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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#601

Post by brickfaced »

tw1984 wrote: post #599
yalogin wrote: post #565

Nvidia has gotten lucky repeatedly. The GPUs were great for PC gaming and they were the top dog. The crypto boom was such an unexpected win for them partly because Intel killed off their competition by acquiring it. Then the AI boom is also a direct result of Intel killing off their competition but the acquisition is too far removed to credit it to that event. Unlike the crypto boom though, two factors make me think…

> Unlike crypto there is no mathematical lower bound for computation this is what I feel, but is there any scientific proof on that?

Yes, the human brain

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#602

Post by edm0nd »

belevme wrote: post #368
paxys wrote: post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

I don't think it's fair to say NVDA is meme stock, having reported 35B revenue last quarter.

Would now be a good time to buy into NVDA if you are long on it?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#603

Post by amluto »

nejsjsjsbsb wrote: post #315
plaidfuji wrote: post #160

The part of this that doesn’t jibe with me is the fact that they also released this incredibly detailed technical report on their architecture and training strategy. The paper is well-written and has a lot of specifics. Exactly the opposite of what you would do if you had truly made an advancement of world-altering magnitude. All this says to me is that the models themselves have very little intrinsic value / are hig…

I always thought AMZN is the winner since I looked into Bedrock. When I saw Claude on there it added a fuck yeah, and now the best models being open just takes it to another level. AMZN: no horse picked, we host anything MSFT: Open AI GOOGLE: Google AI AMZN is in the strongest position.

AWS’s usual most doesn’t really apply here. AWS is Hotel California — if your business and data is in AWS, the cost of moving any data-intensive portion out of AWS is absurd due to egress fees. But LLM inference is not data-transfer intensive at all — a relatively small number of bytes/tokens go to the model, it does a lot of compute, and a relatively small number of tokens come back. So a business that’s stuck in AWS can cost-effectively outsource their LLM inference to a competitor without any substantial egress fees.

RAG is kind of an exception, but RAG still splits the database part from the inference part, and the inference part is what needs lots of inference-time compute. AWS may still have a strong moat for the compute needed to build an embedding database in the first place.

Simple, cheap, low-compute inference on large amounts of data is another exception, but this use will strongly favor the “cheap” part, which means there may not be as much money in it for AWS. No one is about to do o3-style inference on each of 1M old business records.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#604

Post by BoredomHeights »

ezoe wrote: post #584

I really don't understand the market thinks Nvidia is losing its value. If DeepSeek reduce the required computational resources, we can pour more computational resources to improve it further. There's nothing bad about more resources.

The market might be right that Nvidia is overvalued, but if so I think only accidentally and not because of this news. Like you said, at least for now I think it's fairly clear that if a company has X resources and finds a way to do the same thing with half, instead of using less they'll just try to do twice as much. This could eventually changed but I don't think AI is anywhere near that point yet.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#605

Post by sympil »

cageface wrote: post #590
eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

You could even say that overconfidence in abilities and knowledge outside of core expertise is the critical flaw of today's entire tech industry.

As a great example of this read Paul Graham’s essays that aren’t anout his core expertise.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#606

Post by talldayo »

eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

That means the remaining 10% are similarly disillusioned by the impression Apple or AMD could "just write" a CUDA alternative and compete on their merits. You don't want either of those people spending their money on datacenter bets.

10 years ago people said OpenCL would break CUDA's moat, 5 years ago people said ASICs would beat CUDA, and now we're arguing that older Nvidia GPUs will make CUDA obsolete. I have spent the past decade reading delusional eulogies for Nvidia, and I still find people adamant they're doomed despite being unable to name a real CUDA alternative.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#607

Post by diamond559 »

nullc wrote: post #529
Analemma_ wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree hype is a big portion of it, but if DeepSeek really has found a way to train models just as good as frontier ones for a hundredth of the hardware investment, that is a substantial material difference for Nvidia's future earnings.

I don't see how that follows. Making training more effective makes every unit of compute spent on training more valuable. This should increase demand unless we've reached a point where better models are not valuable. The openness of DeepSeek's approach also means that there will be more smaller entities engaging in training rather than a few massive entities that have more ability to set the price they pay. Plus reas…

Unless we get actual AGI I don't honestly care as a non coder. The art is slop and predatory, the chatbots are stilted and pointless, anytime a company uses AI there is huge backlash and there are just no commercial products with any real demand. Make it as cheap as dirt and I still don't see what use it is besides for scammers I guess...

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#608

Post by aurareturn »

eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

I think you’re wrong and Wallstreet got Deepseek’s impact wrong.

You say DeepSeek should decrease Nvidia demand. Wallstreet agreed today.

I say DeepSeek should increase Nvidia’s demand due to Jevon’s Paradox.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#609

Post by seanmcdirmid »

talldayo wrote: post #606
eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

That means the remaining 10% are similarly disillusioned by the impression Apple or AMD could "just write" a CUDA alternative and compete on their merits. You don't want either of those people spending their money on datacenter bets. 10 years ago people said OpenCL would break CUDA's moat, 5 years ago people said ASICs would beat CUDA, and now we're arguing that older Nvidia GPUs will make CUDA obsolete. I have spent…

Did ASICs beat CUDA out in crypto coin mining? Not the benchmark I really care about, but if things slow down in AI (they probably won’t) ASICs could probably take over some of it.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#610

Post by boringg »

eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

100%

Equity valuations for AI hardware future earnings changed dramatically in the last day. The belief that NVIDIA demand for their product is insatiable for the near future had been dented and the concern that energy is the biggest bottle neck might not be the case.

Lots to figure out on this information but the playbook radically changed.

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