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Jevons paradox

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Re: Jevons paradox

#6

Post by bilbo0s »

I made a comment yesterday that the whole NVDA thing seemed eerily similar to the AMZN thing in the first dot com crash. [0]. If the market can get sufficiently irrational, and we start to see that same like 80-90% markdown that we got with AMZN in the first crash, I mean, who knows? That's a golden opportunity. Not many generations get opportunities like that twice.

I guess we'll see what happens with the stock price, but long term I'm pretty confident in this Jevon's Paradox effect on AI use. I'm praying for more negativity hype out among those who maybe don't know as much about tech as the HN crowd. Because those people collectively, can move stock prices.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42853937

Re: Jevons paradox

#8

Post by llm_trw »

bilbo0s wrote: post #6

I made a comment yesterday that the whole NVDA thing seemed eerily similar to the AMZN thing in the first dot com crash. [0]. If the market can get sufficiently irrational, and we start to see that same like 80-90% markdown that we got with AMZN in the first crash, I mean, who knows? That's a golden opportunity. Not many generations get opportunities like that twice . I guess we'll see what happens with the stock pri…

Having read the paper from deepseek I seriously don't get how anyone can think "Oh now is the time to sell nvidia".

Both at the tactical level and strategic level that paper means we will see _more_ nvidia gpus fly off the shelves. If anything it's showing why the h800 is a decent card and everyone in China should buy one (dozen thousands).

Re: Jevons paradox

#9

Post by wslh »

bilbo0s wrote: post #6

I made a comment yesterday that the whole NVDA thing seemed eerily similar to the AMZN thing in the first dot com crash. [0]. If the market can get sufficiently irrational, and we start to see that same like 80-90% markdown that we got with AMZN in the first crash, I mean, who knows? That's a golden opportunity. Not many generations get opportunities like that twice . I guess we'll see what happens with the stock pri…

You can't apply Jevons paradox to everything, that would be predicting the future. However, you can try to analyze whether it holds in your specific context.

Comparing AMZN and NVDA is like comparing apples and oranges. Amazon has significantly diversified from its origins as an online bookseller and started when the internet, and later mobile devices, were not yet mainstream. NVDA, on the other hand, is an entirely different kind of company.

It doesn't matter whether it's AMZN or NVDA, you should try to distinguish between the company's fundamental value and the speculative component, as both are reflected in the price.

Re: Jevons paradox

#10

Post by bilbo0s »

llm_trw wrote: post #8
bilbo0s wrote: post #6

I made a comment yesterday that the whole NVDA thing seemed eerily similar to the AMZN thing in the first dot com crash. [0]. If the market can get sufficiently irrational, and we start to see that same like 80-90% markdown that we got with AMZN in the first crash, I mean, who knows? That's a golden opportunity. Not many generations get opportunities like that twice . I guess we'll see what happens with the stock pri…

Having read the paper from deepseek I seriously don't get how anyone can think "Oh now is the time to sell nvidia". Both at the tactical level and strategic level that paper means we will see _more_ nvidia gpus fly off the shelves. If anything it's showing why the h800 is a decent card and everyone in China should buy one (dozen thousands).

I had analyzed the paper as well, and gave some quick thoughts on a few of the low level things that stood out and would affect NVDA here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42856652

I have to agree. I'm not sure the architectural and engineering changes here don't put NVDA further ahead. Some stuff all gpu makers can do. Like quantize on transfer. But NVDA is so far ahead in other areas and DeepSeek leans heavily on that industry leading tech. At least at the low level.

But I'm betting the average investor doesn't have the level of facility with ML to properly analyze the information that's come out. Heck, I'm betting most of the people working in AI are really just TF or PyTorch monkeys. The real AI experts have probably been hovered up by MS or FB or AMZN or OpenAI or what have you. So it feels like we could get lucky here and the AI related market could drop like a rock taking the good with the bad. Which I think would be awesome for most people in a position to wait for it to happen.

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