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The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

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Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#131

Post by csomar »

idonotknowwhy wrote: post #126
csomar wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Better Linux drivers than AMD Unless something radically changed in the last couple years, I am not sure where you got this from? (I am specifically talking about GPUs for computer usage rather than training/inference)

> Unless something radically changed in the last couple years, I am not sure where you got this from? This was the first thing that stuck out to me when I skimmed the article, and the reason I decided to invest the time reading it all. I can tell the author knows his shit and isn't just parroting everyone's praise for AMD Linux drivers. > (I am specifically talking about GPUs for computer usage rather than training/i…

Wayland was a requirement for me. I've used an AMD GPU for years. I had a bug exactly once with a linux update. But has been stable since.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#132

Post by madaxe_again »

epolanski wrote: post #100
breadwinner wrote: post #26

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

> Any serious competitor must address ALL of Nvidia's advantages. Not really, his article focuses on Nvidia's being valued so highly by stock markets, he's not saying that Nvidia's destined to lose its advantage in the space in the short term. In any case, I also think that the likes of MSFT/AMZN/etc will be able to reduce their capex spending eventually by being able to work on a well integrated stack on their own.

They have an enormous amount of catching up to do, however; Nvidia have created an entire AI ecosystem that touches almost every aspect of what AI can do. Whatever it is, they have a model for it, and a framework and toolkit for working with or extending that model - and the ability to design software and hardware in lockstep. Microsoft and Amazon have a very diffuse surface area when it comes to hardware, and being a decent generalist doesn’t make you a good specialist.

Nvidia are doing phenomenal things with robotics, and that is likely to be the next shoe to drop, and they are positioned for another catalytic moment similar to that which we have seen with LLMS.

I do think we will see some drawback or at least deceleration this year while the current situation settles in, but within the next three years I think we will see humanoid robots popping up all over the place, particularly as labour shortages arise due to political trends - and somebody is going to have to provide the compute, both local and cloud, and the vision, movement, and other models. People will turn to the sensible and known choice.

So yeah, what you say is true, but I don’t think is going to have an impact on the trajectory of nvidia.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#133

Post by hmm37 »

breadwinner wrote: post #37
eigenvalue wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. You just need to see a slight deceleration in projected revenue growth (which has been running 120%+ YoY recently) and some downward pressure on gross margins, and maybe even just some market share loss, and the stock could easily fall 25% from that.

AMD P/E ratio is 109, NVDA is 56. Which stock is overvalued?

You have to look at non-gaap numbers, and therefore looking at forward PE ratios is necessary. When you look at that, AMD is cheaper than NVDA. Moreover, the reason why AMD PE ratio looks high is because they bought xilinx, and in order to save on taxes, it makes their PE ratio look really high.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#134

Post by yapyap »

breadwinner wrote: post #26

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

Geohot still at it?

goat.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#135

Post by naiv »

nejsjsjsbsb wrote: post #118
naiv wrote: post #107

I used to own several adult companies in the past. Incredible huge margins and then along came Pornhub and we could barely survive after it as we did not adapt. With Deepseek this is now the 'Pornhub of AI' moment. Adapt or die.

That analogy would be if right if a startup could dredge beach sand and pump put trillions of AI chips. What actually happened was a better algorithm was created and people are betting against the main game in town for running said algorithm. If someone came up with a CPU-superior AI that'd be worrying for NVidia.

Groq lpu interference chip?

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#136

Post by grajaganDev »

lxgr wrote: post #59
grajaganDev wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is not enough water (to cool data centers) to justify NVDA's current valuation. The same is true of electricity - neither nuclear power nor fusion will not be online anytime soon.

Those are definitely not the limiting factors here. Not nearly all data centers are water cooled, and there is this amazing technology that can convert sunlight into electricity in a relatively straightforward way. AI workloads (at least training) are just about as geographically distributeable as it gets due to not being very latency-sensitive, and even if you can't obtain sufficient grid interconnection or buffer s…

Right - they are not limiting factors, they are reasons that NVDA is overvalued.

Stock price is based on future earnings.

The smart money knows this and is reacting this morning - thus the drop in NVDA.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#137

Post by TwoFerMaggie »

breadwinner wrote: post #68

Part of the reason Musk, Zuckerberg, Ellison, Nadella and other CEOs are bragging about the number of GPUs they have (or plan to have) is to attract talent. Perplexity CEO says he tried to hire an AI researcher from Meta, and was told to ‘come back to me when you have 10,000 H100 GPUs’ See https://www.businessinsider.nl/ceo-says-he-tried-to-hire-an-...

This reminds of the joke in physics, in which theoretical particle physicists told experimental physicists, over and over again, "trust me bro, standard model will be proved at 10x eV, we just need a bigger collider bro" after another world's biggest collider is built.

Wondering if we are in a similar position with "trust me bro AGI will be achieved with 10x more GPUs".

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#138

Post by grajaganDev »

energy123 wrote: post #104
grajaganDev wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is not enough water (to cool data centers) to justify NVDA's current valuation. The same is true of electricity - neither nuclear power nor fusion will not be online anytime soon.

Solar microgrids are cheaper and faster than nuclear. New nuclear isn't happening on the timescales that matter, even assuming significant deregulation.

Can you back up that solar microgrids will supply enough power to justify NVDA's current valuation?

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#140

Post by willvarfar »

breadwinner wrote: post #26

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

A new entrant, with an order of magnitude advantage in e.g. cost or availability or exportability, can succeed even with poor drivers and no CUDA etc. Its only when you cost nearly as much as NVidia that the tooling costs become relevant.
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