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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#291

Post by defrost »

doku wrote: post #271

90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that…

Renewable energy has been the cheaper option in remote areas for a while now, solar demand in Pakistan has skyrocted recently.

Solar powered water pumps and water purification has been a commodity and charity item since 2023 (that I recall) eg:

https://nrsp.org.pk/hand-operated-and-solar-powered-portable...

https://www.bondheshams.org/

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#292

Post by Yoric »

nobrains wrote: post #281
Yoric wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Eh, I was expecting the opposite, with people flocking it to bitcoin (or some other crypto) as a backup strategy in case of political/ecological instability. What makes you think that there will be a major correction?

See this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42493130 Reposting: This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends. Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happening by the…

Fair enough, but this doesn't sound like a major correction, does it?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#293

Post by type0 »

meiraleal wrote: post #237
mongol wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine will not cede land to Russia. What is likely though is a frozen conflict along the conflict lines.

In Brazil we have a famous saying, not related to wars but football, "já combinou com os Russos?" or in literal translation, "Did you already check with the Russians?".

Since it's about football you no longer have to "check with the Russians", they're banned from all major competitions. One major misnomer is referring to Soviet citizens as Russians, the majority of USSR population weren't Russians but other ethnicities. Wikipedia has a bunch of this history falsehoods specially when talking about Red Army brigades consisting entirely of other ethnic minorities and referring to them as Russians. Actually calling Canadians- Americans is more correct, at least it's technically correct which is best kind of correct.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#294

Post by Yoric »

3D30497420 wrote: post #285
pancakemouse wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will there be any conflict between Musk's supposed eco-credentials and Trump's ambitions to destroy everything green?

It seems to me that Musk's eco-credentials have been long largely abandoned, assuming he every really had them to begin with. I get the sense that they were only ever useful to help sell cars and support his ego-trip (make him seem a "visionary"). None of his other projects are particularly eco-friendly (a tunnel, but just for cars, big rockets, autonomous cars rather than larger scale transit, etc.) I think the more…

My feeling is that, while the rest of Big Tech is busy kissing Trump's ring at Mar-a-Lago, Musk is something between Trump's consigliere and Trump's owner.

I also don't think that it's going to end well for them, but it might last a while. Also, Trump is pretty old, so it's entirely possible that he'll die before they have a falling out.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#295

Post by Yoric »

Teever wrote: post #235
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

I wonder if the next CEO will be shot or taken down by drone. I think it's very likely that in 2025 we will see the first North American assassination by drone.

!remindme 1 year (oops, we're not on reddit)

Very interesting prediction! I wouldn't be surprised.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#296

Post by Yoric »

rapsey wrote: post #289
Yoric wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Eh, I was expecting the opposite, with people flocking it to bitcoin (or some other crypto) as a backup strategy in case of political/ecological instability. What makes you think that there will be a major correction?

Crypto moves with financial liquidity. If the stock market falls, so does crypto. Gold is for investment diversity not crypto.

Why not? Because crypto is somehow easier to buy/liquidate than gold?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#297

Post by commanche3 »

rahmansahinler1 wrote: post #257
huijzer wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

United states mainly provides quality weapons to the Ukraine which EU does not have. EU provides humanitarian aid. Which is also important but without American help Ukraine will lose the war against Russia

[dead]

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#298

Post by nindalf »

swiftcoder wrote: post #272
CubsFan1060 wrote: post #11

There are even more restrictions aimed at stopping kids using social media. Restrictions on phone use in schools, who can sign up for social media, etc.. Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids. On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significan…

> with significant benefit to kids Straight kids from stable homes, perhaps. For LGBT kids, or kids in abusive homes, it's the end of a significant lifeline.

It's interesting yet saddening to play out the consequences along the path you've outlined. LGBT kids, by definition a 2-4% minority, are unlikely to find other people like themselves. They remain closeted for longer, trying and failing to conform. Their struggle will be unfortunate, but also not measurable.

What will be measurable is the % of youth who identify as LGBT, which will be lower because more of them would be closeted. That'll be a win for people who want to "protect kids from LGBT ideology".

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#299

Post by netdevphoenix »

paul7986 wrote: post #168
bmcahren wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll bandwagon on chat.com getting 10% or higher marketshare. Look back at Google search's 800 number; https://techcrunch.com/2013/05/12/google-kills-sms-search/ (the only article I could find). We're at that stage of chat.com going mainstream. Already chat.com is a better experience for finding local shops and restaurants. ChatGPT voice mode was surgically amazing while driving. I had a personal assistant refining c…

I think Open AI will release a GPT phone and the UX is built around your phone being your personal AI assistant. When you pick it up it's like you are always on a Facetime call with your AI personal assistant. You can skin your AI personal assistant how they look .. to look like a celebrity to a deceased friend or relative whose always there to help & guide you through your day (get things done for you, your knowlegd…

Calling a technology boring is such an odd thing. Is a screwdriver boring and stale? Are microwaves boring and stale? The expectation of getting regular dopamine rushes from new smartphone features is not healthy

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#300

Post by mrweasel »

rahmansahinler1 wrote: post #257
huijzer wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Rus…

United states mainly provides quality weapons to the Ukraine which EU does not have. EU provides humanitarian aid. Which is also important but without American help Ukraine will lose the war against Russia

I'm optimistic in the sense that I believe that if the EU offered to pay for the weapons, then the Trump government won't mind supplying them. The issue is that it would be difficult for the EU to reach an internal agreement.
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