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String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

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Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#161
post #144

Rationalism? The term has been used a lot of times since Pythagoras [0], but the combination of Bay Area, Oxford, existential risks, AI safety makes it sound like this particular movement could have formed in the same mold as Effective Altruism and Long-Termism (ie, the "it's objectively better for humanity if you give us money to buy a castle in France than whatever you'd do with it" crowd that SBF sprung from). Can…

You're correct. Those communities heavily overlap.

Take, for example, 80,000 Hours, among the more prominent EA organizations. Their top donors (https://80000hours.org/about/donors/) include:

- SBF and Alameda Research (you probably knew this),

- the Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative, founded (https://www.existence.org/team) by the same guy who founded CFAR (the Center for Applied Rationality, a major rationalist organization)

- the "EA infrastructure fund", whose own team page (https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/team) contains the "project lead for LessWrong.com, where he tries to build infrastructure for making intellectual progress on global catastrophic risks"

- the "long-term future fund", largely AI x-risk focused

and so on.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#162

[Former member of that world, roommates with one of Ziz's friends for a while, so I feel reasonably qualified to speak on this.] The problem with rationalists/EA as a group has never been the rationality, but the people practicing it and the cultural norms they endorse as a community. As relevant here: 1) While following logical threads to their conclusions is a useful exercise, each logical step often involves some…

Brilliant summary, thanks.

I'm interested in #4, is there anywhere you know of to read more about that? I don't think I've seen that described except obliquely in eg sayings about the relationship between genius and madness.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#163
post #142

Ziz (the cult leader) had a blog at sinceriously.fyi, where she elaborated on her philosophy. The blog has since devolved into a string of death threads and subsequently been deleted, but anyone who's interested in the backstory can still find some posts on archive.ph (e.g. [1]) and more on web.archive.org. From Ziz and other cult members' writings, it's obvious that the cult has been in conflict with the rationalist…

"Trans vegan 'Siths' who kill people with katanas" is not a sentence I thought I'd ever read, let alone type, yet here we are, in the most ludicrous timeline.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#164
post #144

Rationalism? The term has been used a lot of times since Pythagoras [0], but the combination of Bay Area, Oxford, existential risks, AI safety makes it sound like this particular movement could have formed in the same mold as Effective Altruism and Long-Termism (ie, the "it's objectively better for humanity if you give us money to buy a castle in France than whatever you'd do with it" crowd that SBF sprung from). Can…

Just like HN grew around the writing of Paul Graham, the "rationalist community" grew around the writings of Eliezer Yudkowsky. Similar to how Paul Graham no longer participates on HN, Eliezer rarely participates on http://lesswrong.com anymore, and the benevolent dictator for life of lesswrong.com is someone other than Eliezer.

Eliezer's career has always been centered around AI. At first Eliezer was wholly optimistic about AI progress. In fact, in the 1990s, I would say that Eliezer was the loudest voice advocating for the development of AI technology that would greatly exceed human cognitive capabilities. "Intentionally causing a technological singularity," was the way he phrased it in the 1990s IIRC. (Later "singularity" would be replaced by "intelligence explosion".)

From 2001 to 2004 he started to believe that AI has a strong tendency to become very dangerous once it starts exceeding the human level of cognitive capabilities. Still, he hoped that before AI starts exceeding human capabilities, he and his organization could develop a methodology to keep it safe. As part of that effort, he coined the term "alignment". The meaning of the term has broadened drastically: when Eliezer coined it, he meant the creation of an AI that stays aligned with human values and human preferences even as its capabilities greatly exceed human capabilities. In contrast, these days, when you see the phrase "aligned AI", it is usually being applied to an AI system that is not a threat to people only because it's not cognitively capable enough to dis-empower human civilization.

By the end of 2015, Eliezer had lost most of the hope he initially had for the alignment project in part because of conversations he had with Elon Musk and Sam Altman at an AGI conference in Puerto Rico followed by Elon and Sam's actions later that year, which actions included the founding of OpenAI. Eliezer still considers the alignment problem solvable in principle if a sufficiently-smart and sufficiently-careful team attacks it, but considers it extremely unlikely any team will manage a solution before the AI labs cause human extinction.

In April 2022 he went public with his despair and announced that his organization (MIRI) will cease technical work on the alignment project and will focus on lobbying the governments of the world to ban AI (or at least the deep-learning paradigm, which he considers too hard to align) before it is too late.

The rationalist movement began in November 2006 when Eliezer began posting daily about human rationality on overcomingbias.com. (The community moved to lesswrong.com in 2009, at which time overcomingbias.com became the personal blog of Robin Hanson.) The rationalist movement was always seen by Eliezer as secondary to the AI-alignment enterprise. Specifically, Eliezer hoped that by explaining to people how to become more rational, he could increase the number of people who are capable of realizing that AI research was a potent threat to human survival.

To help advance this secondary project, the Center for Applied Rationality (CFAR) was founded as a non-profit in 2012. Eliezer is neither an employee nor a member of the board of this CFAR. He is employed by and on the board of the non-profit Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) which was founded in 2000 as the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence.

I stress that believing that AI research is dangerous has never been a requirement for posting on lesswrong.com or for participating in workshops run by CFAR.

Effective altruism (EA) has separate roots, but the two communities have become close over the years, and EA organizations have donated millions to MIRI.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#166

[Former member of that world, roommates with one of Ziz's friends for a while, so I feel reasonably qualified to speak on this.] The problem with rationalists/EA as a group has never been the rationality, but the people practicing it and the cultural norms they endorse as a community. As relevant here: 1) While following logical threads to their conclusions is a useful exercise, each logical step often involves some…

> Rationalists, by tending to overly formalist approaches,

But they don't apply formal or "formalist" approaches, they invoke the names of formal methods but then extract from them just a "vibe". Few to none in the community know squat about actually computing a posterior probability, but they'll all happily chant "shut up and multiply" as a justification for whatever nonsense they instinctively wanted to do.

> Precision errors in utility calculations that are numerically-unstable

Indeed, as well as just ignoring that uncertainties about the state of the world or the model of interaction utterly dominate any "calculation" that you could hope to do. The world at large is does not spend all its time in lesswrongian ritual multiplication or whatever... but this is not because they're educated stupid. It's because in the face of substantial uncertainty about the world (and your own calculation processes) reasoning things out can only take you so far. A useful tool in some domains, but not a generalized philosophy for life ... The cognitive biases they obsess about and go out of their way to eschew are mostly highly evolved harm mitigation heuristics for reasoning against uncertainty.

> that is particularly susceptible to internally-consistent madness

It's typical for cults to cultivate vulnerable mind states for cult leaders to exploit for their own profit, power, sexual fulfillment, etc.

A well regulated cult keeps its members mental illness within a bound that maximized the benefit for the cult leaders in a sustainable way (e.g. not going off and murdering people, even when doing so is the logical conclusion of the cult philosophy). But sometimes people are won over by a cult's distorted thinking but aren't useful for bringing the cult leaders their desired profit, power, or sex.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#167
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.6% Marxist Did you confuse Liberal with Leftist? Liberals are anti-left Some portion are Libertarian but there's no distinction between so-called "ancap" and libcom so that one is murky or more often coded for the former (the Libertarian party in the US is anti-left)

Just in USA Liberals are considered leftist

> Just in USA Liberals are considered leftist

Well, for a period of time liberals were the left. In the last decade or so the illiberal left has come up in opposition to the illiberal right, the latter matching the former’s hypocrisy in false promises of equality (while driving division) with false promises of freedom (while expanding the rulebook).

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#168
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think most rationalists would consider themselves leftist Yes they do. https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf5FqX6XBJlfOShMd3U...

Does it really matter? Nazis called themselves socialists.

North Korea is a democratic people’s republic.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#169

This story happened in my backyard. The shootout was about 40 minutes from me but Youngblut and Felix Bauckholt were reported by a hotel clerk dressed in tactical gear and sporting firearms in a hotel a few blocks from me. Weird to see a community I followed show up so close to home and negatively like this. I always just read LW and appreciated some of the fundamentals that this group seems to have ignored. Stuff li…

> Weird to see a community I followed show up so close to home and negatively like this.

I had some coworkers who were really into LessWrong and rationality. I thought it was fun to read some of the selected writings they would share, but I always felt that online rationalist communities collected a lot of people with reactionary, fascist, misogynistic, and far-right tendencies. There’s a heavily sanitized version of rationality and EA that gets presented online with only the highlights, but there’s a lot more out there in the fringes that is really weird.

For example, many know about Roko’s Basilisk as a thought exercise and much has been written about it, but fewer know that Roko has been writing misogynistic rants on Twitter and claiming things like having women in the workforce is “very negative” for GDP.

The Slate Star Codex subreddit was a home for rationalists on Reddit, but they had so many problems with culture war topics that they banned discussion of them. The users forked off and created “The Motte” which is a bit of a cesspool dressed up with rationalist prose. Even the SlateStarCodex subreddit has become so toxic that I had to unsubscribe. Many of the posts and comments on women or dating were becoming indistinguishable from incel communities other than the rationalist prose style.

Even the real-world rationalist and EA communities aren’t immune, with several high profile sexual misconduct scandals making the news in recent years.

It’s a weird space. It felt like a fun internet philosophy community when my coworkers introduced it years ago, but the longer I’ve observed it the more I’ve realized it attracts and accepts a lot of people whose goals aren’t aligned with objectively “make the world better” as long as they can write their prose in the rationalist style. It’s been strange to observe.

Of course, at every turn people will argue that the bad actors are not true rationalists, but I’ve seen enough from these communities to know that they don’t really discriminate much until issues boil over into the news.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#170
post #49

Most of the news coverage I've seen of this story is omitting what some might consider a relevant detail: almost all the members of this group are trans. This is a divisive topic, but failing to mention this makes me worry a story is pushing a particular agenda rather than trying to tell the facts. Here's what the story looks like if the trans activism is considered central to the story: https://thepostmillennial.com…

Ngo certainly notes the trans aspect with some charged words. Calls them “leftist trans militants with alleged ties to a trans terror cell.”
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