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Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

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Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#141

Post by neltnerb »

pakitan wrote: post #87

ChatGPT has one trade that is guaranteed to be bad. I'm not saying unprofitable, just bad. GBTC is the bitcoin ETF with biggest expense ratio - 1.5%. If you want to bet on bitcoin, a better choice would be BITB (0.20%) or BTC (0.15%). Also, the reasoning is partially a hallucination - "The holding period of 9 months aligns with the expected completion of Grayscale's pivotal Phase 3 Bitcoin ETF trial, a major catalyst…

God help the regulators that need to determine if it's insider trading for the people training the LLM to know it will be biased in ways they can profit from when used in inappropriate ways like this. I suspect the answer will be that users should have known better... I am sad that some people will certainly assume it's unbiased analysis.

Hopefully the LLM trainers didn't "accidentally" bias the model in weird ways that favor their employer or themselves... two of the three recommendations are a fund for investing in bitcoin and a company using blockchain to trace chemical supply chains.

I look forward to seeing if the AIs can beat an index fund, or if they'll just invest in a thousand blockchain, NFT, and AI companies. I suspect a LLM has a high opinion of a company making AI given how many press releases they're summarizing.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#142

Post by jeremycarter »

wolfman1 wrote: post #125

Going to follow along to see how the results look in the months to come. I've been working on the same concept for the past 2y now and have our performance results here: https://trend.fi/performance

What's the technology behind this. I'm working on something myself, using a distributed actor model (setup like a graph) to create a living reactive model.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#143

Post by karmakaze »

WalterBright wrote: post #135
karmakaze wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> drawing pictures in clouds. Well phrased and it's how the stock market works, not only by technical analysts but everyone else playing: make a story in your head, place your bets, majority rules. Some even believe that's how reality works in general. Sometimes belief or need could be a factor[0]. [0] https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/news/2012/9/norwegian-f...

On a more long term basis, the stock market reflects the business reality. But in the short term, it's chaos.

The former is a belief. It always reflects the imagined realities of those investing--we assume that business reality catches up with them, and it mostly does but not always within a predictable time frame.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#144

Post by Krasnol »

sunnynagra wrote: post #116
aws-user wrote: post #91

Unfortunatly I can't subscribe to the updates "Failed to send verification email". Also, would you be willing to share what prompt are you using? Thanks!

Hey, can you try again? I ran into an API limit that should be resolved now

I just tried. I get the same.

URL looks like that: http://undefined/api/verify-email?token=.....

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#145

Post by karmakaze »

attentionmech wrote: post #108
pavlov wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT does a good job of imitating the average crypto influencer. They don’t know what they’re saying either, and 99% of crypto investors would be thrilled by the prospect of a “pivotal Phase 3 Bitcoin ETF trial” that will “drive trust value realization”. Sounds great, can’t miss out on that! The hallucinations are simply a mirror of a community that thrives on this nonsense. When nothing is real, you can’t blame t…

This made me chuckle. You made a very interesting point that if LLMs are copying hallucinations those hallucinations are not infact hallucinations.

This is the interesting part of the experiment. Since these LLMs are general and not specifically trained on historical (and current) stock prices and (business) news stories, it isn't a measure of how good they could be today.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#146

Post by sdwr »

mvdtnz wrote: post #129
attentionmech wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This made me chuckle. You made a very interesting point that if LLMs are copying hallucinations those hallucinations are not infact hallucinations.

If you believe (as many HNers do, although certainly not me) that LLMs have intelligence and awareness then you necessarily must also believe that the LLM is lying (call it hallucinating if you want).

Intelligence is a prerequisite for lying, but its foundation is morality and agency.

To lie, you have to know that you are not telling the truth, and arguably have to be able to held accountable for that action.

It's easy to babble a series of untruths, but lying requires intention, which requires an entity that can be recognized as having intentions.

I'd argue that ChatGPT's lack of a cohesive self prevents it from lying, no matter how many untruths it creates.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#147

Post by wolfman1 »

jeremycarter wrote: post #142
wolfman1 wrote: post #125

Going to follow along to see how the results look in the months to come. I've been working on the same concept for the past 2y now and have our performance results here: https://trend.fi/performance

What's the technology behind this. I'm working on something myself, using a distributed actor model (setup like a graph) to create a living reactive model.

The model is a multi-threaded Go script running on a 512-thread AMD EPYC server. It's a trend based model so it's just trying to figure out how best to measure and predict trend changes. Not day trading or HFT.

It conducts millions of simulations daily for each asset, then provides a snapshot of the top-performing results to GPT-4o for final selection.

I'm really pushing the limits of GPT-4o currently. I started testing with o1 just last week and it performs better. It's just so much more expensive.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#148

Post by attentionmech »

EliBullockPapa wrote: post #131
attentionmech wrote: post #120

Related to this but little theoretical question - If you add an intelligent predictor of market which wins over other consistently by X% - then the market will start using that information and wouldn't that make our intelligent predictor lose it's edge? More simply what i mean to ask is -> the moment market knows about your advantage, shouldn't you lose it because everyone else will use that information to balance th…

This phenomenon is called Alpha Decay. As more market participants exploit the predictor's advantage, the edge diminishes until it disappears.

thanks!

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#149

Post by attentionmech »

karmakaze wrote: post #145
attentionmech wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This made me chuckle. You made a very interesting point that if LLMs are copying hallucinations those hallucinations are not infact hallucinations.

This is the interesting part of the experiment. Since these LLMs are general and not specifically trained on historical (and current) stock prices and (business) news stories, it isn't a measure of how good they could be today.

My first through after seeing this post was that it's a real world eval. We are running out of evals lately (arc-agi test, then sudden jump on frontier math, etc). So it's good to have such real world tests which show how far we are.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#150

Post by ccheney »

Krasnol wrote: post #144
sunnynagra wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, can you try again? I ran into an API limit that should be resolved now

I just tried. I get the same. URL looks like that: http://undefined/api/verify-email?token= .....

I also received undefined.

I replaced undefined with trading.snagra.com and I see a success confirmation message

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