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The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

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Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#61

Post by jcgl »

lesuorac wrote: post #38
pzo wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Higher wages in theory should be linked in higher productivity and output per worker in the US due to deep skillsets I don't think this always have to be true, e.g. I'm polish and used work in uk and by crossing border to uk overnight I increased my salary 2-3x but that doesn't mean my productivity increased 2x. You want to google concept called "Dutch Disease", an economic phenomenon where a resource boom (like oi…

> You want to google concept called "Dutch Disease", an economic phenomenon where a resource boom (like oil) causes currency appreciation and decline in other sectors. Norway and the Netherlands faced this issue. Isn't this just the downside of comparative advantage? Like you have the classic example of island 1 can make 5 apples or 15 oranges and island 2 can make 15 apples or 5 oranges so island 1 makes 15 oranges…

I think that that’s the crux of the issue—efficiency is very often in tension with resilience. In an economic system that optimizes for efficiency above all, you end up with fragility. Not only do you have fragility, but because the system is complex, the fragility shows up in unpredictable places.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#63

Post by poisonarena »

raverbashing wrote: post #47
Animats wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? The Jones Act was supposed to help American shipbuilding. It's a requirement that vessels which operate between US ports must be made in the US, crewed by the US, and flagged to the US. It didn't help much, but that was the plan. China's shipbuilding industry is so big that their aircraft carriers are being constructed by shipyards that make large cargo ships. Aerial photos show shipyards with drydocks full of c…

> The Jones Act was supposed to help American shipbuilding Yes And this is what happens. Naive protectionism 101

chuckling to myself in my bed while reading this comment after working 12 hours on my oil tanker today. I am an OS in the SIU and i spend every night reading a little HN to motivate me to finish my software hobby projects so i can escape this hell

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#64

Post by throwaway48476 »

pbmonster wrote: post #14
peepeepoopoo105 wrote: post #6

This will never succeed because the economies of scale are nonexistent without dominance in the commercial shipbuilding market. War planners should have pushed to repeal the Jones Act decades ago, but now Chinese shipbuilding capacity is over 230 times greater than ours because of their success in civilian shipbuilding. The proposed measures in this aricle are too little too late. The only logical course of action at…

> the 747 CMC is based on a reliable and proven aircraft with existing economies of scale. This is no longer true, unfortunately. The assembly line tooling has been decommissioned and scrapped, the supply chain is shut down, essential personnel has retired. If you want to restart the line, you would have to fund the entire 747-8 program over again from the ground up.

The CMC concept has been replaced by Rapid Dragon.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#65

Post by plastic3169 »

antalis wrote: post #60
plastic3169 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And who would ever even attack the US? Massive military spending and they are isolated from all the potential enemies behind two huge oceans. Average american should worry about civil war or maybe nukes. Nothing else will ever reach them.

They may not attack the US directly like the Japanese did, but China may want to take over its neighbours to expand. Just like Russia could.

I appreciate the worry for everyone else. Truly it makes a huge difference in global politics. Like parent I am still surprised how paranoid the US seems. It’s almost like growing up overprotected you become extremely fearful. There is almost no practical cost to US with going into war so the result is that US is constantly fighting and makes it the core focus of the society (along with innovation and more positive sides of US culture)

Pearl Harbor was devastating and Hawaiians probably have plenty of reason to worry about the defense going forward. Then again I looked up where it is and I am shocked how remote the islands are. I think it was first and foremost symbolic attack. Not a real threat to west coast.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#66

Post by foldr »

vuurmot wrote: post #48
suraci wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we ever did get in a war with them is that normal to think like this? do most americans think like this?

looking at this from the other side of the world, it feels like americans are so insecure, as if they are constantly frightened

There’s a pretty realistic China/US war scenario. China invades Taiwan and then the US responds militarily. I’m not saying that this is a particularly likely scenario, but it’s far from impossible.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#67

Post by lotsofpulp »

pas wrote: post #15
leoedin wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will never succeed because the economies of scale are nonexistent without dominance in the commercial shipbuilding market. This is what politicians just don’t seem to realise about industry and engineering. People get good at things by doing them repeatedly and optimising. That’s the only proven way. So of course if we build a couple of naval ships every decade, maybe a giant train line every 30 years or simil…

Not just politicians in general, but people, of course, are always surprised how expensive housing is, but then reject any kind of streamlined mass-manufactured option. They are conditioned to worship at the altar of small businesses and good ol' craftsmanship. (And plot after plot they blindly erect yet another replica of the standard American Dream with the compulsory backyard where they truly can be free, and cond…

The standard tract built house erected in 100 days by DR Horton/Lennar/etc is the streamlined, mass manufactured option.

Any more streamline than that is apparently more costly or otherwise unappealing to people. It isn’t not small businesses building most homes in the US, they are large, and sometimes publicly traded businesses.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#68

Post by briandear »

peepeepoopoo105 wrote: post #6

This will never succeed because the economies of scale are nonexistent without dominance in the commercial shipbuilding market. War planners should have pushed to repeal the Jones Act decades ago, but now Chinese shipbuilding capacity is over 230 times greater than ours because of their success in civilian shipbuilding. The proposed measures in this aricle are too little too late. The only logical course of action at…

Naval vessels aren’t outdated tech. It allows longer term force projection you can’t get without ground-based. I can stick a destroyer off the coast and leave it there as long as I want. It’s a lot harder to build an airbase. Submarines can stay on station almost indefinitely.

Transporting tanks, artillery, vehicles, is difficult by air when done at scale. Air extraction of a SEAL team is done by helicopters. And those helicopters need to land somewhere. They need fuel and crews and supplies. Forward deployed ground bases are logistically more difficult than having a carrier group off the coast.

As a missile platform, there are certainly alternatives such as the 747 or even space based weaponry, but naval vessels are more than simply weapons platforms.

Also air-based missile platforms depend on a guarantee of air superiority —- it would be naïve to suggest that the U.S. would have that air superiority in all theaters of battle.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#69

Post by suraci »

plastic3169 wrote: post #65
antalis wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may not attack the US directly like the Japanese did, but China may want to take over its neighbours to expand. Just like Russia could.

I appreciate the worry for everyone else. Truly it makes a huge difference in global politics. Like parent I am still surprised how paranoid the US seems. It’s almost like growing up overprotected you become extremely fearful. There is almost no practical cost to US with going into war so the result is that US is constantly fighting and makes it the core focus of the society (along with innovation and more positive s…

[flagged]

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#70

Post by suraci »

foldr wrote: post #66
vuurmot wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

looking at this from the other side of the world, it feels like americans are so insecure, as if they are constantly frightened

There’s a pretty realistic China/US war scenario. China invades Taiwan and then the US responds militarily. I’m not saying that this is a particularly likely scenario, but it’s far from impossible.

China reunifies Taiwan: 100%

US responds militarily: not likely but possible

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