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The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

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Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#111

Post by adastra22 »

xuki wrote: post #99
adastra22 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

George Hotz is a hot Internet celebrity that has basically accomplished nothing of value but has a large cult following. You can safely ignore. (Famous for hacking the PS3–except he just took credit for a separate group’s work. And for making a self-driving car in his garage—except oh wait that didn’t happen either.)

He was famous before the PS3 hack, he was the first person to unlock the original iPhone.

Yes, but it's worth mentioning that the break consisted of opening up the phone and soldering on a bypass for the carrier card locking logic. That certainly required some skills to do, but is not an attack Apple was defending against. This unlocking break didn't really lead to anything, and was unlike the later software unlocking methods that could be widely deployed.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#112

Post by naiv »

logicchains wrote: post #109
naiv wrote: post #107

I used to own several adult companies in the past. Incredible huge margins and then along came Pornhub and we could barely survive after it as we did not adapt. With Deepseek this is now the 'Pornhub of AI' moment. Adapt or die.

Curious what Pornhub did better, if you're able to say. Provide content at much lower cost, like DeepSeek?

Yes. close to free content

They understood the Dmca brilliantly so they did bulk cheap content purchases and hid behind the Dmca for all non licensed content which was "uploaded by users". They did bulk purchases of cheap content from some studios but that was just a fraction

Of course their risk of going advertise revenue only was high and in the beginning mostly only cam providers would advertise

Our problem was that we had contracts and close relationships with all the big studios so going the Dmca route would have severed these ties for an unknown risk. In hindsight not creating a company which did abuse the Dmca was the right decision. I am very loyal and it would have felt like cheating

Now it's a different story after the credit card shake down when they had to remove millions of videos and be able to provide 2257 documentation for each video

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#113

Post by high_na_euv »

breadwinner wrote: post #15
jjeaff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it uses a fractional amount of GPUs though.

As it says in the article, you are talking about a mere constant of proportionality, a single multiple. When you're dealing with an exponential growth curve, that stuff gets washed out so quickly that it doesn't end up matter all that much. Keep in mind that the goal everyone is driving towards is AGI, not simply an incremental improvement over the latest model from Open AI.

Why do you assume that exponential growth curve is real?

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#115

Post by chvid »

For sure NVIDIA is priced for perfection perhaps more than any of the other of similar market value.

I think two threats are the biggest:

First Apple. TSMC’s largest customer. They are already making their own GPUs for their data centers. If they were to sell these to others they would be a major competitor.

You would have the same GPU stack on your on phone, laptop, pc, and data center. Already big developer mind share. Also useful in a world where LLMs run (in part) on the end user’s local machine (like Apple Intelligence).

Second is China - Huawei, Deepseek etc.

Yes - there will be no GPUs from Huawei in the US in this decade. And the Chinese won’t win in a big massive battle. Rather it is going to be death by a thousand cuts.

Just as what happened with the Huawei Mate 60. It is only sold in China but today Apple is loosing business big time in China.

In the same manner OpenAi and Microsoft will have their business hurt by Deepseek even if Deepseek was completely banned in the west.

Likely we will see news on Chinese AI accelerators this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if we soon saw Chinese hyperscalars offering cheaper GPU cloud compute than the west due to a combination of cheaper energy, labor cost, and sheer scale.

Lastly AMD is no threat to NVIDIA as they are far behind and follow the same path with little way of differentiating themselves.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#116

Post by punkspider »

eigenvalue wrote: post #64
simonw wrote: post #48

This is excellent writing. Even if you have no interest at all in stock market shorting strategies there is plenty of meaty technical content in here, including some of the clearest summaries I've seen anywhere of the interesting ideas from the DeepSeek v3 and R1 papers.

Thanks Simon! I’m a big fan of your writing (and tools) so it means a lot coming from you.

I was excited as soon as I saw the domain name. Even after a few months, this article[1] is still at the top of my mind. You have a certain way of writing.

I remember being surprised at first because I thought it would feel like a wall of text. But it was such a good read and I felt I gained so much.

1: https://youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com/blog/02_what_i_learne...

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#117

Post by eigenvalue »

punkspider wrote: post #116
eigenvalue wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks Simon! I’m a big fan of your writing (and tools) so it means a lot coming from you.

I was excited as soon as I saw the domain name. Even after a few months, this article[1] is still at the top of my mind. You have a certain way of writing. I remember being surprised at first because I thought it would feel like a wall of text. But it was such a good read and I felt I gained so much. 1: https://youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com/blog/02_what_i_learne...

I really appreciate that, thanks so much!

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#118

Post by nejsjsjsbsb »

naiv wrote: post #107

I used to own several adult companies in the past. Incredible huge margins and then along came Pornhub and we could barely survive after it as we did not adapt. With Deepseek this is now the 'Pornhub of AI' moment. Adapt or die.

That analogy would be if right if a startup could dredge beach sand and pump put trillions of AI chips.

What actually happened was a better algorithm was created and people are betting against the main game in town for running said algorithm.

If someone came up with a CPU-superior AI that'd be worrying for NVidia.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#119

Post by csomar »

breadwinner wrote: post #26

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

> - Better Linux drivers than AMD

Unless something radically changed in the last couple years, I am not sure where you got this from? (I am specifically talking about GPUs for computer usage rather than training/inference)

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#120

Post by nejsjsjsbsb »

punkspider wrote: post #116
eigenvalue wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks Simon! I’m a big fan of your writing (and tools) so it means a lot coming from you.

I was excited as soon as I saw the domain name. Even after a few months, this article[1] is still at the top of my mind. You have a certain way of writing. I remember being surprised at first because I thought it would feel like a wall of text. But it was such a good read and I felt I gained so much. 1: https://youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com/blog/02_what_i_learne...

I was put off by the domain by bias against something that sounds like a company blog. Especially a "YouTube something".

You may get more milage from excellent writing on a yourname.com. This is a piece that sells you not this product, plus it feels more timeless. In 2050 someone my point to this post. Better if it were on your own name.

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