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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#521

Post by nightowl_games »

swiftcoder wrote: post #489
nightowl_games wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The root issue here is children not coming out to their parents. If we improve that metric, we can begin to improve all other metrics. Ie: the parent can help the child discover appropriate peer groups

The root issue is parents not being safe for kids to come out to. If you risk being chucked out on the street, or sent to a conversion camp, why the hell would you come out to a parent?

And that problem is so severe that it dwarfs all second order effects by a massive margin.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#522

Post by kertoip_1 »

In 2025:

1. Viral LLM-based game will be released, new trend emerges

2. Sora-like (AI generated) content floods Internet, significant advancements in that field

2a. Maybe a new kind of addictive video content generator is being released. Possibly for porn

3. AI generated music becomes popular and takes significant market share on Spotify (but it's going to be a music meant to play "in the background", like in supermarket)

4. Significant competitor to Google Search becomes popular. Mostly because of Internet becoming closed due to crawlers gathering data for training. Much less data available publicly, rise of "closed gardens".

5. SpaceX successfully launches payload to orbit with Starship and catches both stages.

6. Much more debris on Earth's orbit, dangerous incident in space because of that

7. VR remains a niche

8. More and more users start using voice to control their personal computers

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#523

Post by dom96 »

tremarley wrote: post #360
dom96 wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Wild prediction from me: Trump creates a US coin, everyone realises that a large government can easily create an alt coin, with enough people buying it and selling Bitcoin because it has the US government's support. Bitcoin then loses significant value and possibly becomes worthless eventually. The value of Bitcoin is only there because it…

Bitcoin has a proof of work based blockchain. The length and story of the chain is a unique experiment, unlikely to be replicated ever again in my opinion

The length and story of the chain bears no value

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#524

Post by AnimalMuppet »

sabbaticaldev wrote: post #447
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is what aguaviva said in the GP propaganda? You picked an odd comment to make that criticism.

it is a global community, not everyone here drank the western kool aid

That doesn't answer the question. What, specifically, about that specific comment was propaganda?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#525

Post by aguaviva »

AdrianB1 wrote: post #519
aguaviva wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that is an option of any sort. That's insane. Of course it's an "option". No one in these countries (outside of a very tiny portion of wackos) cares about the current borders, or dreams of starting a war to move them.

No, full occupation of Ukraine is not an option that NATO will ever accept. With the current state of Russian military and economy, it is a very easy line to draw.

Not sure how we got to this, and it seems I may have misread you.

All apologies.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#526

Post by smileysteve »

devops000 wrote: post #231

- Corporate will realize the AI is amazing for demo but doesn’t work for production. - BTC/Tech crash

There are many 1 off use cases where LLM free versions look great, but when you invest to make a system of it (engineers/time/model servers), and then consider pricing, and realize most early adopters would rather use their custom contexts that they get for 1 off pricing (or free)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#527

Post by AnimalMuppet »

throw0101d wrote: post #431
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> After >40 years, gold has only just gotten back to its 1980s inflation-adjusted price If you look at the absolute peak of its price for the last 100 years, it took 40 years to get back to it. Yeah, so? Absolute peaks are like that. If you don't cherry-pick the year, the gold price right now is looking good compared to the past. (Though an honest reading of that chart would lead one to suspect that we might be near…

> If you don't cherry-pick the year, the gold price right now is looking good compared to the past. Then there's the near-decade drought between 2011 and 2019, and the multi-year drought between 2021 and 2024. Meanwhile, if instead of having cash tied up in gold one had invested in an index fund (total market or even S&P 500), it'd be getting both price appreciation and dividends. Even the so-called S&P 500 lost deca…

Your original claim was "retain value". I think that was good wording - gold isn't a "make money" asset; it's a "don't lose it all" asset.

Comparing its investment performance to TIPS is therefore moving the goalposts from "retains value" to "grows fast". (Or am I taking the words in your first post as being more precise than they were intended?)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#528

Post by voxl »

WheelsAtLarge wrote: post #67

1) Companies will develop many specialized LLMs linked via a router-like app that determines the best LLM to perform your request. This will yield better results without requiring an AGI. It might even be good enough to replace a specialized information tech job. 2) The cost of a line of code will continue to drop. A Moore's like law is coming/here for code. 3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in t…

Don't worry, if you believe in your AI magic so much just have it to teach you the concepts of the trade. The snark is because I think the AI hype is insanity and have lost respect for anyone who "claims" to actually use it. I try every. single. time. To replicate anyone's claimed success, and EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. I see the AI being obviously worse than a Google search.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#529

Post by thimabi »

doku wrote: post #271

90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that…

> 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text

Are you sure you meant this as a prediction for 2025? It has been months, if not years, since search engines have been inundated by LLM articles.

The pursuit of advertising dollars has even made many long-tail queries worthless. Results often are a pile of AI-generated spam sprinkled with display ads and biased affiliate links. Ad blockers can deal with some of that, but there remains the problem of not finding appropriate results to many search queries.

This has been the sad state of the web for quite some time, and it’s just going to worsen.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#530

Post by rawgabbit »

1) Microsoft releases a version of Minecraft with AI enabled NPC characters. Within 24 hours, hackers figured out how to make blocky AI girlfriends for ten year old boys. Seizing on the trend, Microsoft ditches Azure & Office and becomes a digital girlfriend company. Nadella celebrates by swimming in a pool full of cash.

2) OpenAI tells Microsoft that digital girlfriends violate their terms of service. Instead of AI girlfriends, they are renamed as virtual copilots with benefits.

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