> 1. The USA will likely address climate change directly through technology (geoengineering) vs rapid degrowth (the only two plausible means of stabilizing the climate)
That climate change can be addressed through technology is of course true, but equating that with geoengineering is pure insanity. Also, there's _nothing_ that indicates that the US will address this area at all, especially not now, with an administration that doesn't even believe that there's anything to address!
> 2. The USA will likely avoid war.
I do not understand how you can draw that conclusion after seeing the new president threaten even _allies_ with war in just a few weeks in office.
> 3. The USA will likely experience large-scale economic growth due to regulatory change, efficient government services, compounding industrial ecosystems and robotics
Which efficient government services are you talking about? The ones provided by skilled bureaucrats being replaced due to lacking "loyalty"?
> 4. The American scientific establishment and education system are likely to be transformed to create massive jumps in productivity (in the age of AI)
Transformed by having their funding slashed?
> We already have smarter AI than 99% of humans
You seem to be sampling a very strange subset of humans.
> There is little doubt that this will be applied across society at an unbelievable scale and speed.
There's, in fact, lots of doubt.
> In short, China’s economic model (low-corruption communistic capitalism) is working way better than liberal democratic models.
For certain things, sure. For other things (like freedom of speech, personal liberties): very much not.
> There are very few ways to compete with China without very strong leadership — and now, it seems, we have that chance.
So, you want a "strong leader". How does that go down in history again? Anyway – do you think that in addition to being "strong" there are other aspects of a leader that you might want to have in addition? Like, I don't know, intelligence and compassion? Or are you just going for strength to smack everyone over the head?
> And, with the global distribution of high-intelligence AI, there is plenty of room for distributed, decentralized local growth that can enable all people around the world to participate in economic development and super-abundant resources.
Absolute meaningless dribble. It just needs a sprinkle of blockchain or something.
> Things will continue to accelerate. And the biggest wellbeing challenges will come from overabundance of resources rather than their scarcity.
So when can people suffering under these authoritarian strongmen expect this abundance? How much suffering will they have to take before utopia hits? Or, alternatively, before we can laugh you lot off for a few generations again.