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Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

cnbc.com

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Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#121

Post by dinkumthinkum »

ygjb wrote: post #102
ModernMech wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What more do you want? The pennies in our pockets? Pretty much yeah. US wants to tax you, subject you to their religious laws, and take your oil. What are you willing to do about it?

We are hoping the electorate in the US doesn't want to find out. US leadership has threatened Canada and other countries with using economic or military force for annexation. Canadians are hoping that saner heads will prevail, but it's not looking very good. We are very much aware that our military has been underserved in every way by Canadians, and that was part of the reason I chose not to continue my military care…

I think Canadians are more likely to find themselves in a situation in which all of their land is owned by Chinese and other foreign interests than an occupation by the U.S. that requires "insurgents", and it seems like they are happy to do it.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#122

Post by dinkumthinkum »

ModernMech wrote: post #105
ygjb wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are hoping the electorate in the US doesn't want to find out. US leadership has threatened Canada and other countries with using economic or military force for annexation. Canadians are hoping that saner heads will prevail, but it's not looking very good. We are very much aware that our military has been underserved in every way by Canadians, and that was part of the reason I chose not to continue my military care…

I fear that in hoping cooler heads will prevail, you've only set yourself up for failure. Trump and Musk will take advantage of your willingness to see them as better than what they are. That's how they win. Just remember they are doing Nazis salutes and setting up a concentration camp in Cuba. There are no more cooler heads.

Well, that's nonsense. No one is doing "Nazi salutes" nor setting up concentration camps. I mean if the ADL say it was not such a salute, methinks thou doth protest too much. As far as concentration camps, this is just leftist hyperbole. Visit Germany and Poland go see what real such things were like, this is more offensive to those victims of atrocities then the made up things you are referencing.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#123

Post by dinkumthinkum »

llm_nerd wrote: post #9
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #7

As I recently wrote on Cowen's blog, a lot of the electorate doesn't know how tariffs work. Say I manufacture a widget in [country]. At present, there is no manufacturer of that widget in the USA. We export to the USA, and now the US importer or distributor pays a ~25% tariff on the declared value to Fedgov. Then that US importer or distributor receives the widgets and sells them. Because its margin is down, it raise…

>The right way to go about things would be to shore up US manufacturing capabilities first The US has basically "full employment" (the economic measure when more employment is inflationary). In a vacuum the idea that you're "bringing home the jobs" makes sense, but it makes zero sense when you simply don't have the capacity to build more. If Americans thought inflation was unacceptable under Biden, they're in for a r…

I don't know why the left always presents this "full employment" thing when defending the Biden administration when they know full well how misleading that is and who are not counted in those numbers and the fact that it does not account for "under-employment", it's kind of intellectually dishonest. You can make these implications that inflation will get much worse under Trump but I doubt anyone on the left will come back with any admission or credit when it turns out to be false, surely they will just say "it was really Biden's economy that got better" or something to that effect.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#124

Post by dinkumthinkum »

a_cardboard_box wrote: post #109
dutchbookmaker wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really understand what the end game is with Canada here. For Mexico, it seems more like a prod for social policy on immigration and fentanyl. I listened to Trudeau yesterday and he isn't even able to get a hold of Trump right now, something that seems just insane. I am just not sure that is true though that this is a disaster for the US. How much can China afford to fight back here with the state of their eco…

The end goal is annexation. Canada has natural resources and Trump wants them. He's creating a crisis he can use as justification for invasion.

That is just insanely hyperbolic. I think this why the left lost. There is a 0% chance that Trump will invade Canada. I really think the left needs to just back away from fighting for their positions for a little while and get some perspective or they will continue losing.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#125

Post by dinkumthinkum »

llm_nerd wrote: post #70
Gunnerhead wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nukes for everyone yay! Hey Georgia is also under Russian threat, why don’t they also get a nuke or two? Then maybe their neighbor Armenia will think to themselves “why not me, I’m also under threat by an ex-Soviet country”? Then maybe Azerbaijan, then Turkey, then Saudi Arabia, everyone gets a nuke, I freaking love it! Then maybe other countries that got invaded by a bigger power like maybe Vietnam? Iraq? Why not!

I mean...why not? What moral right does the US have to nuclear weapons that others don't? US exceptionalism? Just looking at what is happening in the US right now -- an astonishingly corrupt banana republic increasingly led by an insane Christian nationalist movement that bizarrely doesn't seem to understand a thing about Christ's teachings -- I have more faith in North Korea's management of nuclear weapons than the…

Where is this ruling insane Christian nationalist movement? I don't see one. Are you just talking about people that think men are physically more dominant at sports and other physical activities, that is insane? I think that's what all of the world thought for thousands of years and probably 99% or more of people in the world think today. This is just more the Henny Penny stuff that I don't think helps the left much.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#126

Post by dinkumthinkum »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #97
Terr_ wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> twice about voting in favor Given that all this (and there's a whole lotta other extra this ) is coming straight out of the White House without any legislative votes, the future vote that is going to matter involves impeachment and removal from office. That should guide how other countries' decide to structure their retaliation.

Impeachment is unlikely because the GOP has to kowtow to Trump to survive him and his base. The path is to beat down red states and their electorates with tariffs. The direct economic harm is the only lever to pull, and therefore a coalition of nation states is needed to specifically target red states collectively.

[flagged]

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#127

Post by toomuchtodo »

dinkumthinkum wrote: post #126
toomuchtodo wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Impeachment is unlikely because the GOP has to kowtow to Trump to survive him and his base. The path is to beat down red states and their electorates with tariffs. The direct economic harm is the only lever to pull, and therefore a coalition of nation states is needed to specifically target red states collectively.

[flagged]

> What do you think would be the actual result of such actions in the real world?

In regards to the potential impact of retaliatory tariffs, I’d expect to see layoffs and business closures in red states, where voters are already economically disadvantaged; auto industry, agriculture (potash), etc. Increased grocery and basic food pricing. Farmer suicides are already 3.5x the general population, I’d expect to see the suicide and deaths of despair rate tick up from this economic impairment. These states already primarily rely on the federal government for financial assistance, financial assistance the new admin has said needs to be cut.

Canada specifically stated they are targeting red states. That’s not copium, it’s just smart policy. That’s where the voters are who voted for this. So, you impair jobs and economic opportunity in those states with tariffs and other cross border policy.

> The U.S. auto industry could shut down within a week, by some estimates, thanks to these tariffs. Even if it doesn't, there is no automaker that's set up to operate in a world of high-friction North American border duties.

…

> “Farm Bureau members support the goals of security and ensuring fair trade with our North American neighbors and China, but, unfortunately, we know from experience that farmers and rural communities will bear the brunt of retaliation. Harmful effects of retaliation to farmers ripple through the rest of the rural economy.

> “In addition, over 80% of the United States’ supply of a key fertilizer ingredient — potash — comes from Canada. Tariffs that increase fertilizer prices threaten to deliver another blow to the finances of farm families already grappling with inflation and high supply costs.

> “Farm and ranch families answer the call to feed America’s families and the world, and these tariffs and the promised retaliation will put further stress on their livelihoods. More than 20% of U.S. farm income comes from exports, which are dominated by these three markets. Just last year the U.S. exported over $30 billion in agricultural products to Mexico, $29 billion to Canada and $26 billion to China – our top three markets and nearly half of all exports by value combined.

Citations:

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/02/trump-tariffs-cars

https://www.csis.org/analysis/canadian-tariffs-will-undermin...

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-rural-communities-are-...

https://www.fb.org/news-release/afbf-new-tariffs-will-impact...

http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-t...

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/01/us/food-prices-tariffs-trump-...

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#128

Post by thunky »

rstuart4133 wrote: post #111
aborsy wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[country] may have no other place to sell to, at least immediately, and at the same transportation cost. Moreover, unlike US, [country] may not have diversified its trade. The US may be able to control inflation like last time, by buying some of these goods from elsewhere and through interest rates etc.

Maybe. And maybe it goes in reverse, like it did the the China vs Australia trade war. China was the big boy in that dispute, and it's Australia's biggest trading partner by country. It wasn't pleasant for either side, but in the end Australia diversified much faster the China. Interestingly, Australia didn't retaliate against China. We keep buying the Chinese stuff at the usual cheap prices, and found other markets…

> by the end of Trump's term, if it said term doesn't continue forever

Comments like this, sarcastic as it may be, help to normalize the idea.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#129

Post by ty6853 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #108
ygjb wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are hoping the electorate in the US doesn't want to find out. US leadership has threatened Canada and other countries with using economic or military force for annexation. Canadians are hoping that saner heads will prevail, but it's not looking very good. We are very much aware that our military has been underserved in every way by Canadians, and that was part of the reason I chose not to continue my military care…

US electorate must find out. You can only negotiate with rational people. Retaliatory tariffs are mandatory, at a minimum.

Retaliatory tariff why? US tariff are self inflicted harm. If you see your neighbor slashing their wrists, slashing your own doesn't improve the situation. Canadian taxpayers will be the ones eating that cost.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#130

Post by biggestfilm »

3vidence wrote: post #20

Why is the American government so hell bent on destroying its own economy? The biggest things they import for Canada aren't even manufactured goods but raw materials. The only way to avoid the T tarrif at that point is to import from a different country but there are tarrifs there as well. What is even the end game here? Make China the new biggest game in town?

My guess is that Trump does not want the Chinese manufacturers and other multinationals to just jump ship from Mexico where they currently are, to Canada. He wants the manufacturing to be in US.

Also, I think he is serious about the fentanyl trades via Canada

US Customs and Border Patrol recognizes three regions where fentanyl crosses into the country. These regions are the northern border dividing the US and Canada, the southwest border dividing the US and Mexico, and coastal and interior ports of entry.

https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-fentanyl-is-seized-at-...

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