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GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

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Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#191

Post by BarryMilo »

throw83288 wrote: post #153
wholinator2 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cmon man, look at nature, exponential curves almost never are actually exponential. Likely it's the first part of a logistic curve. Of course you can sit here all day and cry about the worst outcome for an event in the long list of things no one can predict. It sounds like you've made your mind up anyways and refuse to listen to reason, so why keep replying to literally everyone here telling you that your buying into…

Honestly I think moving up in a layer of abstraction is not the same as something resembling an intelligent agent.

If "resembling" intelligence was enough, all programmers would've been replaced long ago.

I've said this on here before, but replacing programmers means replacing our entire economy. Programming is, by and large, information processing. Guess how many business's services can be summed up as "information processing"? I'd wager most of them.

So maybe you're fucked, yes, but if so, we all are. Maybe we'll just have to find something to do other than exchange labor for sustenance...

Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#192

Post by debian3 »

alach11 wrote: post #184
RobinL wrote: post #4

Can anyone speak to weather it's worth going back to co-pilot from cursor. On the face of it $10 a month for unlimited messages looks compelling. Is it really unlimited? From these videos it's starting to look pretty similar to cursor...

I've been switching back and forth a bit at work recently, and I find Cursor still has a slight edge.

I use both too.

1 year ago Cursor was way ahead. Copilot had only one model and it was 4k input 4k output and it was forgetting about the previous reply. It was horrible.

One year later, the input context is at 128k token if you use vs code insider (64k for stable). You have multiples models, etc. they still cut corner like o1 barely answer (I guess they severely restrict the amount of output token) but sonnet 3.5 works surprisingly well.

They do have rate limit, you can check their issues tracker on GitHub, there are complaints about rate limits every day.

All in all, for $10 it’s good value. Cursor is also great for $20 and you get more models and more features.

Copilot is catching up fast, but they are not there yet. But they finally woke up.

Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#193

Post by BarryMilo »

bongodongobob wrote: post #135
throw83288 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Required time to move into a regulated engineering field is 4 years. 4 years in the AI world is currently a 10^4 = 10000x capability delta. It's not like the engineering and academia curmudgeons will replace their employees as much be utterly destroyed by the AI labs hiring maybe one or two tenured professors per field to make an internal startup and then letting them oversee what the megascaled reasoners spit out at…

You'd better get out of tech then. Change is inherent in the field. It's the whole point.

Yeah kinda seems like this guy would be better off pivoting to landscaping or baking or something. Maybe construction, there's always work in construction. Pays well too!

Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#194

Post by scarface_74 »

mywittyname wrote: post #106
throw83288 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Effectively they have completely automated SWE job, pair programmer was just a marketing speak, real intention is clear. Frankly, this was obvious to me since the Copilot Workspace announcement. It's so hard not for me to not slide completely into nihilistic despair as a student right now. I chose wrong, and now there is nothing I can do. Day in and day out I'm talking about my projects and internships as if my ent…

I've been in the industry long enough to have been around for a few crashes. My outlook is: this industry has always faced threats that looked like it was going to spell the end of our careers, but we always come out the other side better than ever. I don't think LLMs are fundamentally more threatening than off shore developers were. Sure, we lost jobs during that time, but businesses realized eventually that the pro…

I’ve been developing professionally since 1996. It’s different this time.

The first crash happened in 2000 not because most of the ideas were bad. But because enough potential customers weren’t on the internet.

Things didn’t recover until 2009-2010 when high speed internet was ubiquitous and more people started having computers in their pockets with high speed internet and the mobile app stores.

Between that time was the housing crash and the entire economy was in a free fall.

But, the Big Tech companies were hiring like crazy post COVID and it’s clear they don’t need that many workers. They definitely aren’t going to be doubling in head count over the next 10 years.

On the startup VC funding side, VCs only fund startups as a Ponzi scheme hoping they can either pawn their money losing startups on the public market - who has gotten wise to it - or via acquisitions and regulators are now much more leery of big acquisitions.

There are too many developers chasing too few jobs and with remote work, competition has gotten stiffer.

Just today someone posted on LinkedIn that they posted a job opening on LinkedIn, didn’t use Easy Apply, forced people to answer a questionnaire to slow down submissions and still got over 1000 applications in 3 hours.

AI is already removing the need to hire junior developers, slowly it will be good enough to lower the number of “senior” [sic] framework developers doing boilerplate.

Did I mention by hook or by crook, the federal government will be hiring less people and getting rid of employees and they will be flooding the market? All of those “dark matter developers” that were content with their government jobs are now going to be competing for private sector jobs

Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#195

Post by BarryMilo »

throw83288 wrote: post #181
suyash wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never loose hope, I'm assuming you are young if you're a student right now. Time is on your side, no matter where the industry goes, just flow with it, try to learn the new technologies so you're never behind others who are competing for same positions.

I want to learn, but I can't display that I learned them. You know the whole thing where real projects are more valuable than simply "I did a tutorial"? I struggle to find ways to apply LLMs practically beyond like one project (which is basically someone else's anyway). That's my struggle.

Do you not see the contradiction in what you're saying? "LLMs will replace us all... I can't find a use for LLMs".

Get to replacing us already. It's a gold rush, someone needs to get rich selling shovels.

Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#196

Post by daotoad »

throw83288 wrote: post #115
toprerules wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This must be your first hype cycle then. Most of us who are senior+ have been through these cycles before. There's always a 10% gap that makes it impossible to fully close the gap between needing a programmer and a machine doing the work. Nothing about the current evolution of LLMs suggests that they are close to solving this. The current messaging is basically, look how far we got this time, we will for sure reach A…

So Work=0.1^Ct where C is the development pace. Everything points to the C of AI being large. How quickly does Work become a rounding error? Sure, C=log(t), but it could also be C=ke^t. Everything to me feels like it's the latter, I really want to be wrong.

The thing is the total amount of work to do keeps increasing. We're putting firmware in lightbulbs now.

When everything includes software, someone needs to write and maintain that software.

If software becomes cheaper, we'll just use even more of it.

Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#197

Post by throw83288 »

scarface_74 wrote: post #194
mywittyname wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been in the industry long enough to have been around for a few crashes. My outlook is: this industry has always faced threats that looked like it was going to spell the end of our careers, but we always come out the other side better than ever. I don't think LLMs are fundamentally more threatening than off shore developers were. Sure, we lost jobs during that time, but businesses realized eventually that the pro…

I’ve been developing professionally since 1996. It’s different this time. The first crash happened in 2000 not because most of the ideas were bad. But because enough potential customers weren’t on the internet. Things didn’t recover until 2009-2010 when high speed internet was ubiquitous and more people started having computers in their pockets with high speed internet and the mobile app stores. Between that time was…

So what do you even do then? I'm completely at a loss now.

Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#198

Post by throw83288 »

azan_ wrote: post #182
mywittyname wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been in the industry long enough to have been around for a few crashes. My outlook is: this industry has always faced threats that looked like it was going to spell the end of our careers, but we always come out the other side better than ever. I don't think LLMs are fundamentally more threatening than off shore developers were. Sure, we lost jobs during that time, but businesses realized eventually that the pro…

> My outlook is: this industry has always faced threats that looked like it was going to spell the end of our careers, but we always come out the other side better than ever. I don't think there ever was as big treat to intellectual jobs. If LLMs ever get really good at programming (at the level of senior) there is 0 reason to keep majority of programmers employed. In addition it's not likely that it would be like ot…

I agree with you. I just don't know what to do anymore.

Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#199

Post by scarface_74 »

azan_ wrote: post #182
mywittyname wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been in the industry long enough to have been around for a few crashes. My outlook is: this industry has always faced threats that looked like it was going to spell the end of our careers, but we always come out the other side better than ever. I don't think LLMs are fundamentally more threatening than off shore developers were. Sure, we lost jobs during that time, but businesses realized eventually that the pro…

> My outlook is: this industry has always faced threats that looked like it was going to spell the end of our careers, but we always come out the other side better than ever. I don't think there ever was as big treat to intellectual jobs. If LLMs ever get really good at programming (at the level of senior) there is 0 reason to keep majority of programmers employed. In addition it's not likely that it would be like ot…

What do you define as a “senior developer”? Someone who “codez real gud” and can pass “leetCode hard” interviews or the tech industries definition of a senior developer who operates at a certain level of scope, impact and “dealing with ambiguity” and can deliver business value?

The former type of senior developer will be a commodity and see their pay stagnate or even go down as companies find cheaper labor, AI and more software development gets replaced with SaaS offerings especially with enterprise devs.

Re: GitHub Copilot: The Agent Awakens

#200

Post by throw83288 »

scarface_74 wrote: post #199
azan_ wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My outlook is: this industry has always faced threats that looked like it was going to spell the end of our careers, but we always come out the other side better than ever. I don't think there ever was as big treat to intellectual jobs. If LLMs ever get really good at programming (at the level of senior) there is 0 reason to keep majority of programmers employed. In addition it's not likely that it would be like ot…

What do you define as a “senior developer”? Someone who “codez real gud” and can pass “leetCode hard” interviews or the tech industries definition of a senior developer who operates at a certain level of scope, impact and “dealing with ambiguity” and can deliver business value? The former type of senior developer will be a commodity and see their pay stagnate or even go down as companies find cheaper labor, AI and mo…

> a senior developer who operates at a certain level of scope, impact and “dealing with ambiguity” and can deliver business value?

Is there any chance for me (a student) to become like this? I'm fine with coding changing (I just love computing) but I'm scared of the entirety of the field being completely torched.

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