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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#281

Post by nobrains »

Yoric wrote: post #274
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Eh, I was expecting the opposite, with people flocking it to bitcoin (or some other crypto) as a backup strategy in case of political/ecological instability. What makes you think that there will be a major correction?

See this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42493130

Reposting:

This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends.

Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends.

And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happening by the virtue of everyone's expectation.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#282

Post by qznc »

doku wrote: post #271

90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that…

I don’t think global temperatures get another record because El Niño is over. Your „weather“ suggests a more local reference though?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#285

Post by 3D30497420 »

pancakemouse wrote: post #265
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

Will there be any conflict between Musk's supposed eco-credentials and Trump's ambitions to destroy everything green?

It seems to me that Musk's eco-credentials have been long largely abandoned, assuming he every really had them to begin with. I get the sense that they were only ever useful to help sell cars and support his ego-trip (make him seem a "visionary"). None of his other projects are particularly eco-friendly (a tunnel, but just for cars, big rockets, autonomous cars rather than larger scale transit, etc.)

I think the more likely reason Musk and Trump will fall-out of... whatever it is they have... is they both have huge egos and don't like sharing the spotlight.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#286

Post by lizzas »

Yoric wrote: post #274
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Eh, I was expecting the opposite, with people flocking it to bitcoin (or some other crypto) as a backup strategy in case of political/ecological instability. What makes you think that there will be a major correction?

You need a constant supply of new bag holders, but miners need to be paid.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#288

Post by lizzas »

standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

Crypto correction on 21st Jan is my prediction.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

#289

Post by rapsey »

Yoric wrote: post #274
standeven wrote: post #154

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well u…

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Eh, I was expecting the opposite, with people flocking it to bitcoin (or some other crypto) as a backup strategy in case of political/ecological instability. What makes you think that there will be a major correction?

Crypto moves with financial liquidity. If the stock market falls, so does crypto. Gold is for investment diversity not crypto.
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