Arguing about the decline of the US with idealism is just as meaningless as arguing about the prosperity of the US with idealism.
Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
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Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
#72I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…
Who is going to replace US? China? Its economy is on the decline with deflation, debts, real estates problem...etc. Europe? Japan?
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Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’d argue that the US is experiencing the transition from republic to empire that Rome did — also during a period of decline and political corruption. My point was that decline and regrowth, or even political transition as with Rome, happen frequently — not just decline followed by collapse (or “death”).
That's fair enough, but I feel like more modern examples are probably more relevant than Ancient Rome or China. The modern world offers significantly more ways for rival powers to assert influence in periods of weakness. I'd also argue that for most people anxious right now, the idea that America might be in a transitional period of turmoil, but that it'll emerge stronger in 20 years (I made up that number) is of col…
China is also a modern example: they endured a political collapse and century of humiliation, but successfully reconstituted themselves into a world power comparable in many ways to imperial China. Russia at the end of the USSR has also successfully endured a period of collapse, during which Putin rose to power and successfully navigated to being an influential country. (Though, less so than China and with remaining challenges.)
> I'd also argue that for most people anxious right now, the idea that America might be in a transitional period of turmoil, but that it'll emerge stronger in 20 years (I made up that number) is of cold comfort.
Trump is popular precisely on that platform — that we can do hard work now and reverse the decline in the US.
I think people would be comforted to know that it would only be twenty years — a lot of Millennials in that movement don’t believe they’ll see it, but are nevertheless doing it for their children (or relatives). A not infrequent sentiment is “it’s over for us bros, but do it for the kids!”
Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
#74I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…
We fought a literal civil war and bounced back. We've had multiple presidents assassinated but still had continuity of power. I doubt the U.S. is going anywhere anytime soon except maybe down a couple slots on the world's largest economies lists, and that's soley due to population growth.
Some of us who are optimistic believe that the uniqueness of the U.S. lies in its favorable environment for innovation (e.g. YC), so we hope to invent our way out of problems. We grew up on hopeful sci-fi and will stick to it until our bitter end.
Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
#75I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…
Who is going to replace US? China? Its economy is on the decline with deflation, debts, real estates problem...etc. Europe? Japan?
Behind this there is the wrong assumption that there must be a replacement for all.
For sure there will be gaps filled by other powers, but it's not necessary, we just got used to it.
Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
#76Americans may not think of themselves as an “empire,” but much of the world does. The average age of empires, according to a specialist on the subject, the late Sir John Bagot Glubb, is 250 years. After that, empires always die, often slowly but overwhelmingly from overreaching in the search for power. the US is 249 years old.
The US wasn’t an empire until at least around 1900 and maybe not truly until 1945. Sounds like we have another century left!
Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
From the outside we can see longe marriages as cute, but that is only that. Better switch partners and seek hapinness than to live in a bad marriage. People change and so should relationships if the people in it don't find them suitable. My views, which, again, all this discussion is not relevant to article.
That's such a reductionist view of marriage, but it's completely in sync with the modern fleeting pleasure seeker mentality, coupled with the end game of commoditisation. Don't like your car? Change it. Don't like your wife ? Change it > People change and so should relationships if the people in it don't find them suitable. If that's your starting point why even marry ?
That is not what I said but perhaps I should make things clearer.
Changing things is an option if all else fails, not change at first sign of distress.
We have one life and once it's gone, it's gone, so in my view we should try to have a happy one.
And no idea why I'm even discussing this in this thread, I have been happily married with my wife for almost 30 years!
Carl Sagan was an excellent scientist and a wonderful thinker, writer and communicator. He may have committed adultery, so what?
Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
#78I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap
> Thucydides Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon
> Allison led a study at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that, among a sample of 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.[3] That study, however, has come under considerable criticism, and scholarly opinion on the value of the Thucydides Trap concept—particularly as it relates to a potential military conflict between the United States and China—remains divided.
Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
#79Predict eh? I think Mr. Sagan saw a seemingly endless cycle. Cycles are kinda predictable because of their nature. However we might have a few chances to modify the cycle until the next giant civilication wants to dictate it all, because they think their way is the best way. Some would call that evolution. Try try try and try again until something works. And if it doesn't anymore. Try again again.
Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)
#80I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…
Who is going to replace US? China? Its economy is on the decline with deflation, debts, real estates problem...etc. Europe? Japan?
The problem is that China is still self sufficient. Huge country with a single timezone and great infrastructure and now has the expertise to produce for itself and enough people to buy its own products. Sure there's going to be some instability but even then the dictatorship is helping in preventing people to go too crazy. There's a reason musk is pushing for babies: the US is mostly empty land with a few large cities.