11–20 of 165 posts
The only thing relevant, is the large sale that Nancy Pelosi did before the crash. Another incredible coincidence again of course, by one of he most successful hedge managers in history...
https://www.newsweek.com/nancy-pelosi-sells-nvidia-stock-wee...
My assumptions is that we in the late 1940s through the 1950s had achieved a reasonable standard of living, but perhaps not available to all. Even if we assume that everyone in a country has access to the same, high, late 1950s standard of living, but applied modern technology, like improved insulation, district heating, EVs, energy efficient light bulbs and appliances, then how much would that lower (or raise) our energy usage? More of the energy would surely be moved to electricity, from coal, gas and oil delivered directly to our home, but is it enough chance the environmental impact?
I made a comment yesterday that the whole NVDA thing seemed eerily similar to the AMZN thing in the first dot com crash. [0]. If the market can get sufficiently irrational, and we start to see that same like 80-90% markdown that we got with AMZN in the first crash, I mean, who knows? That's a golden opportunity. Not many generations get opportunities like that twice . I guess we'll see what happens with the stock pri…
Having read the paper from deepseek I seriously don't get how anyone can think "Oh now is the time to sell nvidia". Both at the tactical level and strategic level that paper means we will see _more_ nvidia gpus fly off the shelves. If anything it's showing why the h800 is a decent card and everyone in China should buy one (dozen thousands).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Having read the paper from deepseek I seriously don't get how anyone can think "Oh now is the time to sell nvidia". Both at the tactical level and strategic level that paper means we will see _more_ nvidia gpus fly off the shelves. If anything it's showing why the h800 is a decent card and everyone in China should buy one (dozen thousands).
I had analyzed the paper as well, and gave some quick thoughts on a few of the low level things that stood out and would affect NVDA here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42856652 I have to agree. I'm not sure the architectural and engineering changes here don't put NVDA further ahead. Some stuff all gpu makers can do. Like quantize on transfer. But NVDA is so far ahead in other areas and DeepSeek leans heavily…
What gets me about the deepseek work is that it's neither novel or theoretically difficult.
I've been using a similar synthetic data pipeline to generate examples for sota bert embedding models.
That low-hanging fruits like this are left unexplored by meta or alphabet - and if we're to be believed lead to crisis meetings for a week straight - makes one wonder wtf the engineers there are doing?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Having read the paper from deepseek I seriously don't get how anyone can think "Oh now is the time to sell nvidia". Both at the tactical level and strategic level that paper means we will see _more_ nvidia gpus fly off the shelves. If anything it's showing why the h800 is a decent card and everyone in China should buy one (dozen thousands).
majority of Nvidia's profits are from huge companies particularly Microsoft and META not individuals buying graphics cards. Look at their current video gaming graphics sales and even if these ai consumer purchases were 10x what there previous graphics sales were then the current valuation wouldn't make sense. This is all ignoring the fact that if the h800 was good enough amd's top line cards should be too.
You can't pay me to use AMD cards. I have work to do. I don't have time to write drivers for cards that no one supports.
The point of the deepseek r1 paper is that the more synthetic data you generate by over trained models the better the resulting model. That means more GPUs. There is no reason why you can't train a dozen models like their nameless logic model in other domains and then use them for synthetic data augmentation.
This has actually been on my mind lately and I've been looking for statistics, from Denmark, but haven't been able to find any going back far enough. My assumptions is that we in the late 1940s through the 1950s had achieved a reasonable standard of living, but perhaps not available to all. Even if we assume that everyone in a country has access to the same, high, late 1950s standard of living, but applied modern tec…
https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/insulation-only-provides...
I made a comment yesterday that the whole NVDA thing seemed eerily similar to the AMZN thing in the first dot com crash. [0]. If the market can get sufficiently irrational, and we start to see that same like 80-90% markdown that we got with AMZN in the first crash, I mean, who knows? That's a golden opportunity. Not many generations get opportunities like that twice . I guess we'll see what happens with the stock pri…
At $95b in op income, you're looking at ~33 times op income for NVDA for 2025, or lower. I don't consider that a bargain but it's also not crazy expensive given the stock market valuation context + their growth + their market dominance in a critical field.
I made a comment yesterday that the whole NVDA thing seemed eerily similar to the AMZN thing in the first dot com crash. [0]. If the market can get sufficiently irrational, and we start to see that same like 80-90% markdown that we got with AMZN in the first crash, I mean, who knows? That's a golden opportunity. Not many generations get opportunities like that twice . I guess we'll see what happens with the stock pri…
Having read the paper from deepseek I seriously don't get how anyone can think "Oh now is the time to sell nvidia". Both at the tactical level and strategic level that paper means we will see _more_ nvidia gpus fly off the shelves. If anything it's showing why the h800 is a decent card and everyone in China should buy one (dozen thousands).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Having read the paper from deepseek I seriously don't get how anyone can think "Oh now is the time to sell nvidia". Both at the tactical level and strategic level that paper means we will see _more_ nvidia gpus fly off the shelves. If anything it's showing why the h800 is a decent card and everyone in China should buy one (dozen thousands).
Perception, not facts, primarily drive markets
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I had analyzed the paper as well, and gave some quick thoughts on a few of the low level things that stood out and would affect NVDA here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42856652 I have to agree. I'm not sure the architectural and engineering changes here don't put NVDA further ahead. Some stuff all gpu makers can do. Like quantize on transfer. But NVDA is so far ahead in other areas and DeepSeek leans heavily…
I can't wait for the 2000 dot com crash for AI. What gets me about the deepseek work is that it's neither novel or theoretically difficult. I've been using a similar synthetic data pipeline to generate examples for sota bert embedding models. That low-hanging fruits like this are left unexplored by meta or alphabet - and if we're to be believed lead to crisis meetings for a week straight - makes one wonder wtf the en…