Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

trading.snagra.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 212 posts

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#131

Post by EliBullockPapa »

attentionmech wrote: post #120

Related to this but little theoretical question - If you add an intelligent predictor of market which wins over other consistently by X% - then the market will start using that information and wouldn't that make our intelligent predictor lose it's edge? More simply what i mean to ask is -> the moment market knows about your advantage, shouldn't you lose it because everyone else will use that information to balance th…

This phenomenon is called Alpha Decay. As more market participants exploit the predictor's advantage, the edge diminishes until it disappears.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#132

Post by wolfman1 »

magic_man wrote: post #127
wolfman1 wrote: post #125

Going to follow along to see how the results look in the months to come. I've been working on the same concept for the past 2y now and have our performance results here: https://trend.fi/performance

What brokers allow you to short crypto?

If you're US based, there is no major exchange support. BITI ETF and SETH ETF for shorting BTC and ETH.

If you're non-US: Binance.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#133

Post by gmueckl »

attentionmech wrote: post #120

Related to this but little theoretical question - If you add an intelligent predictor of market which wins over other consistently by X% - then the market will start using that information and wouldn't that make our intelligent predictor lose it's edge? More simply what i mean to ask is -> the moment market knows about your advantage, shouldn't you lose it because everyone else will use that information to balance th…

There is some very limited value in copying a successful strategy. Once enough market participants follow along, the strategy starts to fail. Markets are erratic because of that dynamic.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#135

Post by WalterBright »

karmakaze wrote: post #130
WalterBright wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I'd watch the financial news on TV, they would always bring on the "technical analyst", show a graph of the stock price, and then hand-draw some lines on it, and then spew out various technical terms for it guaranteed to impress. Me, I always regarded technical analysis as drawing pictures in clouds. If any of those analysts were worth spit, they'd be working for a hedge fund, not the network.

> drawing pictures in clouds. Well phrased and it's how the stock market works, not only by technical analysts but everyone else playing: make a story in your head, place your bets, majority rules. Some even believe that's how reality works in general. Sometimes belief or need could be a factor[0]. [0] https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/news/2012/9/norwegian-f...

On a more long term basis, the stock market reflects the business reality. But in the short term, it's chaos.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#136

Post by EliBullockPapa »

clark-kent wrote: post #89

Very interesting idea. I'm thinking about creating an AI portfolio manager (private) that invests for the long term. Some things to watch out for: - LLMs, by default, don't follow the best practices for trading or investing. Without careful constraints, they can ignore fundamental investment best practices. This is something I learned while building https://decodeinvesting.com/chat . - I see Claude bought a penny sto…

I would be very cautious about doing this with money you actually need. Even the best performing human day traders underperform the indexes over long time horizons. Why would a robot be better?

from a study in Brazil: "97% of all individuals who persisted for more than 300 days lost money. Only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage and only 0.5% earned more than the initial salary of a bank teller — all with great risk."

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3423101

If you don't want your bot to be a day trader, then just get low cost index funds.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#138

Post by miohtama »

pakitan wrote: post #87

ChatGPT has one trade that is guaranteed to be bad. I'm not saying unprofitable, just bad. GBTC is the bitcoin ETF with biggest expense ratio - 1.5%. If you want to bet on bitcoin, a better choice would be BITB (0.20%) or BTC (0.15%). Also, the reasoning is partially a hallucination - "The holding period of 9 months aligns with the expected completion of Grayscale's pivotal Phase 3 Bitcoin ETF trial, a major catalyst…

Because of Bitcoin volatility, fees are very insignificant compared to daily price movement and irrelevant in day trading.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#139

Post by BLKNSLVR »

booleandilemma wrote: post #44
knallfrosch wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is anyone doing anything else?

I've heard Nancy Pelosi has a different strategy.

Would it be possible for a competing nation state to bug the right rooms in which Nancy becomes privy to the information she (or her husband) trades on?

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#140

Post by attentionmech »

mvdtnz wrote: post #129
attentionmech wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This made me chuckle. You made a very interesting point that if LLMs are copying hallucinations those hallucinations are not infact hallucinations.

If you believe (as many HNers do, although certainly not me) that LLMs have intelligence and awareness then you necessarily must also believe that the LLM is lying (call it hallucinating if you want).

Reminds me of recent paper where they found LLMs are scheming to meet certain goals; And that is a scientific paper done by a big lab. Are you referring from that context?

Words and their historical contexts aside, systems which are based on optimization can take actions which can appear like intermediate lying to us. When deepmind used to play those atari games - the agents started cheating but that was just optimisation wasn't it? similarly when a language based agent does a optimisation, what we might perceive it as is scheming/lying.

I will start believing that LLM is self aware when a research paper from a top lab like Deepmind/Anthropic put such a paper in a peer reviewed journal. Otherwise, it's just matrix multiplication to me so far.

Post reply on HN