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The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

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Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#81
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese certainly think like this. The North Koreans are certainly on a constant war footing. The world is an extremely hostile place.

[flagged]

> even the most hawks Americans can only think about how to defend and A2/AD if the Chinese intervene in taiwan

Works both ways.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#82
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And who would ever even attack the US? Massive military spending and they are isolated from all the potential enemies behind two huge oceans. Average american should worry about civil war or maybe nukes. Nothing else will ever reach them.

They may not attack the US directly like the Japanese did, but China may want to take over its neighbours to expand. Just like Russia could.

FWIW, Japan attacked a military base in am American territory, not then a state, and never had serious plans to invade America proper. They thought they could knock America out of the fight before America realized it was even in a fight with a decisive demoralizing victory that would leave Americans feeling that ceding control of the Pacific to Japan was rational and practical.

Obviously that theory didn't work for Japan then, but there's nothing to say nobody else couldn't make the same mistake again. The mentality of the American public may have changed considerably since WWII, maybe Americans are already demoralized and no longer certain of their own righteousness. Maybe the would-be attacker has some reason to believe they can influence the mentality of the American public using control of mass media popular with Americans. Or maybe they're just so certain of themselves and their advantages they think America will back down when push comes to shove because if the positions were reversed, they would back down and they project that onto America.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#83
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese certainly think like this. The North Koreans are certainly on a constant war footing. The world is an extremely hostile place.

[flagged]

China is actively annexing their neighbors in the ASEAN sea and constantly frustrated the US intervenes.

Their entire military deployment around there is based on fighting the US intervening in their military expansion, eg, against the Philippines.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#85
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese certainly think like this. The North Koreans are certainly on a constant war footing. The world is an extremely hostile place.

[flagged]

> not a single chinese have a single thought about going war with the US

Odd. Then who in China feels the need to outcompete US military technology? Why is China developing missiles like DF-27 that are difficult to counter and take out aircraft carriers? Who is coming up with these ideas and for what purposes?

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#86
Interested readers may enjoy Freedom's Forge by Arthur Herman, which chronicles, amongst other things, how Henry Kaiser led the rapid construction of the shipyards used to build the merchant fleet that helped the United States win the second world war.

The book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/208564/freedoms-for...

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#88

This will never succeed because the economies of scale are nonexistent without dominance in the commercial shipbuilding market. War planners should have pushed to repeal the Jones Act decades ago, but now Chinese shipbuilding capacity is over 230 times greater than ours because of their success in civilian shipbuilding. The proposed measures in this aricle are too little too late. The only logical course of action at…

All kinds of people from all kinds of places read HN, so maybe better to use more general language - referring to “Chinese shipbuilding capacity is over 230 times greater than _ours_”

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#89
I don't share the confidence in large ships being the future of naval anything. Even in the 90s, surface ships were easy pickings for submarines and antiship missiles. Smaller ships acting as drone carriers combined with arsenal ships can allow local power projection to keep shipping lanes open.

Submarines and aircraft remain the safest, and best way to deliver offensive firepower. The aircraft carrier does have a role, but it is far behind the contact line.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#90
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China reunifies Taiwan: 100% US responds militarily: not likely but possible

The only way the US will not respond militarily is if Taiwan chooses unification. By all accounts, Taiwan will not choose that. The US military has not been strategically shifting to the Indo-Pacific for more than 10 years now for no reason.

If China acted quickly in disabling American military assets in the region, it is conceivably possible that Taiwanese people could be demoralized and surrender to the PRC before America has a chance to muster more forces to the region. Even if this definitely wouldn't be possible, it's still possible that the PRC thinks otherwise and will try it, as Japan once did.
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