https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1tDzUTGyjnBSAJbID... Massive repo of all Trends for 2025
Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
301–310 of 620 posts
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#302-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…
>> Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends. Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happen…
Only 4 data points.
There are meaningful differences this time around: Trump support of Bitcoin lobby and mainstream ETFs.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#303- (90%) US accelerated inflation - (75%) US marked increase in military-industrial complex spending, perhaps $800B/y - (70%) US hollows-out functional regulators necessary for safety, growth, and industry - (65%) US recession spring-summer 2025 - (50%) US major cyberattack crippling infrastructure - (45%) US austerity cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security
Most of this is the president elect's manifesto.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#304Google and AI companies will continue to plunder the web. Websites - especially small independent ones - will see further traffic losses to AI summaries of their content.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#305Earlier quoted context omitted.
In Brazil we have a famous saying, not related to wars but football, "já combinou com os Russos?" or in literal translation, "Did you already check with the Russians?".
What is the meaning of this term? I am not native english speaker
Even as a native English speaker, I only understand the literal meaning, not how it (or the original) would apply here.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#306Earlier quoted context omitted.
Crypto moves with financial liquidity. If the stock market falls, so does crypto. Gold is for investment diversity not crypto.
Why not? Because crypto is somehow easier to buy/liquidate than gold?
Gold will always retain value. Stocks and crypto can fall to 0. It is the only asset that has retained high value for thousands of years.
When the future in uncertain (like start of a war/pandemic), gold is a safe heaven. Stocks and crypto get obliterated in panics.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#30790% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that…
> Cost of renewable electricity in remote area becomes cheap enough to pull oxygen from air or electrosis from water to be sold as commodity
Oxygen is already kind of a commodity. Did you mean hydrogen? Anyway, this isn't going to happen, look at retail power prices.
> Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM.
I'm not sure in what sense SEO is "solved" here, but this basically puts the Internet into a nasty local minimum where it's kind of good enough for information you don't care about, but will feed you wrong information often enough to cause problems, while having stripped all the traditional reliability signals. Possibly also kills what's left of fact-based journalism.
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#308Earlier quoted context omitted.
See this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42493130 Reposting: This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends. Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happening by the…
Fair enough, but this doesn't sound like a major correction, does it?
70% is the end of the world for traditional stocks, not a "correction"!
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#309I'm going to get older and gain weight.
aidenn0 goes to gym, buys a 10 day pass, and starts using the machines on the lowest weight after watching a series of Youtube videos on how to safely use the equipment. After increase the weight every few weeks because it has become too easy, aidenn0 has washboard abs that get shown off at the beach or pool in summer 2025. lol
He will still get older, and could gain (muscle) weight!
Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
#310AI Investments will slow down. A bit out there but I will go on a limb :)
Everyone seems overly optimistic about AI in 2025. I onboard with a slowdown. It's to expensive for to little results (financially).
2025 might be a bit to early, but I think we will see a medium size backlash against AI and at least a certain segment of people will start to actively avoid LLMs and seek out alternatives. Some companies will find a niche in "Never talk to an AI/don't let computers solve human problems" and will be able to charge a premium.
2025 could however be the first year we see the first high profile AI companies close their doors. I think OpenAI is high on the list of companies that will in some sense fail. The brand is huge, but they are burning way to much cash, so they'll probably be rolled into Microsoft and their technology will live on inside SharePoint, VSCode and Outlook. Again, next year is a little early, but I'm still on a 25% chance of OpenAI being swallowed up by Microsoft.