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Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

cnbc.com

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Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#41

Post by Marsymars »

ConspiracyFact wrote: post #27
smnrchrds wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have never seen any article saying tariffs will "only" hurt American consumers. They hurt both sides and every article I have seen acknowledges this. However, American news sites tend to focus on the effects in the US, while Canadian news sites focus on the effects in Canada.

I may have worded that wrong. Articles say that they will hurt American consumers and don’t address the actual purpose of the tariffs, which is to put political pressure on their targets. If the tariffs didn’t have at least some chance of succeeding at this, the targets wouldn’t be talking about retaliation.

Political pressure to what end? Trump said “jump” on border measures and Canada jumped even before the tariffs.

The retaliation is posturing for the other party and for the electorate. If you’re driving in a car and your passenger pulls the pin on a grenade, you can “retaliate” by pulling the pin on your own grenade.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#42

Post by ConspiracyFact »

Marsymars wrote: post #41
ConspiracyFact wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I may have worded that wrong. Articles say that they will hurt American consumers and don’t address the actual purpose of the tariffs, which is to put political pressure on their targets. If the tariffs didn’t have at least some chance of succeeding at this, the targets wouldn’t be talking about retaliation.

Political pressure to what end? Trump said “jump” on border measures and Canada jumped even before the tariffs. The retaliation is posturing for the other party and for the electorate. If you’re driving in a car and your passenger pulls the pin on a grenade, you can “retaliate” by pulling the pin on your own grenade.

But if the tariffs don’t actually cost the target anything, why retaliate?

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#43

Post by nullhole »

ConspiracyFact wrote: post #39
nullhole wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Targets talk about retaliation if they think the tariffs have some chance of succeeding, true. Targets also talk about retaliation if they think retaliation has a chance of succeeding.

What?

There are two possible reactions to tariffs that you think will put political pressure on you.

One is to retaliate. You only do this if you think you might win the trade war. Canada retaliated, and Canada thinks it might win the trade war.

The other is to roll over. You only do this if you don't think you'll win the trade war. That's what Columbia did.

Retaliation is a sign that the attack was strong, yes, but it's also a sign that the defence is strong.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#44

Post by Marsymars »

ConspiracyFact wrote: post #42
Marsymars wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Political pressure to what end? Trump said “jump” on border measures and Canada jumped even before the tariffs. The retaliation is posturing for the other party and for the electorate. If you’re driving in a car and your passenger pulls the pin on a grenade, you can “retaliate” by pulling the pin on your own grenade.

But if the tariffs don’t actually cost the target anything, why retaliate?

> But if the tariffs don’t actually cost the target anything

I don’t think anybody has suggested this.

Or, see my analogy; pulling a grenade pin in a moving car costs everybody.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#45

Post by Gunnerhead »

Grosvenor wrote: post #8
llm_nerd wrote: post #3

Canada was specifically warned not to retaliate in any manner, which is basically an acknowledgement that Canada has some powerful levers. This is farcical and of course Canada is going to retaliate. The $450B of American goods sold to Canada is going to collapse. The F35 purchase will be cancelled. Various other projects with the US will be abandoned. Oil will be export tariffed. Every American service -- Netflix, D…

They could start a joint nuclear program with Ukraine. Canada has the Canadian shield which is rich in Uranium. Both Canada and Ukraine get nukes (Ukraine has a bridge that needs blowing up), Ukraine gets safety, Canada gets huge reputation gains in trade with Ukraine. NB: Ukraine will be the fastest growing western economy post war for at least a decade or two.

Nukes for everyone yay! Hey Georgia is also under Russian threat, why don’t they also get a nuke or two? Then maybe their neighbor Armenia will think to themselves “why not me, I’m also under threat by an ex-Soviet country”? Then maybe Azerbaijan, then Turkey, then Saudi Arabia, everyone gets a nuke, I freaking love it! Then maybe other countries that got invaded by a bigger power like maybe Vietnam? Iraq? Why not!

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#46

Post by [deleted] »

Gunnerhead wrote: post #45
Grosvenor wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could start a joint nuclear program with Ukraine. Canada has the Canadian shield which is rich in Uranium. Both Canada and Ukraine get nukes (Ukraine has a bridge that needs blowing up), Ukraine gets safety, Canada gets huge reputation gains in trade with Ukraine. NB: Ukraine will be the fastest growing western economy post war for at least a decade or two.

Nukes for everyone yay! Hey Georgia is also under Russian threat, why don’t they also get a nuke or two? Then maybe their neighbor Armenia will think to themselves “why not me, I’m also under threat by an ex-Soviet country”? Then maybe Azerbaijan, then Turkey, then Saudi Arabia, everyone gets a nuke, I freaking love it! Then maybe other countries that got invaded by a bigger power like maybe Vietnam? Iraq? Why not!

[deleted]

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#47

Post by tossandthrow »

pwarner wrote: post #19
llm_nerd wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The right way to go about things would be to shore up US manufacturing capabilities first The US has basically "full employment" (the economic measure when more employment is inflationary). In a vacuum the idea that you're "bringing home the jobs" makes sense, but it makes zero sense when you simply don't have the capacity to build more. If Americans thought inflation was unacceptable under Biden, they're in for a r…

Americans have no idea how good they have it.

The issue is the rampant inequality in the US. The below median American does not have it that well, even if they work their assets off.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#48

Post by tossandthrow »

polishdude20 wrote: post #5
llm_nerd wrote: post #3

Canada was specifically warned not to retaliate in any manner, which is basically an acknowledgement that Canada has some powerful levers. This is farcical and of course Canada is going to retaliate. The $450B of American goods sold to Canada is going to collapse. The F35 purchase will be cancelled. Various other projects with the US will be abandoned. Oil will be export tariffed. Every American service -- Netflix, D…

I'm not sure if software services are part of this tarrif? Can anyone confirm?

Traditionally it is not, but it can be, it is just doing it.

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#49

Post by ygjb »

_DeadFred_ wrote: post #30
toomuchtodo wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada will respond by placing 25% counter-tariffs on C$155 billion ($107 billion) worth of American-made products. That will include tariffs on C$30 billion worth as of Tuesday, with the rest coming later in February, to allow Canadian companies to adjust their supply chains and find alternatives. > American beer, wine, food and appliances will be among the many items subject to…

Canada is specifically going after goods from red states. Imagine if every nation Trump goes after targeted the same states that Canada has? They can't devastate the entire USA but they can absolutely devastate a few US states if they play smart and work together. Especially poorer red states.

It was a pretty effective strategy during the last Trump administration

Re: Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

#50

Post by A_D_E_P_T »

dismalaf wrote: post #23
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #7

As I recently wrote on Cowen's blog, a lot of the electorate doesn't know how tariffs work. Say I manufacture a widget in [country]. At present, there is no manufacturer of that widget in the USA. We export to the USA, and now the US importer or distributor pays a ~25% tariff on the declared value to Fedgov. Then that US importer or distributor receives the widgets and sells them. Because its margin is down, it raise…

There's basically nothing that's manufactured only in Canada... The vast majority of our exports are raw materials, and of our manufactured goods most are foreign multinationals that set up shop to take advantage of our cheap(er) labour versus the US... They can and will move to the US because of these tariffs. This will decimate our economy and it really feels like Trudeau simply wants someone to blame our shit econ…

I've got one word for you: Potash.

Hugely important for agriculture, barely produced in the US at all, mostly imported from Canada.

If Canada retaliates by barring or limiting potash exports, it would be so harmful to the American agriculture sector that Trump would go ballistic.

> They can and will move to the US because of these tariffs.

That's a lot easier said than done, and as US policies might change at any time -- it's a coin-flip what'll be the case in four years -- they'll probably just decide to wait it out and let US consumers eat the tax.

Seriously, you might think it's easy to relocate, e.g., a car manufacturing plant, but it sure ain't...

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