IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
341–350 of 1001 posts
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#342So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?
If people are bullish on Nvidia because the hot new thing requires tons of Nvidia hardware and someone releases a paper showing you need 1/45th of Nvidia's hardware to get the same results, of course there's going to be pullback.
Whether its justified or not is outside my wheelhouse. There's too many "it depends" involved that, best case, only people working in the field can answer, worst case, no one can answer right now.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#343So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?
No, because what this implies is that the Chinese have better labor power in the tech-sector than the US, considering how much more efficient this technology is. Which means that even if US companies adopt these practices, the best workers will still be in China, communicating largely in Chinese, building relationships with other Chinese-speaking people purchasing chinese speaking labor. These relationships are already present. It would be difficult for OpenAI to catch up.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#344Still overvalued IMO. Their market cap remains ludicrous.
Everything is overvalued if you think in terms of earning multiples, p/s, p/e should be 1:1
Who's out here buying businesses for 1x the sales revenue volume? What a silly concept. If businesses could be so cheap, you'd just double down every single year until you owned every business on the planet.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#345IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
Hard to argue Nvidia is a meme stock and that Tesla is not a bigger meme stock.
If meme stocks were imploding, why is Tesla fine?
This is about DeepSeek.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#346I just want to know if I can buy a gaming video card at a reasonable price or if i should hold off on it. I don't care about the AI shit. And yes I'd prefer nvidia because their closest competitor can't tape a box together nevermind develop and assemble a graphics card.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#347So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?
I think it's probably more accurate to say that people are now a bit more bullish on what the Chinese will be able to accomplish even in the face of trade restrictions. Now whether or not it makes sense to be bearish on US AI is a totally different issue.
Personally I think being bearish on US AI makes zero sense. I'm almost positive there will be restrictions on using Chinese models forthcoming in the near to medium term. I'm not saying those restrictions will make sense. I'm just saying they will steer people in the US market towards US offerings.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#348So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?
Not the AI proper, but the need for additional AI hardware down the line. Especially the super-expensive, high-margin, huge AI hardware that DeepSeek seems not to require.
Similarly, microcomputers led to an explosion of computer market, but definitely limited the market for mainframe behemoths.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#349Not sure what the fuss is. I tried Deepseek earlier today for the first time and it was even worse than o1 when it came to reasoning skills and following my requests for how I wanted to engage with it. o1 at least gives it to me straight. When I ask it to engage in more back and forth before assuming what I'm after, it tends to follow through. Deepseek seemed immediately eager to (very slowly) feed me a bunch of made…
R1 is the first model I've used that one-shotted a full JavaScript tetris with all the edge-case keyboard handling and scoring. It also one-shotted an AI snake game. With the right prompts I've found it consistently better than o1 and Claude 3.5 Sonnet.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#350IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
Hard to argue Nvidia is a meme stock and that Tesla is not a bigger meme stock. If meme stocks were imploding, why is Tesla fine? This is about DeepSeek.
What does any of this have to do with Tesla? Even if Tesla is a bigger bubble, not all bubbles have to pop at the same time.