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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#451
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ChatGPT (as far as I can tell) is no closer to being accountable or responsible for anything it produces. What does it even mean? How do you imagine that? You want OpenAI to take on liability for the kicks of it?

If an LLM can't be left to do mowing by itself, but a human will have to closely monitor and intervene at every its steps, then it's just a super fast predictive keyboard, no?

But what if the human only has to intervene once every 100 hours, that’s a huge productivity boost.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#453

What we can reasonably assume from statements made by insiders: They want a 10x improvement from scaling and a 10x improvement from data and algorithmic changes The sources of public data are essentially tapped Algorithmic changes will be an unknown to us until they release, but from published research this remains a steady source of improvement Scaling seems to stall if data is limited So with all of that taken toge…

I completely don't understand the use for synthetic data. What good it's it to train a model basically on itself?

If we get to a point where we have a model that when fed a real world stream of data (YouTube, surveillance cameras, forum data, cell phone conversations etc.) and can prune out a good training set for itself then you’re at the point where the LLM is in a feedback loop where it can improve itself. That’s AGI for all intents and purposes.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#454

"Orion’s problems signaled to some at OpenAI that the more-is-more strategy, which had driven much of its earlier success, was running out of steam." So LLMs finally hit the wall. For a long time, more data, bigger models, and more compute to drive them worked. But that's apparently not enough any more. Now someone has to have a new idea. There's plenty of money available if someone has one. The current level of LLM…

the new idea is the o series and clearly OpenAI’s main focus now. It’s advancing much faster than the GPT series

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#455

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Curious about the AI research tool you mentioned, would you mind sharing it? Been trying to get a good local research setup with Ollama but still figuring out what works best.

Not OP, but based on their mention of Ollama, I can tell you that it has built in search tools, all you need to do is supply an API to one of the tools, or even run one of the search tools locally using docker.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the difference comes down to interacting with it like IDE autocomplete vs. interacting with it like a colleague. It sounds like you're doing the former -- and yeah, it can make mistakes that autocomplete wouldn't or generate code that's wrong or overly complex. On the other hand, I've found that if you treat it more like a colleague, it works wonderfully. Ask it to do something, then read the code and ask fol…

I'm in the same boat as the person you're responding to. I really don't understand how to get anything helpful out of ChatGPT, or more than anything basic out of Claude. > I've found that if you treat it more like a colleague, it works wonderfully. This is what I've been trying to do. I don't use LLM code completion tools. I'll ask anything from how to do something "basicish" with html & css, and it'll always output…

My approach is a lot of writing out ideas and giving them to ChatGPT. ChatGPT sometimes nods along, sometimes offers bad or meaningless suggestions, sometimes offers good suggestions, sometimes points out (what should have been) obvious errors or mistakes. The process of writing stuff out is useful anyway and sometimes getting good feedback on it is even better.

When coding I will often find myself in kind of a reverse pattern from how people seem to be using ChatGPT. I work in a jupyter notebook in a haphazard way getting things to functional and basically correct, after this I select all, copy, paste, and ask ChatGPT to refactor and refine to something more maintainable. My janky blocks of code and one offs become well documented scripts and functions.

I find a lot of people do the opposite, where they ask ChatGPT to start, then get frustrated when ChatGPT only goes 70% of the way and it's difficult to complete the imperfectly understood assignment - harder than doing it all yourself. With my method, where I start and get things basically working, ChatGPT knows what I'm going for, I get to do the part of coding I enjoy, and I wind up with something more durable, reusable, and shareable.

Finally, ChatGPT is wonderful in areas where you don't know very much at all. One example, I've got this idea in my head for a product I'll likely never build - but it's fun to plan out.

My idea is roughly a smart bidet that can detect metabolites in urine. I got this idea when a urinalysis showed I had high levels of ketones in my urine. When I was reading about what that meant I discovered it's a marker for diabetic ketoacidosis (a severe problem for ~100k people a year) and it can also be indicator for colorectal cancer as well as indicating a "ketosis" state that some people intentionally try to enter for dieting or wellness reasons. (My own ketones were caused by unintentionally being in ketosis, I'm fine, thanks for wondering.)

Right now, you detect ketones in urine with a strip that you pee on, and that works well enough - but it could be better because who wants to use a test strip all the time? Enter the smart bidet. The bidet gives us an excuse to connect power to our device and bring the sensor along. Bluetooth detects a nearby phone (and therefore identity of the depositor), a motion sensor can detect a stream of urine triggering our detection, and then use our sensor to detect ketones which we track overtime in the app, ideally with additional metabolites that have useful diagnostic purposes.

How to detect ketones? Is it even possible? I wonder to ChatGPT if spectroscopy is the right method of detection here. ChatGPT suggests a retractable electrochemical probe similar to an extant product that can detect a kind of ketone in blood. ChatGPT knows what kind of ketone is most detectable in urine. ChatGPT can link me to scientific instrument companies that make similar (ish) probes where I could contact them and ask if they sold this type of thing, and so on.

Basically, I go from peeing on a test strip and wondering if I could automate this to chat with ChatGPT - having, what was in my opinion, an interesting conversation with the LLM, where we worked through what ketones are, the different kinds, the prevalence of ketones in different bodily fluids, types of spectroscopy that might detect acetoacetate (available in urine) and how much that would cost and what challenges would be and so on, followed by the idea of electrochemical probes and how retracting and extending the probe might prolong its lifespan and maybe a heating element could be added to dry the probe to preserve it even better and so on.

Was ChatGPT right about all that? I don't know. If I were really interested I would try to validate what it said, and I suspect I would find it was mostly right and incomplete or off in places. Basically like having a pretty smart and really knowledgeable friend who is not infallible.

Without ChatGPT I would have likely thought "I wonder if I can automate this", maybe googled for some tracking product, then forgot about it. With ChatGPT I quickly got a much better understanding of a system that I glancingly came into conscious contact with.

It's not hard to project out that level of improved insight and guess that it will lead to valuable life contributions. In fact, I would say it did in that one example alone.

The urinalysis (which was combined with a blood test) said something like "ketones +3" and if you google "urine ketones +3" you get a explanations that don't apply to me (alcohol, vigorous exercise, intentional dieting) or "diabetic ketoacidosis" which google warns you is a serious health condition.

In the follow up with the doctor I asked about the ketones. The doctor said "Oh, you were probably just dehydrated, don't worry about it, you don't have diabetic ketoacidosis" and the conversation moved on and soon concluded. In the moment I was just relieved there was an innocent explanation. But, as I thought about it, shouldn't other results in the blood or urine test indicate dehydration? I asked ChatGPT (and confirmed on Google) and sure enough there were 3 other signals that should have been there if I was dehydrated that were not there.

"What does this mean?" I wondered to ChatGPT. ChatGPT basically told me it was probably nothing, but if I was worried I could do an at home test - which I didn't even know existed (though I could have found through carefully reading the first google result). So I go to Target and get an at home test kit (bottle of test strips), 24 gatorades, and a couple liters of pedialyte to ensure I'm well hydrated.

I start drinking my usual 64 ounces of water a day, plus lots of gatorade and pedialyte and over a couple days I remain at high ketones in urine. Definitely not dehydrated. Consulting with ChatGPT I start telling it everything I'm eating and it points out that I'm just accidentally in a ketogenic diet. ChatGPT suggests some simple carbs for me, I start eating those, and the ketone content of my urine falls off in roughly the exact timeframe that ChatGPT predicted (i.e. it told me if you eat this meal you should see ketones decline in ~4 hours).

Now, in some sense this didn't really matter. If I had simply listened to my doctor's explanation I would've been fine. Wrong, but fine. It wasn't dehydration, it was just accidentally being in a ketogenic diet. But, I take all this as evidence of how ChatGPT now, as it exists, helped me to understand my test results in a way that real doctors weren't able to - partially because ChatGPT exists in a form where I can just ping it with whatever stray thoughts come to mind and it will answer instantly. I'm sure if I could just text my doctor those same thoughts we would've come to the same conclusion.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#457

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Same here.

The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me.

It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night.

And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off points to then start googling specific terms, people, laws, treaties, etc to dig deeper and verify.

Last year during a visit to my first Indian reservation, I had a whole bunch of questions that nobody in person had answers to. And ChatGPT was invaluable in understanding concepts like where a reservation’s autonomy begins and ends. And why certain tribes are richer than others. What happens when someone calls 911 on a reservation. Or speeds. Or wants to start a factory without worrying about import/export rules. And what causes some tribes to lose their language faster than others. And 20 other questions like this.

And most of those resulted in google searches to verify the information. But I literally could never do this before.

Same this year when I’m visiting family in India. To learn about the politics, the major players, WHY they are considered major players (like the Chief Minister of Bengal or Uttar Pradesh or Maharashtra being major players because of their populations and economies). Criticisms, explanations of laws, etc etc.

For insanely curious people who often feel unsatisfied with the answers given by those around them, it’s the greatest thing ever.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#458

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

At this point I think even the most bearish have to concede that LLM's are an amazing tool. But OpenAI was never supposed to be about creating tools. They're supposed to create something that can completely take over entire projects for you, not just something that can help you work on the projects faster. If they can't pull that off in the next year or two, they're gonna seriously struggle to raise the next 10B they'll need to keep the lights on.

Of course LLMs aren't going anywhere, but I do not envy Sam Altman right now.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#459

I want AI to help me in the physical world: folding my laundry, cooking and farming healthy food, cleaning toilets. Training data is not lying around on the internet for free, but it's also not impossible. How much data do you need? A dozen warehouses full of robots folding and unfolding laundry 24/7 for a few months?

Laundry folding is an instructive example. Machines have been capable of home-scale laundry folding for over a decade, with two companies Foldimate and Laundroid building functional prototypes. The challenge is making it cost-competitive in a world where most people don't even purchase a $10 folding board. I would guess that most cooking and cleaning tasks are in basically the same space. You don't need fine motor co…

Interesting - I would think the neighborhood laundromat offering wash/fold service could invest in a laundry folding robot.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#460
post #445

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Let's revisit this comment in one year – after the explosion of agentic systems. (:

We already have agentic systems; they're not particularly impressive (1).

There's no specific reason to expect them to get better.

Things that will shift the status quo are: MCST-LLMs (like with ARC-AGI) and Much Bigger LLMs (like GPT-5, if they ever turn up) or some completely novel architecture.

[1] - It's provable; if just chaining LLMs are a particular size into agentic systems could scale indefinitely, then you could use a 1-param LLM and get AGI. You can't. QED. Chaining LLMs with agentic systems has a capped maximum level of function which we basically already see with the current LLMs.

ie. Adding 'agentic' to your system has a finite, probably already reached, upper bound of value.

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