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Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

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Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#51

Post by zmgsabst »

icegreentea2 wrote: post #45
zmgsabst wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh — Roman Empire lasted in part something like 1500 years and imperial China around 2100 years. Average implies that it’s not a hard and fast rule they die at that particular point — as the following sentence implies.

That's true, but those empires also had periods of traumatic decline and upheaval. Given if you grant those entities continuity for those time scales, there were absolutely periods in the middle where everything went to shit. Using a 1500 year number for Rome includes having half the empire drop off and die. The more important idea isn't the 250 years (I agree), the idea is that it's not unreasonable to model aspects…

I’d argue that the US is experiencing the transition from republic to empire that Rome did — also during a period of decline and political corruption.

My point was that decline and regrowth, or even political transition as with Rome, happen frequently — not just decline followed by collapse (or “death”).

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#55

Post by MangoCoffee »

kennysoona wrote: post #39

I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…

Who is going to replace US? China? Its economy is on the decline with deflation, debts, real estates problem...etc. Europe? Japan?

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#56

Post by bilbo0s »

jimkleiber wrote: post #6
Gibbon1 wrote: post #2

My current joke is we've overshot the point where nepo baby political and business leaders are smart enough to maintain our technological civilization.

I think the people are capable, given the right environment. I think what destroys it is not letting people in Congress write laws in relative secrecy. When the most powerful, including the political parties, can monitor how every Congress person votes in committee, they can micro-manage and micro-terrorize them into doing what they want. Let them deliberate without us watching over their shoulders (because it's most…

Let them deliberate without us watching over their shoulders

That’s a recipe for disaster. The Founders came up with a Constitution for a reason. Public debate is not our problem. Any more than freedom of speech is our problem.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#57

Post by icegreentea2 »

zmgsabst wrote: post #51
icegreentea2 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true, but those empires also had periods of traumatic decline and upheaval. Given if you grant those entities continuity for those time scales, there were absolutely periods in the middle where everything went to shit. Using a 1500 year number for Rome includes having half the empire drop off and die. The more important idea isn't the 250 years (I agree), the idea is that it's not unreasonable to model aspects…

I’d argue that the US is experiencing the transition from republic to empire that Rome did — also during a period of decline and political corruption. My point was that decline and regrowth, or even political transition as with Rome, happen frequently — not just decline followed by collapse (or “death”).

That's fair enough, but I feel like more modern examples are probably more relevant than Ancient Rome or China. The modern world offers significantly more ways for rival powers to assert influence in periods of weakness.

I'd also argue that for most people anxious right now, the idea that America might be in a transitional period of turmoil, but that it'll emerge stronger in 20 years (I made up that number) is of cold comfort.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#59

Post by edoceo »

chmorgan_ wrote: post #35

Carl Sagan may very well be correct, however he didn't make predictions about when such an event might occur, and his predictions were aimed at avoiding it occurring at all. I've seen this article appear several times in two distinct time periods, one was after Trump was elected the first time, and the second is now. Why is it popular now? Because people opposed to the present political party want to portray it as a…

Threatening to close the Dept of Education and blocking scientific research is not an improvement. And nothing has changed on Border, Drugs, ME or UKR - same as it was. Bro just talked a game and some believe without evidence

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#60

Post by [deleted] »

lm28469 wrote: post #31
pcardoso wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the outside we can see longe marriages as cute, but that is only that. Better switch partners and seek hapinness than to live in a bad marriage. People change and so should relationships if the people in it don't find them suitable. My views, which, again, all this discussion is not relevant to article.

That's such a reductionist view of marriage, but it's completely in sync with the modern fleeting pleasure seeker mentality, coupled with the end game of commoditisation. Don't like your car? Change it. Don't like your wife ? Change it > People change and so should relationships if the people in it don't find them suitable. If that's your starting point why even marry ?

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