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Deferred resignation email to federal employees

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Re: Deferred resignation email to federal employees

#161

Post by nickpp »

orwin wrote: post #154
nickpp wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think those sellers on the secondary markets do with the money they get? At the end of the investing chain it’s always jobs, products and services - or bank deposits. Any money not physically hidden in a cash vault or under a mattress takes part in the economy.

Re-invest in crypto or other, already-existing stocks. The secondary market is so huge nowadays, and uncorrelated from dividends, mainly because growth (followed by regular buybacks), not dividends, is now the main way to pay investors, but not only. In fact, what Jacques Richard call "futuristic accounting" (his research is available in english [0]) is basically helping big companies to decorrelate real profits from…

> Re-invest in crypto or other, already-existing stocks.

Again, for a stock to be on the market, somebody has to do the economic activity to create & bring it there. Buying from that "someone" pumps the money back in the economy. Buying from another, previous, stocks owner just moves the situation to him.

Kind of like when you pay your retailer for the product on the shelf: there are certain delays but eventually the money has to reach the product builder, with each participant in the production & logistics chain keeping his share on the way.

This is simple, trivial logic and no amount of biased, ideological "research" can change it.

Re: Deferred resignation email to federal employees

#162

Post by euroderf »

CalRobert wrote: post #26
andy_ppp wrote: post #23

Anyone else think it’s likely America ends up without being a meaningful democracy by the end of this? I am skeptical the stated goal is efficiency it’s loyalty to MAGA. Imagine how extreme they will get if you can never vote them out.

I very much agree, and it's part of why I live abroad. I don't understand why the people behind January 6 would then go on to allow free and fair elections and politely hand back power when they lose.

I moved abroad decades ago and have now spent more than half my life out of the US, but it's only nowadays that I thank my lucky stars.

Re: Deferred resignation email to federal employees

#163

Post by orwin »

nickpp wrote: post #161
orwin wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re-invest in crypto or other, already-existing stocks. The secondary market is so huge nowadays, and uncorrelated from dividends, mainly because growth (followed by regular buybacks), not dividends, is now the main way to pay investors, but not only. In fact, what Jacques Richard call "futuristic accounting" (his research is available in english [0]) is basically helping big companies to decorrelate real profits from…

> Re-invest in crypto or other, already-existing stocks. Again, for a stock to be on the market, somebody has to do the economic activity to create & bring it there. Buying from that "someone" pumps the money back in the economy. Buying from another, previous, stocks owner just moves the situation to him. Kind of like when you pay your retailer for the product on the shelf: there are certain delays but eventually the…

Except when you're in a bubble.

You're right, eventually an investor exit his position to buy newly issued shares or obligations, which in theory should be used to increase production.

What I'm saying is twofold: most of the money is invested in purely financial products, not production. Two examples: I'm not against futures, I think it's a good idea to stabilise farmers income. But when you have twice as much money in futures, twice as much investments in agritech, and the same agricultural output, can I say that money had no impact in production? Also,just look at the state of mining companies, or rather, where new money is invested. A lot is in new prospecting companies with 'AI' or 'blockchain' in their website. In the same time, new mines open less frequently, despite a huge increase in investment. Am I allowed to say that investment in this sector is decorrelated from actual production?

That's my first point. My second was that the new accounting 'technique' (futuristic accounting) used by some companies (PE, but probably others) is used to issue dividends uncorrelated from profit (thus uncorrelated from production).

Also I don't want to enter a boxing match, just confronting point of views, and I don't care that you didn't read about the specific of futuristic accounting, it's about accounting, I understand. But don't call ideological something you did not read next time.

Re: Deferred resignation email to federal employees

#164

Post by nickpp »

orwin wrote: post #163
nickpp wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Re-invest in crypto or other, already-existing stocks. Again, for a stock to be on the market, somebody has to do the economic activity to create & bring it there. Buying from that "someone" pumps the money back in the economy. Buying from another, previous, stocks owner just moves the situation to him. Kind of like when you pay your retailer for the product on the shelf: there are certain delays but eventually the…

Except when you're in a bubble. You're right, eventually an investor exit his position to buy newly issued shares or obligations, which in theory should be used to increase production. What I'm saying is twofold: most of the money is invested in purely financial products, not production. Two examples: I'm not against futures, I think it's a good idea to stabilise farmers income. But when you have twice as much money…

The only point I am addressing here is the claim that invested money is not injected back in the economy.

Where exactly do you think invested money goes, if not in economy? Please be specific. Give concrete examples.

No boxing match, just trying to understand your point. I know nothing about mining sector and I have no clue what the connection with your “futuristic accounting” is.

Re: Deferred resignation email to federal employees

#165

Post by CalRobert »

euroderf wrote: post #162
CalRobert wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I very much agree, and it's part of why I live abroad. I don't understand why the people behind January 6 would then go on to allow free and fair elections and politely hand back power when they lose.

I moved abroad decades ago and have now spent more than half my life out of the US, but it's only nowadays that I thank my lucky stars.

For a long time I eyed the pay and interesting companies in norcal thinking “did I make a mistake?” But now I clutch my EU passport thankfully

Re: Deferred resignation email to federal employees

#166

Post by araes »

ndiddy wrote: post #9

Here's the OPM guidance memo to department heads about this program: https://chcoc.gov/sites/default/files/OPM%20Guidance%20Memo%... Key quote: "Employees who accept deferred resignation should promptly have their duties re-assigned or eliminated and be placed on paid administrative leave until the end of the deferred resignation period (generally, September 30, 2025, unless the employee has elected another earlier r…

Only a couple days and it's already File Not Found. Here's a different link that appears to still work:

https://chcoc.gov/sites/default/files/OPM%20Guidance%20Memo%...

Here's the FAQ that got put up on OPM.

https://www.opm.gov/fork/faq/

Note: This is pretty much every single one of the federal employees (2.2 million) other than: "military personnel of the armed forces, employees of the U.S. Postal Service, those in positions related to immigration enforcement and national security, and those in other positions specifically excluded by your employing agency."

The quotes are predictably demeaning: Am I allowed to get a second job?

"Absolutely! We encourage you to find a job in the private sector as soon as you would like to do so. The way to greater American prosperity is encouraging people to move from lower productivity jobs in the public sector to higher productivity jobs in the private sector."

Poster (YouDoHaveValue) on Reddit had a pretty great take:

Typical indicators of a scam:

  - Sounds too good to be true
  - Urgent requests or threats, FOMO
  - Spelling / grammar errors
  - Payments via unconventional / insecure means
  - Links or attachments prompting you to provide personal information
There have already been legal fights about the mass mailings from new OPM addresses as reported by (Wired) https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-lackeys-office-personn...:

"Last week, federal employees across the government received emails encouraging them to turn in colleagues who they believed to be working on diversity, equity, inclusion, and access initiatives (DEIA) to the OPM via the email address DEIAtruth@opm.gov"

Also, this story seems to have sank remarkably quickly...

Re: Deferred resignation email to federal employees

#167

Post by laidoffamazon »

spencerflem wrote: post #40
laidoffamazon wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the chance is about 10%. That's too high of a chance, IMHO.

Genuinely, who are you expecting to stand up against it? The Democrats in Congress? Massive public demonstration? It feels all but inevitable to me

Congress and anybody in his administration that decides to grow a spine without being booted before they do.

Barring that, the American people in 2 years, assuming a politicized FBI run by Kash Patel doesn't intervene in particular elections.

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