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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#271

Post by doku »

90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled.

90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM.

90% CL: AI with tool use that has access to physics simulator and CAD software will automatically advances efficent engine design.

70% CL: Million dollar prompt run on million dollar math prize. Millennium Prize Problems

40% CL: AI sucessfully held back invasive species encrochment with lessons from AI war machines

30% CL: Cheap AI nose sniffs out many common diseases. Automatic data analysis of Gas Chromatography and spectroscopy readings on patients' VOC(volatile organic compounds) produces fast and cheap diagnosis.

10% CL: Not next year, Cost of renewable electricity in remote area becomes cheap enough to pull oxygen from air or electrosis from water to be sold as commodity. Or other processes to package solar energy for trade.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#272

Post by swiftcoder »

CubsFan1060 wrote: post #11

There are even more restrictions aimed at stopping kids using social media. Restrictions on phone use in schools, who can sign up for social media, etc.. Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids. On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significan…

> with significant benefit to kids

Straight kids from stable homes, perhaps. For LGBT kids, or kids in abusive homes, it's the end of a significant lifeline.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#274

Post by Yoric »

standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k.

Eh, I was expecting the opposite, with people flocking it to bitcoin (or some other crypto) as a backup strategy in case of political/ecological instability.

What makes you think that there will be a major correction?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#275

Post by alibarber »

nozzlegear wrote: post #74

I predict that I will finally finish making that bird feeder camera that I've been wanting to make for my wife. I've got all the parts for it, I just need to figure out how to put them together and write some code to take a picture of a bird. Can't be too hard, right?

Hmm - but you can't just have it take a picture of the bird!

It needs to alert you to the presence of the bird - what's the latest and best practice in notifications nowadays?

And ID the bird too - what's a good API for image based AI? Might be expensive, better run it locally, how do we set up a sever for that? No, not server, serverless!

What are the legal implications of running an AI based autonomous camera service outside in your locale? Better research that...

.... Yeah, I've ended up going down a lot of rabbit holes on my own little projects, but that's part of the fun I guess. ;)

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#276

Post by type0 »

rahmansahinler1 wrote: post #257
huijzer wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

United states mainly provides quality weapons to the Ukraine which EU does not have. EU provides humanitarian aid. Which is also important but without American help Ukraine will lose the war against Russia

And a lot of European weapon systems have US components, so if Americans want they can certainly freeze and prohibit supply of military aid to the point where it won't be sustainable to resist Russian assaults.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#278

Post by nobrains »

standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

>> Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k.

This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends.

Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends.

And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happening by the virtue of everyone's expectation.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#279

Post by klysm »

kingnothing wrote: post #59

US enters recession in Q1 2025. There's no "soft landing". The correlation between federal interest rate cuts and recessions perfectly predicts this.

Suppose the correlation was this simple and reliable, why don’t the markets already reflect it?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#280

Post by Lionga »

doku wrote: post #271

90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that…

can i have some of what you have been smoking?
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