101–110 of 500 posts
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is that good or bad?
Honestly I tried searching his recent tweets for AMD and there was way too much noise in there to figure out his current position!
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I want the NVIDIA monopoly to end, but there is no real competition still. * George Hotz has basically given up on AMD: https://x.com/__tinygrad__/status/1770151484363354195 * Groq can't produce more hardware past their "demo". It seems like they haven't grown capacity in the years since they announced, and they switched to a complete SaaS model and don't even sell hardware anymore. * I dont know enough about MLX, Tr…
It looks like he’s close to having own AMD stack, tweet linked in the article, Jan 15,2025: https://x.com/__tinygrad__/status/1879615316378198516
The beginning of the article was good, but the analysis of DeepSeek and what it means for Nvidia is confused and clearly out of the loop. * People have been training models at
Where do you have this "capacity" limit from? I can get as many H100s from GCP or wherever as I wish, the only thing that is capacity limited are 100k clusters ala ELON+X, but what DeepSeek (and the recent evidence of a limit in pure base-model scaling) shows is that this might actually not be profitable, and we end up with much smaller base models scaled at inference time. The moat for Nvidia in this inference time…
Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…
There is not enough water (to cool data centers) to justify NVDA's current valuation. The same is true of electricity - neither nuclear power nor fusion will not be online anytime soon.
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That is extraordinarily simplistic. If NVDA is slowing and AMD has gains to realize compared to NVDA, then the 10x difference in market cap would imply that AMD is the better buy. Which is why I am long in AMD. You can't just look at the current P/E delta. You have to look at expectations of one vs the other. AMD gaining 2x over NVDA means they are approximately equivalently valued. If there are unrealized AI related…
The point is, it should not be taken for granted that NVDA is overvalued. Their P/E is low enough that if you’re going to state that they are overvalued you have to make the case. The article while well written, fails to make the case because it has a flaw: it assumes that addressing just one of Nvidia’s advantages is enough to make it crash and that’s just not true.
Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…
He's setting up a case for shorting the stock, ie if the growth or margins drop a little from any of these (often well-funded) threats. The accuracy of the article is a function of the current valuation.
ah ... no ... that's nonsense trying to hide behind stilted math lingo.
With Deepseek this is now the 'Pornhub of AI' moment. Adapt or die.
Part of the reason Musk, Zuckerberg, Ellison, Nadella and other CEOs are bragging about the number of GPUs they have (or plan to have) is to attract talent. Perplexity CEO says he tried to hire an AI researcher from Meta, and was told to ‘come back to me when you have 10,000 H100 GPUs’ See https://www.businessinsider.nl/ceo-says-he-tried-to-hire-an-...
I used to own several adult companies in the past. Incredible huge margins and then along came Pornhub and we could barely survive after it as we did not adapt. With Deepseek this is now the 'Pornhub of AI' moment. Adapt or die.