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Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

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Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#71

Post by deeg »

dismalaf wrote: post #60
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've got one word for you: Potash. Hugely important for agriculture, barely produced in the US at all, mostly imported from Canada. If Canada retaliates by barring or limiting potash exports, it would be so harmful to the American agriculture sector that Trump would go ballistic. > They can and will move to the US because of these tariffs. That's a lot easier said than done, and as US policies might change at any tim…

Potash is important yes. Canada also imports a majority of our fruit and vegetables from the US. Over 90% of our leafy greens come from the US. We already have a massive cost of living crisis. And I'm not sure if American commentators have been paying attention to our economy or not but Canada's GDP per capita has gone down for 6 straight quarters. And here's the analysis from the Bank of Canada: https://www.bankofca…

I don't think anyone is saying it won't hurt Canada; trade wars hurt both sides. The discussion is whether Canada can make it hurt Trumps supporters enough to pressure him to remove the tariffs.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#72

Post by dashundchen »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #6

What's the plan here ? Tariff war with all main trading partners ? According to Trump EU tariffs are coming in soon. US can win any tariff war against a single country. They maybe could win against China or EU or Canada / Mexico alone. But all of them at once ? This is going to be a disaster for the US. Because of current sky-high stock market valuations, US thinks it's the only game in town. We will soon see if it's…

They've been telling us the plan.

Fascist Elon Musk was telling us before the election they were going to crash the economy and wreck the government. Project 2025 was freely available.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kaboom-elon-musk-predicts-...

They want to snap up assets, strip mine and privatize government services once theyre broken, and install the billionare oligarchcy as the permanent ring class.

Theyre speed running Russia's 1990s economic crash into oligarchy.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#73

Post by dismalaf »

deeg wrote: post #71
dismalaf wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Potash is important yes. Canada also imports a majority of our fruit and vegetables from the US. Over 90% of our leafy greens come from the US. We already have a massive cost of living crisis. And I'm not sure if American commentators have been paying attention to our economy or not but Canada's GDP per capita has gone down for 6 straight quarters. And here's the analysis from the Bank of Canada: https://www.bankofca…

I don't think anyone is saying it won't hurt Canada; trade wars hurt both sides. The discussion is whether Canada can make it hurt Trumps supporters enough to pressure him to remove the tariffs.

My perspective is as a Canadian. The US GDP per capita is 7% above pre-Covid numbers, Canada's is 2% below. Or you can say our GDP per capita has diverged by 9% since COVID. Canada's cost of living is actually untenable right now. Canada can't hold the line long enough to do anything to the US.

We'll do it for political reasons until the election this year but it's going to decimate our economy even further.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#74

Post by dutchbookmaker »

aborsy wrote: post #51
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #7

As I recently wrote on Cowen's blog, a lot of the electorate doesn't know how tariffs work. Say I manufacture a widget in [country]. At present, there is no manufacturer of that widget in the USA. We export to the USA, and now the US importer or distributor pays a ~25% tariff on the declared value to Fedgov. Then that US importer or distributor receives the widgets and sells them. Because its margin is down, it raise…

[country] may have no other place to sell to, at least immediately, and at the same transportation cost. Moreover, unlike US, [country] may not have diversified its trade. The US may be able to control inflation like last time, by buying some of these goods from elsewhere and through interest rates etc.

It is also through the exchange rates.

USD to CAD has front ran a lot of this already. 1.45 is crazy.

The idea Canada can so easily re-route trade is absurd. Especially when the trade is going to be settled in USD.

I have been trying to understand the point of all this and come up empty this morning. I would have to assume it is for enormous leverage in the trade deal that ultimately ends all this. The leverage this gives the US in a trade deal, especially with Canada is pretty incredible.

25% is just so insane that it probably does cause Mexico and Canada to concede to whatever Trump wants in a trade deal and in short order. I think this is why Trump won't even take a call from Trudeau right now. It is a leverage tactic and then when they do talk what leverage does Trudeau have? Basically zero.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#75

Post by Marsymars »

dismalaf wrote: post #64
Marsymars wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every American service -- Netflix, Disney, Prime, Apple services -- need to have enormous tariffs applied. No tariffs required, just suspend their copyright protection and spin up some free government-run streaming video servers.

Unfortunately we already have a few Canadian run streaming services and they're utter shit... As in constant buffering, won't cast to TVs properly, that sort of thing.

Yeah, but e.g. if the gov suspended Netflix copyright protection and had Crave load up Netflix's entire catalog... I don't know how many people would opt to still pay for Netflix just to avoid Crave's UI/UX.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#76

Post by psb217 »

deeg wrote: post #71
dismalaf wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Potash is important yes. Canada also imports a majority of our fruit and vegetables from the US. Over 90% of our leafy greens come from the US. We already have a massive cost of living crisis. And I'm not sure if American commentators have been paying attention to our economy or not but Canada's GDP per capita has gone down for 6 straight quarters. And here's the analysis from the Bank of Canada: https://www.bankofca…

I don't think anyone is saying it won't hurt Canada; trade wars hurt both sides. The discussion is whether Canada can make it hurt Trumps supporters enough to pressure him to remove the tariffs.

You also have to account for how much Trump cares about his supporters vs how much any Canadian politician with sufficient power to act cares about their supporters. Trump is already elected, so whatever self-interested concern he had for his supporters is gone. I doubt Canadian politicians, with an election looming, are as willing to throw their supporters under the bus.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#77

Post by laverya »

Terr_ wrote: post #2

1. Don't worry, even if Canada retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from Mexico, and Canada will be left out in the cold, jealous of our success. 2. Don't worry, even if Mexico retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from China, leaving Mexico and Canada out in the cold, jealous of our success. 3. Don't worry, even if China retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from the EU, leaving…

97. Well, I guess the US is one of the countries best able to implement Autarky today, so let's give it a try!

Trade makes things more efficient. Trade gives access to resources not available otherwise. Trade allows greater economies of scale, and production efficiencies via comparative advantage.

Trade is also not fundamentally necessary for the US in the way it is for essentially every other country on the planet, because the US is large enough, diverse enough, and resource rich enough to (with a fair bit of pain!) survive on our own.

I do not think it will come to that, but it is true.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#78

Post by stevenwoo »

3vidence wrote: post #57
stevenwoo wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/us/politics/elon-musk-tru... They state they think the temporary pain to consumers and the loss of good will with Canada and Mexico is worth some other goal that will be achieved like they think this will cause American manufacturers to decide to expand in America, also they always talk about tax cuts and tariffs are a way to increase federal revenue without a change in the tax code…

How do you spin up factories for crude oil and potash? America is just an unserious country right now.

I didn't say I agreed with them, merely summarized what they said in 2024 campaign and speculated on other motivations. I think they are entirely serious in their other motivations, they are flooding the zone with actions listed in Project 2025, just doing as many executive actions as possible to keep opponents busy so some will stick.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#79

Post by laverya »

dutchbookmaker wrote: post #65
TheAlchemist wrote: post #6

What's the plan here ? Tariff war with all main trading partners ? According to Trump EU tariffs are coming in soon. US can win any tariff war against a single country. They maybe could win against China or EU or Canada / Mexico alone. But all of them at once ? This is going to be a disaster for the US. Because of current sky-high stock market valuations, US thinks it's the only game in town. We will soon see if it's…

I don't really understand what the end game is with Canada here. For Mexico, it seems more like a prod for social policy on immigration and fentanyl. I listened to Trudeau yesterday and he isn't even able to get a hold of Trump right now, something that seems just insane. I am just not sure that is true though that this is a disaster for the US. How much can China afford to fight back here with the state of their eco…

What I've been seeing is people saying that Canada is the source for most fentanyl coming into the US, not Mexico.

(This is also the US's stated reason for tariffs on Canada)

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#80

Post by nightowl_games »

dutchbookmaker wrote: post #74
aborsy wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[country] may have no other place to sell to, at least immediately, and at the same transportation cost. Moreover, unlike US, [country] may not have diversified its trade. The US may be able to control inflation like last time, by buying some of these goods from elsewhere and through interest rates etc.

It is also through the exchange rates. USD to CAD has front ran a lot of this already. 1.45 is crazy. The idea Canada can so easily re-route trade is absurd. Especially when the trade is going to be settled in USD. I have been trying to understand the point of all this and come up empty this morning. I would have to assume it is for enormous leverage in the trade deal that ultimately ends all this. The leverage this…

Yes, the USA has massive leverage over Canada on basically every front. We are a small child standing next to a massive person with a gun. But what is the point of destroying us?

Our economy is already down. All of our tech elite move to Silicon Valley. Our energy infrastructure cant get off the ground. The USA dictates so much of what Canada is able to do.

What is the point of squeezing us more? We have so little we can offer you.

We've already given you the lives of our soldiers as we follow you into pointless wars. What more do you want? The pennies in our pockets?

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