LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed • Hacker News Board

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#41

Post by JumpCrisscross » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:33 PM UTC

esalman wrote: post #32

trhway wrote: post #21

One can imagine an IR monitoring (satellite or high flying drones like Reaper, one drone can see an IR source like a tank from 100km, so it would take just a few drones to monitor the the whole state for fires) with [almost] automated immediate dispatching of the fleet of drones (not small quadcopters, more like WWII size bombers) once the fire is detected. Would be much cheaper than having multi-billion dollar fires…

There's no air support to contain fire because of dangerously high wind. Asking for drones now is like a dumb person's idea of cheap science fiction.

I think they’re talking about dousing when it first lights. That isn’t “a dumb person’s idea.” But it is presently beyond our capabilities, to say nothing of the huge privacy problem it would entail.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#42

Post by trhway » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:34 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #31

trhway wrote: post #21

One can imagine an IR monitoring (satellite or high flying drones like Reaper, one drone can see an IR source like a tank from 100km, so it would take just a few drones to monitor the the whole state for fires) with [almost] automated immediate dispatching of the fleet of drones (not small quadcopters, more like WWII size bombers) once the fire is detected. Would be much cheaper than having multi-billion dollar fires…

> it would take just a few drones per the whole state What are you basing this on? Being able to see something once you know it’s there is a different problem from detecting it in the first place.

there is no issue in detecting. You sweep the area. The IR sources like a tank - pops up like Xmas tree even on relatively cheap IR from 10km (there is a lot of footage from Ukraine war for example). A house fire would easily pop-up even from tens of km. A acre size fire - it would pop-up even on coarse grain IR from space.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#43

Post by JumpCrisscross » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:34 PM UTC

esalman wrote: post #35

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

With much of California, Texas and Florida property damage is concentrated where folks built where they shouldn’t have [1]. (At times nudged on by subsidised insurance [2].) Is that true in this case, too? (Being so close to LA, it doesn’t strike me that it could be.) If not, is my general thesis off? [1] https://www.npr.org/2023/11/06/1204923950/arizona-california... [2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article…

They've actually stopped permitting new builds or rebuild of burned houses in Santa Ana mountains since last year's airport fire.

Huh, I’m actually surprised a high-risk area is that close to LA. (Santa Monica, no less.)

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#44

Post by 0xffff2 » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:34 PM UTC

crazygringo wrote: post #36

trhway wrote: post #21

One can imagine an IR monitoring (satellite or high flying drones like Reaper, one drone can see an IR source like a tank from 100km, so it would take just a few drones to monitor the the whole state for fires) with [almost] automated immediate dispatching of the fleet of drones (not small quadcopters, more like WWII size bombers) once the fire is detected. Would be much cheaper than having multi-billion dollar fires…

You're currently being downvoted, but I'm genuinely curious -- is continuous IR monitoring from the sky an effective way to detect wildfires earlier? Or are small fires indistinguishable from a million other hot objects, until the point where they get large enough to detect reliably, it's already obvious to everyone on the ground from the smoke?

Yes, it is effective. We have several NASA/NOAA satellites with IR instruments on them that are used for fire detection. These are obviously much more useful for detecting fires that start in very rural areas under moderate conditions. The current crop of fires in LA are all very close to populated areas and spread fast, so satellite mapping wasn't of any use for detection. Also, California in particular has a really great fleet of IR mapping planes that give firefighters and the public much more detailed fire information than the satellite coverage, but when I lived in Oregon where they don't have a similar system, the satellite coverage was often the most up to date information on fire perimeters.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#45

Post by nomel » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:34 PM UTC

esalman wrote: post #32

trhway wrote: post #21

One can imagine an IR monitoring (satellite or high flying drones like Reaper, one drone can see an IR source like a tank from 100km, so it would take just a few drones to monitor the the whole state for fires) with [almost] automated immediate dispatching of the fleet of drones (not small quadcopters, more like WWII size bombers) once the fire is detected. Would be much cheaper than having multi-billion dollar fires…

There's no air support to contain fire because of dangerously high wind. Asking for drones now is like a dumb person's idea of cheap science fiction.

> Asking for drones now

He did not. It would be worth re-reading his comment. He's pointing out that we do have technology that could help with containment: quickly identify fires, communicate their location, and dispatch some local water carriers. He's also surmising that the cost of keeping these active would be less than the cost of damages, which could very well be true.

Something like a Reaper drone, which he specifically mentions, works fine in the wind, as do the water carriers, that fly at hundreds of miles an hour, that have been actively helping this whole time.

I think this is probably all true, but probably not the future since it would require a competent state government who embraces tech.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#46

Post by gamblor956 » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:35 PM UTC

Gibbon1 wrote: post #28

0xffff2 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, 3 separate fires. The first in West LA blew up late yesterday afternoon and blew through a bunch of residential areas by the looks of it. From watching Flight Radar, it seems to be getting most of the air resources, although that could just be because wind conditions are favorable on that fire today. The second fire near Pasadena started yesterday as well, but really blew up overnight. The third fire up North I…

I saw a video of of it burning down down houses and commecial building Altedena, unlike newscasts where the lip flappers are blabbing over everything you could hear the wind howling and see streams of embers blowing down the street and overhead.

The lip flappers, as you call them, are providing valuable information to people who lived and/or worked in the areas where the fires are occurring.

As I type this, ABC7 is providing intersections-specific location information for their reporters-on-the-ground so that people can track the progress of the fire and hopefully determine the status of their houses.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#47

Post by JumpCrisscross » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:35 PM UTC

trhway wrote: post #42

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it would take just a few drones per the whole state What are you basing this on? Being able to see something once you know it’s there is a different problem from detecting it in the first place.

there is no issue in detecting. You sweep the area. The IR sources like a tank - pops up like Xmas tree even on relatively cheap IR from 10km (there is a lot of footage from Ukraine war for example). A house fire would easily pop-up even from tens of km. A acre size fire - it would pop-up even on coarse grain IR from space.

> house fire would easily pop-up even from tens of km. A acre size fire - it would pop-up even on coarse grain IR from space

Both of these produce lots of smoke. Neither can be doused by drones.

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#48

Post by rurp » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:35 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #23

Dalewyn wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deserts are generally uninhabitable by their very nature, but these persistent fires are primarily due to lack of proper underbrush care and other preventative measures. California fires are a classic case of "We tried nothing and we're out of ideas!" , speaking as a former Californian I honestly think the faster solution at this point is for enough of the state to burn down that pretending the problem doesn't exist…

> Deserts are generally uninhabitable by their very nature Deserts don’t have wildfires. (EDIT: They do!)

Deserts absolutely have wildfires, and are even pretty common in California deserts. The second largest fire in the state for 2023 was the York Fire in the Mojave Desert[0]. There have been many other sizable desert fires in recent years as well.

As with many other landscapes, climate change, drought, and aquifer depletion have made deserts increasingly vulnerable to large wildfires.

[0]https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-07-31/york-fir...

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#49

Post by atonse » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:36 PM UTC

crazygringo wrote: post #36

trhway wrote: post #21

One can imagine an IR monitoring (satellite or high flying drones like Reaper, one drone can see an IR source like a tank from 100km, so it would take just a few drones to monitor the the whole state for fires) with [almost] automated immediate dispatching of the fleet of drones (not small quadcopters, more like WWII size bombers) once the fire is detected. Would be much cheaper than having multi-billion dollar fires…

You're currently being downvoted, but I'm genuinely curious -- is continuous IR monitoring from the sky an effective way to detect wildfires earlier? Or are small fires indistinguishable from a million other hot objects, until the point where they get large enough to detect reliably, it's already obvious to everyone on the ground from the smoke?

I'm not so sure. In nVidia's keynote, they had an example of small smoke plumes identified as potential fires. If you had a drone hovering over a particular city to monitor fires, it could potentially be an early warning system, no?

And to others that said that the winds are dangerous, do quadcopter drones (which tend to be more stable anyway) have algorithms to account for that?

Re: LA wildfires force thousands to evacuate, NASA JPL closed

#50

Post by Jtsummers » Wed, Jan 08, 2025, 10:36 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #41

esalman wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no air support to contain fire because of dangerously high wind. Asking for drones now is like a dumb person's idea of cheap science fiction.

I think they’re talking about dousing when it first lights. That isn’t “a dumb person’s idea.” But it is presently beyond our capabilities, to say nothing of the huge privacy problem it would entail.

They're talking about both detecting and dousing. Note they mention two different kinds of drones (a few monitor drones, and then a fleet of drones to deploy and douse). The monitor drones could be practical, we've demonstrated that loitering sensor drones work well in other domains.

Depending on the sensor payload (what it's looking for) and how the data is stored and used, it wouldn't really entail a huge privacy problem unless you show up on IR sensors as well as a fire.