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Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

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Re: Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

#311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most suggestions of this nature fail to explain how they will deal with the problem of people just seeing there’s no point in trying for more. On a personal level, I’ve heard people from Norway describe this problem for personal income tax—at some point (notably below a typical US senior software engineer’s earnings) the amount of work you need to put in for the marginal post-tax krone is so high it’s just demotivati…

> the amount of work you need to put in for the marginal post-tax krone is so high it’s just demotivating This is a cliche you hear from right winger in any country that has a progressive tax system. Regarding Norway, taxes aren't in the same ballpark as in some US blue states. Also, it's a very simplistic view to think that people are only motivated by money. Counter examples abound.

> This is a cliche you hear from right winger in any country that has a progressive tax system

Not a cliché - a fact. I'll explain to you.

The incentive structure of progressive taxation is wrong: it only works for the few percent that are extremely money hungry: the few that are willing to work for lower and lower percentage gains.

Normal people say "enough" and they give up once they have the nice house and a few toys (and some retirement money with luck). In New Zealand that is something like USD1.5 million.

I'm on a marginal rate of 39% in New Zealand. I am well off but I literally am not motivated to try and earn anything extra because the return is not enough for the extra effort or risk involved. No serial entrepreneurship for me because it only has downside risk. If I invest and win then 39%+ is taken as tax, but even worse is that if I lose then I can't claim my time back. Even financial losses only claw back against future income: and my taxable income could move to $0 due to COVID-level-event and so my financial risk is more than what it might naively appear.

Taxation systems do not fairly reward for risk. Especially watch people with no money taking high risks and pay no insurance because the worst that can happen to them is bankruptcy.

New Zealand loses because the incentive structure for a founder is broken. We are an island so the incentive structure should revolve around bringing in overseas income (presuming the income is spent within NZ). Every marginal dollar brought into the economy helps all citizens and the government.

The incentives were even worse when I was working but was trying to found a company. I needed to invest time, which had the opportunity cost of the wages I wouldn't get as a developer (significant risk that can't be hedged and can't be claimed against tax). 9 times out of 10 a founder wins approximately $0: so expected return needs to be > 10x. A VC fund needs something like > 30x return from the 1 or 2 winning investments. I helped found a successful business but high taxation has meant I haven't reached my 30x yet - chances are I'll be dead before I get a fair return for my risk. I'm not sure I've even reached 10x given I don't know the counterfactual of what my employee income would have become. This is for a business earning good export income.

Incentive structures matter - we understand that for employees - however few governments seem to understand that for businesses.

Most people are absolutely ignorant of even basic economics. The underlying drive is the wish to take from those that have more than them. We call it the tall poppy syndrome down here.

(reëdited to add clarity)

Re: Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weapons inherently aren’t evil, which is why everyone has kitchen knives. People use weapons to do evil. The problem with building AI weapons is that eventually it will be in the hands of people who are morally bankrupt and therefore will use them to do evil.

A kitchen knife is a tool. It can be used as a weapon. A car is a tool. It can be used as a weapon. Even water and air can be used as a weapon if you try hard enough. There is probably nothing on this planet that couldn't be used as a weapon. That said, I do not think AI weapons are a reasonable thing to build for any war, for any country, for any reason - even if the enemy has them.

> That said, I do not think AI weapons are a reasonable thing to build for any war, for any country, for any reason - even if the enemy has them.

So you're in favor of losing a war and becoming a subject of the enemy? While it's certainly tempting to think that unilateralism can work, I can hardly see how.

Re: Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

#313

Many will hate to hear this but the only solution is one world government or at least a unipolar order that reduces the survival need to participate in arms races. Arms race dynamics between nations will be the end of our species.

I think having nations competing against each other is a good thing. Governments become corrupted and collapse: it would be a shame if the only world government fell into the hands of a dictator.

That being said the only way I could imagine we'd get a single world order is one country dominating everyone else, just like superpowers and regional powers dominate their respective parts of the globe.

Never ever ever are people just going to give up their control out of some form of "enlightenment" that has never existed among the human race.

Re: Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

#314
post #301
post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And indiscriminate has a cost that can slow people from using them. Imagine you have a weapon that can find and kill all the 'bad guys'. Would you not be in a morally compromised position if you didn't use it? You're letting innocents die every moment you don't. * warning definitions of bad guys may differ leading to further conflict.

The logic of this argument implies we should develop weapons with maximal collateral damage to deter their usage.

Which begs the question of if we can escape the Red Queen hypothesis.

Personally I don't think we can as a species.

Re: Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

#315
post #235

Why on earth would a for profit company refuse a potential line of profit? They already dumped "do no evil" many years ago and they are now all in on fuck the poor and fuck the rest: I'm making profits and all is fine. Google makes money and they don't appear to care how - its all about the money.

This is the case for boycotts, so a for-profit company loses when they make immoral decisions that destroy the brand and impact the bottom line.

Yes, because this is crossing the line…

Re: Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

#316

Why on earth would a for profit company refuse a potential line of profit? They already dumped "do no evil" many years ago and they are now all in on fuck the poor and fuck the rest: I'm making profits and all is fine. Google makes money and they don't appear to care how - its all about the money.

The problem with this is that if companies are just profit maximizers then one of the things it should do is to realign the government. After all, a friendlier government can help to decrease regulation and increase incentives. Plus, in a healthy economy if everyone is bribing the government shouldn’t it all cancel out? Well it turns out the poor don’t bribe the government very often, so they are easily ignored. And…

Companies already are just profit maximizers and they already have done a lot to realign the government.

Of course it's not that as bad as you describe because it's not as simple as you describe.

Re: Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

#317

I want to be upset over this in an exasperated expression of oddly naive "why can't we all get along?" frame of mind. I want to, because I know how I would like the world to look like, but as a species we, including myself, continually fail to disappoint when it comes nearly guaranteed self-destruction. I want to get upset over it, but I sadly recognize the reality of the why this is not surprising to anyone. We actu…

A vague “stuff is happening behind closed doors” isn’t enough of a reason to build AI weapons. If you shared a specific weapon that could only be countered with AI weapons, that might make me feel differently. But right now I can’t imagine a reason we’d need or want robots to decide who to kill. When people talk about AI being dangerous, or possibly bringing about the end of the world, I usually disagree. But AI weap…

I agree. I don't think there's really a case for the US developing any offensive weapons. Geographically, economically and politically, we are not under any sort of credible threat. Maybe AI based missile defense or something, but we already have a completely unjustified arsenal of offensive weapons and a history of using them amorally.

Re: Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

#319

I want to be upset over this in an exasperated expression of oddly naive "why can't we all get along?" frame of mind. I want to, because I know how I would like the world to look like, but as a species we, including myself, continually fail to disappoint when it comes nearly guaranteed self-destruction. I want to get upset over it, but I sadly recognize the reality of the why this is not surprising to anyone. We actu…

In WWII neither side used poison gas. It doesn’t have to be this way.

It took the use of poison gas to get countries on board, and some will still use it. Just more carefully.

Would China, Russia, or Iran agree to such a preemptive AI weapons ban? Doubtful, it’s their chance to close the gap. I’m onboard if so, but I don’t see anything happening on that front until well after they start dominating the landscape.

Re: Google drops pledge not to use AI for weapons or surveillance

#320
post #276
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The better logical conclusion of that argument is that the US needs to remove him, and replace him with someone who isn't threatening innocent people. That it won't is a mixture of cowardice, cynical opportunism, and complicity with unprovoked aggression. In which case, I posit that yes, if you're fine with threatening or inflicting violence on innocent people, you don't have a moral right to 'self-defense' . It make…

Ya go poke people with nukes and see how that works out

You are making an excellent argument for nuclear proliferation.
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