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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#141

Post by gitfan86 »

short_sells_poo wrote: post #111
dogma1138 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand that part, hence why this is very much buy the dip for me.

It's not just the usual herding behavior though. There's a convex response to news like this because people look at higher order effects like the growth of growth for stocks. Basically the DeepSeek story is about needing 40x fewer compute resources to run inference if their benchmarks are true. The dip doesn't mean that NVidia is now doomed, it simply means that if DeepSeek is legit, you need much less NV hardware to…

As someone who bought NVDA in early 2023 and sold in late 2024 I can say this is wrong.

There was never a question of if NVDA hardware would have high demand in 2025 and 2026. Everyone still expects them to sell everything they make. The reason the stock is crashing is because Wall St believed that companies who bought 50B+ of NVDA hardware would have a moat. That was obviously always incorrect, TPUs and other hardware was eventually going to be good enough for real world use cases. But Wall St is run by people who don't understand technology.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#142

Post by diggan »

InkCanon wrote: post #76
spacebanana7 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meta should actually go up from this. If deep seek is perfect they don't need to pay for an expensive Llama team. And even if deep seek isn't perfect, the low cost training strategies they've invented could be used by Meta to reduce the cost of Llama training. Although Meta develops models they don't sell them. So a world where foundation models are free is fine for them.

But if they don't sell them, are they spending 50 billion a year on open source goodwill?

No, it seems to me like a stopgap measure against others, rather than anything for themselves. If they were out after "open source goodwill" they'd actually release the models as open source (like let people use it without signing a license/terms agreement, and use models for whatever). As it stands today, they're tricking people into "open source goodwill" but it will eventually catch up with them.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#143

Post by novaRom »

dogma1138 wrote: post #58
Etheryte wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While everything you say may be true, this shows a fundamental misunderstanding about how the modern stock market functions. How much value a company creates is at best tangential and often completely orthogonal to how much the stock is worth. The stock market has always been a Keynesian beauty contest, but in the past few decades, strongly shaped and morphed by attention economies. A good example of this is DJT, a c…

I understand that part, hence why this is very much buy the dip for me.

I think the message everyone now accepts is: "there is no moat". It is plain stupid to think big models can be magically copy-protected - they are simply arrays of numbers and all components one need to create such arrays are free and well established. This is unlike the whole infrastructure, processes, social connections, hardware and storage, one need say to recreate a service like YouTube or Facebook. Large models are different - you don't need all of that - the future of LLMs is Open Source like Linux.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#144

Post by jart »

Dalewyn wrote: post #72
Sol- wrote: post #54

I find it interesting because the DeepSeek stuff, while very cool, doesn't seem invalidate that more compute wouldn't translate to even _higher_ capabilities? It's amazing what they did with a limited budget, but instead of the takeaway being "we don't need that much compute to achieve X", it could also be, "These new results show that we can achieve even 1000*X with our currently planned compute buildout" But perhap…

The stock market is not the economy, Wall Street is not Main Street. You need to look at this more macroscopically if you want to understand this. Basically: China tech sector just made a big splash, traders who witnessed this think other traders will sell because maybe US tech sector wasn't as hot, so they sell as other traders also think that and sell. The fall will come to rest once stocks have fallen enough that…

Not really.

The Magnificent Seven are the only thing propping up the whole US economy.

If they go down, you go down.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#145

Post by nejsjsjsbsb »

zo1 wrote: post #43

Wow, literally bought more Nvidia shares last week. Just goes to show the stock market is 80% gambling. Me believing in the value of a company is overshadowed by the hype of growth and "future valuation".

But it doesn't matter because you got them at a price you deemed they were worth based on some analysis right? :)

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#146

Post by malinens »

nobunaga wrote: post #25
dogma1138 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVIDIA has a P/E ratio of 56 that’s double that of the S&P 500 but half that of AMD and the same one as Meta. And whether it’s overvalued or not isn’t relevant that selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid.

AMD does not have a PE double of NVIDIA. PE is high because of amortisation of an acquisition. People on hackernews talk a lot but have no idea what they talk about. You might know how to write javascript or some other language but clearly you have not read the earnings reports or financials of AMD and probably alot of the other companies you talk about. So please stop spreading nonsense. Just for those that clearly…

You are correct but please read: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#comments

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#147

Post by igleria »

sekai wrote: post #87
fancyfredbot wrote: post #31

The people writing market commentary are simply making it up. The news about DeepSeek is not new and doesn't reduce the value of ASML. People are selling now because they are scared because the number went down.

Andrej Karpathy was tweeting about DeepSeek a month (!) ago. "DeepSeek (Chinese AI co) making it look easy today with an open weights release of a frontier-grade LLM trained on a joke of a budget (2048 GPUs for 2 months, $6M)." https://x.com/karpathy/status/1872362712958906460

this same forum ignored deepseek one month ago, save for a few... open minded people.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#148

Post by nejsjsjsbsb »

rvz wrote: post #132
romanovcode wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does Apple have to do with AI

Nothing. Apple (and Meta) are not directly impacted by AI even if the cost of training these AI models becomes cheaper and $0 free models get better. It actually affects the frontier AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc) who directly make money from their closed models AND spend hundreds of millions on training these models. Why pay $3/per million tokens (Claude 3.5 Sonnet) when DeepSeek R1 offers $0.14 / per million…

Yes. The shovels (Nvidia) should be happy with this. The competition gold diggers should be scared of the alchemists. This analogy ain't working.

But yeah agree with you!

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#150

Post by pizza »

Traders are saying not doing multitoken prediction, not using Sharpe ratio adjusted rewards, using reward models, and not compressing KV cache tokens by >90%, were supposed to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars of future expected revenue flow, at least according to other traders.

I say to the traders: you should have just stuck to reading arxiv, TPOT, and jhana twitter for the past 2 years, rather than listening to other traders, if you were trying to understand the utter spread of low hanging fruit that just hasn’t been picked up yet!

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