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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#371

Post by Analemma_ »

tgtweak wrote: post #354
paxys wrote: post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

Hype buyers are also Hype sellers - anything Nvidia was last week is exactly what it is this week - DeepSeek doesn't really have any impact on Nvidia sales - Some argument could be made that this can shift compute off of cloud and onto end user devices, but that really seems like a stretch given what I've seen running this locally.

I agree hype is a big portion of it, but if DeepSeek really has found a way to train models just as good as frontier ones for a hundredth of the hardware investment, that is a substantial material difference for Nvidia's future earnings.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#372

Post by energy123 »

paxys wrote: post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

This is a cookie cutter comment that appears to have been copy pasted from a thread about Gamestop or something. DeepSeek R1 allegedly being almost 50x more compute efficient isn't just a "vague rumor". You do this community a disservice by commenting before understanding what investors are thinking at the current moment.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#373

Post by codingwagie »

paxys wrote: post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

No the reality of AI models fundamentally changed

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#374

Post by amazingamazing »

magic_hamster wrote: post #339
h1h1hh1h1h1 wrote: post #334

So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?

I think the idea that SOTA models can run on limited hardware makes people think that Nvidia sales will take a hit. But if you think about it for two more seconds you realize that if SOTA was trained on mid level hardware, top of the line hardware could still put you ahead, and DeepSeek is also open source so it won't take long to see what this architecture could do on high end cards.

there's no reason to believe that performance will continue to scale with compute, though. that's why there's a rout. more simply, if you assume maximum performance with the current LLM/transformer architecture is say, twice as good as what humanity is capable of now, then that would mean that you're approaching 50%+ performance with orders of magnitude less compute. there's just no way you could justify the amount of money being spent on nvidia cards if that's true, hence the selloff.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#375

Post by zozbot234 »

tgtweak wrote: post #354
paxys wrote: post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

Hype buyers are also Hype sellers - anything Nvidia was last week is exactly what it is this week - DeepSeek doesn't really have any impact on Nvidia sales - Some argument could be made that this can shift compute off of cloud and onto end user devices, but that really seems like a stretch given what I've seen running this locally.

The full DeepSeek model is ~700B params or so - way too large for most end users to run locally. What some folks are running locally is fine-tuned versions of Llama and Qwen, that are not going to be directly comparable in any way.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#376

Post by brokencode »

DiscourseFan wrote: post #343
h1h1hh1h1h1 wrote: post #334

So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?

No, because what this implies is that the Chinese have better labor power in the tech-sector than the US, considering how much more efficient this technology is. Which means that even if US companies adopt these practices, the best workers will still be in China, communicating largely in Chinese, building relationships with other Chinese-speaking people purchasing chinese speaking labor. These relationships are alrea…

What a stretch. One Chinese model makes a breakthrough in efficiency and suddenly China has all the best people in the world?

What about all the people who invented LLMs and all the necessary hardware here in the US? What about all the models that leapfrog each other in the US every few months?

One breakthrough implies that they had a great idea and implemented it well. It doesn’t imply anything more than that.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#377

Post by pokstad »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #342
h1h1hh1h1h1 wrote: post #334

So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?

If people are bullish on Nvidia because the hot new thing requires tons of Nvidia hardware and someone releases a paper showing you need 1/45th of Nvidia's hardware to get the same results, of course there's going to be pullback. Whether its justified or not is outside my wheelhouse. There's too many "it depends" involved that, best case, only people working in the field can answer, worst case, no one can answer righ…

Or you could argue you can now do 45x greater things with the same hardware. You can take an optimistic stance on this.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#378

Post by dragonwriter »

paulddraper wrote: post #359
bilbo0s wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's probably more accurate to say that people are now a bit more bullish on what the Chinese will be able to accomplish even in the face of trade restrictions. Now whether or not it makes sense to be bearish on US AI is a totally different issue. Personally I think being bearish on US AI makes zero sense. I'm almost positive there will be restrictions on using Chinese models forthcoming in the near to medium…

US AI is only somewhat related though. The subject is NVIDIA.

I think the market perception of NVidia’s value is currently heavily driven by the expected demand for datacenter chips following anticipated trendlines of the big US AI firms; I think DeepSeek disrupted that (I think when the implications of greater value per unit of compute applied to AI are realized, it will end up being seen as beneficial to the GPU market in general and, barring a big challenge appearing in the very near future, NVidia specifically, but I think that's a slower process.)

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#379

Post by master_crab »

belevme wrote: post #368
paxys wrote: post #341

IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.

I don't think it's fair to say NVDA is meme stock, having reported 35B revenue last quarter.

True but with that revenue number it would mean that before today it was valued at ~100x revenue. That’s pretty bubbly.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#380

Post by impossiblefork »

r00fus wrote: post #293
nialv7 wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to be prepared for the reality that naive scaling no longer works for LLMs anymore. Simple question: where is GPT-5?

There is a theory that Deepseek gives based on it's distillation process that hints towards, that o1 is really a distillation of a bigger GPT (GPT5?). Some consider this to be spurious/conspiracy.

There is a big model from NVIDIA that I assume is for this purpose, i.e. Megatron 530b, so it doesn't sound too unreasonable.

Edit: I assumed that the model was distillation, that is apparently not true.

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