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The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

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Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#31

Post by ajb »

pas wrote: post #15
leoedin wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will never succeed because the economies of scale are nonexistent without dominance in the commercial shipbuilding market. This is what politicians just don’t seem to realise about industry and engineering. People get good at things by doing them repeatedly and optimising. That’s the only proven way. So of course if we build a couple of naval ships every decade, maybe a giant train line every 30 years or simil…

Not just politicians in general, but people, of course, are always surprised how expensive housing is, but then reject any kind of streamlined mass-manufactured option. They are conditioned to worship at the altar of small businesses and good ol' craftsmanship. (And plot after plot they blindly erect yet another replica of the standard American Dream with the compulsory backyard where they truly can be free, and cond…

It's true that small businesses and craftsmanship are not efficient, but that's not usually the main reason why houses are expensive. They are usually expensive because of planning controls. Look at the price of land: in places where houses are expensive, land with planning permission is by far the largest component of the cost of a house. Building work being expensive is usually a consequence of this.

Having said that, I've no idea where you live so it could be completely different in your area

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#32

Post by w0de0 »

sgt101 wrote: post #21
aprilthird2021 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question, is it at all possible for us to have an industrial revitalization given that we have the highest average wages in the world?

- high wages are not evenly spread geographically in the USA - high wages are not evenly spread demographically in the USA - the wage distribution seems to me to be unusual in that it has a very long fat tail whereas the UK's is very clustered (I've forgotten the right term) on the median. - modern industry can be highly automated - modern logistics mean that industry can be decentralised I believe that the last two…

> the UK's is very clustered (I've forgotten the right term) on the median.

Normal (Gaussian) distribution?

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#33

Post by suraci »

leoedin wrote: post #7
peepeepoopoo105 wrote: post #6

This will never succeed because the economies of scale are nonexistent without dominance in the commercial shipbuilding market. War planners should have pushed to repeal the Jones Act decades ago, but now Chinese shipbuilding capacity is over 230 times greater than ours because of their success in civilian shipbuilding. The proposed measures in this aricle are too little too late. The only logical course of action at…

> This will never succeed because the economies of scale are nonexistent without dominance in the commercial shipbuilding market. This is what politicians just don’t seem to realise about industry and engineering. People get good at things by doing them repeatedly and optimising. That’s the only proven way. So of course if we build a couple of naval ships every decade, maybe a giant train line every 30 years or simil…

> If we ever did get in a war with them

is that normal to think like this?

do most americans think like this?

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#34

Post by jltsiren »

pzo wrote: post #30

Didn't warfare changed big enough that big navy might be more obsolete? Ukraine-Russia conflict showed that you can make hordes of cheap naval drones that can easily harass your very expensive ships or put them out of combat. By now probably you can still make more advanced but cheaper underwater drones, smart torpedos etc.

Vulnerable, not obsolete. Unless the war is in North America, you need cargo ships to get the heavy equipment and fuel there. And then you need a navy to protect the cargo ships from those cheap naval drones and other threats.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#35

Post by gustavf »

suraci wrote: post #33
leoedin wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will never succeed because the economies of scale are nonexistent without dominance in the commercial shipbuilding market. This is what politicians just don’t seem to realise about industry and engineering. People get good at things by doing them repeatedly and optimising. That’s the only proven way. So of course if we build a couple of naval ships every decade, maybe a giant train line every 30 years or simil…

> If we ever did get in a war with them is that normal to think like this? do most americans think like this?

In an article about naval shipbuilding I would say thats a normal thought.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#36

Post by relaxing »

suraci wrote: post #33
leoedin wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will never succeed because the economies of scale are nonexistent without dominance in the commercial shipbuilding market. This is what politicians just don’t seem to realise about industry and engineering. People get good at things by doing them repeatedly and optimising. That’s the only proven way. So of course if we build a couple of naval ships every decade, maybe a giant train line every 30 years or simil…

> If we ever did get in a war with them is that normal to think like this? do most americans think like this?

Defense planners think like this.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#37

Post by metalman »

Impossible.Beurocracy.Insurance.Unions.No demographic with the skills that must be learned early in life to do the work, hard ,dangerous work that requires trust and inate skills to acomplish quickly and safely. I aprenticed with some of the last marine smiths, and also worked(very briefly) in a shipyard building military frigates, and spent 95‰ of my life next to the salt water. Add to that my repeated attempts to conduct business as an entrepneur, only to be undermined by impossible (new) regulatory requirements, insurance requirements, labour (ha!) trouble, and lack of scaled banking services. I fill out the same tax form as the very largest companys in the world, and the government is generous enogh to give me a 9 digit space to fill in the amount of my return. It is 125 years since the steel ship building industry took off, there are no mysteries around how it must be done, but the nature of the greed machine, means that China and Korea can put a finnished ship into service, for much less per pound, than I can buy raw steel. The revolution we ARE going through, is the one where, fat, lazy, complacent,etc,etc,etc, so and so's, have very successfully captured all of the relevant power and control. U'r not gona talk a ship into the water. Lead, follow, or get out of the way and cheer!

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#38

Post by lesuorac »

pzo wrote: post #28
roenxi wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably. The original industrial revolutions were happening in nations that quickly became wealthy, and the US was doing pretty well with high wages vs. Asia for most of its industrial period. Higher wages in theory should be linked to higher productivity and output per worker in the US due to deep skillsets - otherwise where do the high wages come from? But something might have broken that link. The issue looks fro…

> Higher wages in theory should be linked in higher productivity and output per worker in the US due to deep skillsets I don't think this always have to be true, e.g. I'm polish and used work in uk and by crossing border to uk overnight I increased my salary 2-3x but that doesn't mean my productivity increased 2x. You want to google concept called "Dutch Disease", an economic phenomenon where a resource boom (like oi…

> You want to google concept called "Dutch Disease", an economic phenomenon where a resource boom (like oil) causes currency appreciation and decline in other sectors. Norway and the Netherlands faced this issue.

Isn't this just the downside of comparative advantage?

Like you have the classic example of island 1 can make 5 apples or 15 oranges and island 2 can make 15 apples or 5 oranges so island 1 makes 15 oranges and island 2 makes 15 apples. What happens to the apple industry of island 1? It gets destroyed as they only focus on making oranges.

The only way you avoid dutch disease (Natural Resource Curse nowendays) is to intentionally have an inefficient economy.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#39

Post by lesuorac »

rm445 wrote: post #26
Animats wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? The Jones Act was supposed to help American shipbuilding. It's a requirement that vessels which operate between US ports must be made in the US, crewed by the US, and flagged to the US. It didn't help much, but that was the plan. China's shipbuilding industry is so big that their aircraft carriers are being constructed by shipyards that make large cargo ships. Aerial photos show shipyards with drydocks full of c…

> It's a requirement that vessels which operate between US ports must be made in the US, crewed by the US, and flagged to the US. The everything-bagel approach. One of those requirements incentivises US shipbuilding, the other two incentivise other things. Seems like the net effect was less US shipbuilding and a smaller US-flagged fleet. Given those effects, it doesn't seem likely to have increased the number of US m…

I don't see much reason to believe that any ship built because of the Jones Act would've been built in the US in absence of the Jones Act. So, you really need to show that without the Jones Act that more ships would've been built in the US as opposed to showing that shipbuilding in the US has decreased.

It's like betting on Black for a roulette wheel versus betting on a specific number. You're still going to lose money but you lose the money slower by betting on black than a specific number. You need to show that betting on black loses money faster than a specific number to demonstrate that the Jones Act isn't furthering it's goal.

Re: The U.S. needs a shipbuilding revolution

#40

Post by nickdothutton »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #18
frodo8sam wrote: post #4

The nation doesn’t just need a shipbuilding revolution—it needs a broader industrial revitalization. Strengthening semiconductor manufacturing, modernizing military and civilian aviation, reinvigorating automotive innovation, and more are all critical. Tackling this alone would be overwhelming, but collaboration with trusted neighbors and reliable allies could make these ambitions achievable. Luckily we have a real b…

Honest question, is it at all possible for us to have an industrial revitalization given that we have the highest average wages in the world?

This comment of mine is light, so don't take it too seriously, but I'm reminded that the factory in the film Minority Report (2002) has no people in it. It is entirely automated.
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