmiller wrote: post #14
jqpabc123 wrote: post #11

To be such a smart guy, Musk does some really dumb stuff --- like alienating most of his customer base. Like investing billions to build an auto manufacturing academy for the Chinese --- now his primary competition. The article highlights Tesla marketplace trouble --- but it ignores the other half of a "double whammy" that envelopes Tesla. While Musk was busy shooting his company in the foot, investors were buying hi…

>If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius? Yes? In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company, along with his work at X/paypal and SpaceX. That's still incredible. (Obviously that skill hasn't transferred to government work though.)

In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company

Only $60 billion??? You're selling him way short.

At it's peak earlier this year, Tesla market cap was $1.5 TRILLION --- valued at more than all the world's major auto manufacturer's COMBINED. All while commanding only about 4% of unit sales.

Can you say O-U-T-R-A-G-E-O-U-S-L-Y over priced?

Since then, TSLA has lost almost half it's value --- and by any sane measure, it is still OUTRAGEOUSLY over priced.

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