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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#441

Post by jaggs »

jdietrich wrote: post #411
jaggs wrote: post #384

The real hidden message is not that bigger compute produces better results, but that the average user probably doesn't need the top results. In the same way that medium range laptops are now 'good enough' for most people's needs, medium range (e.g. DeepSeek R1x) AI will probably be good enough for most business and user needs. Up till now everyone assumed that only giga-sized server farms could produce anything decen…

>medium range (e.g. DeepSeek R1x) AI will probably be good enough for most business and user needs Except R1 isn't "medium range" - it's fully competitive with SOTA models at a fraction of the cost. Unless you need multimodal capability or you're desperate to wring out the last percentage point of performance, there's no good reason to use a more expensive model. The real hidden message is that we're still barely get…

Yes absolutely. I guess I meant medium range in terms of dev and running costs. R1 is a premium product at a corner store price. :)

People are also forgetting that High-Flyer's ultimate goal is not applications, it's AGI. Hence the open source. They want to accelerate that process out in the open as fast as they can.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#442

Post by esperent »

maxglute wrote: post #227
esperent wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> PRC companies breaking US export control laws is legal So long as they don't plan to do any business with the US or any of their allies I guess.

Hard to think they plan to, PRC strategic companies that gets competitive gets entity listed anyway. And CEO seems mission driven for AGI - if US going to limit hardware inevitably then nothing to do but go gloves off, and try to dunk on competition. At this point US can take deep seek off appstores but what's the point except to look petty. Eitherway, more technical ppl have pointed out some of the R1 optimizations…

> Hard to think they plan to

They already are. You can make a paid account and use their API from most countries around the world. This is what doing business looks like.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#443

Post by culi »

ozten wrote: post #431

NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…

Yeah but NVIDIA's amazing digging technique that could only be accomplished with NVIDIA shovels is now irrelevant. Meaning there are more people selling shovels for the gold rush

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#444

Post by doctorpangloss »

siwakotisaurav wrote: post #419
KiwiJohnno wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not quite, I believe this sell off was caused by DeepSeek showing with their new model that the hardware demands of AI are not necessarily as high as everyone has assumed (as required by competing models). I've tried their 7b model, running locally on a 6gb laptop GPU. Its not fast, but the results I've had have rivaled GPT4. Its impressive.

None of the models other than the 600b one are R1. They’re just prev gen models like llama or qwen trained on r1 output making them slightly better

Yeah but the second comment you see believes they are, and belief is truth when it comes to stock market gambling.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#446

Post by numba888 »

amazingamazing wrote: post #410
xiphias2 wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe you that it had to do with the selloff, but I believe that efficiency improvements are good news for NVIDIA: each card just got 20x more useful

each card is not 20x more useful lol. there's no evidence yet that the deepseek architecture would even yield a substantially (20x) more performant model with more compute. if there's evidence to the contrary I'd love to see. in any case I don't think a h800 is even 20x better than a h100 anyway, so the 20x increase has to be wrong.

> there's no evidence yet that the deepseek architecture would even yield a substantially more performant model with more compute.

It's supposed to. There was an info that the longer length of 'thinking' makes o3 model better than o1. I.e. at least at inference compute power still matters.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#447

Post by [deleted] »

paxys wrote: post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#448

Post by yo-cuddles »

Sol- wrote: post #54

I find it interesting because the DeepSeek stuff, while very cool, doesn't seem invalidate that more compute wouldn't translate to even _higher_ capabilities? It's amazing what they did with a limited budget, but instead of the takeaway being "we don't need that much compute to achieve X", it could also be, "These new results show that we can achieve even 1000*X with our currently planned compute buildout" But perhap…

Probably not. If the price of Nvidia is dropping, it's because investors see a world where Nvidia hardware is less valuable, probably because it will be used less.

You can't do the distill/magnify cycle like you do with alphago. LLM models have basically stalled in their base capabilities, pre training is basically over at this point, so the news arms race will be over marginal capability gains and (mostly) making them cheaper and cheaper.

But inference time scaling, right?

A weak model can pretend to be a stronger model if you let it cook for a long time. But right now it looks like models as strong as what we have aren't going to be very useful even if you let them run for a long, long time. Basic logic problems still tank o3 if they're not a kind that it's seen before.

Basically, there doesn't seem to be a use case for big data centers that run small models for long periods of time, they are in a danger zone of both not doing anything interesting and taking way too long to do it.

The AI war is going to turn into a price war, by my estimations. The models will be around as strong as the ones we have, perhaps with one more crank of quality. Then comes the empty, meaningless battle of just providing that service for as close to free as possible.

If Openai's agents panned out we might be having another conversation. But they didn't, and it wasn't even close.

This is probably it. There's not much left in the AI game

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#449

Post by behringer »

paxys wrote: post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

Whenever the internet tells you to buy, it's a huge warning that a pump and dump is occurring.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#450

Post by elihu »

ozten wrote: post #431

NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…

Jevon's paradox would imply that there's good reason to think that demand for shovels will increase. AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more".

(Many individual people are already saying that, but they aren't the people buying the GPUs for this in the first place. Steam engines weren't universally popular either when they were introduced to society.)

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