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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#441

Post by lazygoose »

SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Curious about the AI research tool you mentioned, would you mind sharing it? Been trying to get a good local research setup with Ollama but still figuring out what works best.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#442

Post by kmoser »

dartos wrote: post #385
foolfoolz wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI will arrive like self driving cars. it’s not that you will wake up one day and we have it. cars gained auto-braking, parallel parking, cruise control assist. and over a long time you get to something like waymo, which still is location dependent. i think AGI will take decades but sooner will be some special cases that are effectively the same

I don’t think that’s true for AGI. AGI is the holy grail of technology. A technology so advanced that not only does it subsume all other technology, but it is able to improve itself. Truly general intelligence like that will either exist or not. And the instant it becomes public, the world will have changed overnight (maybe the span of a year) Note: I don’t think statistical models like these will get us there.

> A technology so advanced that not only does it subsume all other technology, but it is able to improve itself.

The problem is, a computer has no idea what "improve" means unless a human explains it for every type of problem. And of course a human will have to provide guidelines about how long to think about the problem overall, which avenues to avoid because they aren't relevant to a particular case, etc. In other words, humans will never be able to stray too far from the training process.

We will likely never get to the point where an AGI can continuously improve the quality of its answers for all domains. The best we'll get, I believe, is an AGI that can optimize itself within a few narrow problem domains, which will have limited commercial application. We may make slow progress in more complex domains, but the quality of results--and the ability for the AGI to self-improve--will always level off asymptotically.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#443

Post by ferminaut »

SamPatt wrote: post #432
ferminaut wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

vscode + cline extension + gemini2.0 is pretty awesome. Highly recommend checking out cline. it quickly became one of my favorite coding tools.

I will check it out. The number of new tools is staggering. I enjoy image and video generation and I have a 4090 and ComfyUI; I can't keep up with everything coming out anymore.

If you're a offline kind of guy, try LM Studio + Cline :)

/not affiliated with cline, just a happy user

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#444

Post by IAmGraydon »

SamPatt wrote: post #432
ferminaut wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

vscode + cline extension + gemini2.0 is pretty awesome. Highly recommend checking out cline. it quickly became one of my favorite coding tools.

I will check it out. The number of new tools is staggering. I enjoy image and video generation and I have a 4090 and ComfyUI; I can't keep up with everything coming out anymore.

If you're interested in the latest tools for coding, join this subreddit and you'll always be on top of it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPTCoding/

There are a lot of tools, but only a small pool of tools that are worth checking out. Cline, Continue, Windsurf, CoPilot, Cursor, and Aider are the ones that come to mind.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#445

Post by divan »

SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

Let's revisit this comment in one year – after the explosion of agentic systems. (:

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#446

Post by Majromax »

noman-land wrote: post #69
ericskiff wrote: post #25

What we can reasonably assume from statements made by insiders: They want a 10x improvement from scaling and a 10x improvement from data and algorithmic changes The sources of public data are essentially tapped Algorithmic changes will be an unknown to us until they release, but from published research this remains a steady source of improvement Scaling seems to stall if data is limited So with all of that taken toge…

I completely don't understand the use for synthetic data. What good it's it to train a model basically on itself?

> What good it's it to train a model basically on itself?

If the model generates data of variable quality, and if there's a good way to distinguish good data from bad data, then training on self-generated data might "bootstrap" a model to better performance.

This is common in reinforcement learning. Famously, AlphaGo Zero (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaGo_Zero) learned exclusively on self-play, without reference to human-played games.

Of course, games have a built-in critic: the better strategy usually wins. It's much harder to judge the answer to a math problem, or decide which essay is more persuasive, or evaluate restaurant recommendations.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#447

Post by Syonyk »

keenmaster wrote: post #419
wongarsu wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea of the singularity presumes that running the AGI is either free or trivially cheap compared to what it can do, so we are fine expending compute to let the AGI improve itself. That may eventually be true, but it's unlikely to be true for the first generation of AGI. The first AGI will be a research project that's completely uneconomical to run for actual tasks because humans will just be orders of magnitude c…

If the first AGI is a very uneconomical system with human intelligence but knowledge of literally everything and the capability to work 24/7, then it is not human equivalent. It will have human intelligence, superhuman knowledge, superhuman stamina, and complete devotion to the task at hand. We really need to start building those nuclear power plants. Many of them.

> It will have human intelligence, superhuman knowledge, superhuman stamina, and complete devotion to the task at hand.

Orrrr..., as an alternative, it might discover the game 2048 and be totally useless for days on end.

Reality is under no obligation to grant your wishes.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#448

Post by arthurcolle »

eru wrote: post #425
arthurcolle wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agents can trivially self improve. I'd be happy to show you - contact me at arthur@distributed.systems Why wouldn't you hand me 35 million dollars right now if I can clearly illustrate to you that I have technology you haven't seen? Edge. Maybe you know something I don't, or maybe you just haven't seen it. While loops go hard ;) They don't need to release their internal developments to you to show that they can scale…

Perhaps you should pitch that to a VC?

I don't know anyone. That would be cool though, I basically have it running already.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#449

Post by cma »

t_serpico wrote: post #208

One fundamental challenge to me is that if each training run because more and more expensive, the time it takes it to learn what works/doesn't work widens. Half a billion dollars for training a model is already nuts, but if it takes 100 iterations to perfect it, you've cumulatively spent 50 billion dollars... Smaller models may actually be where rapid innovation continues simply because of tighter feedback loops. O3…

>the time it takes it to learn what works/doesn't work widens.

From the raw scaling laws we already knew that a new base model may peter out in this run or the next with some amount of uncertainty--"the intersection point is sensitive to the precise power-law parameters":

https://gwern.net/doc/ai/nn/transformer/gpt/2020-kaplan-figu...

Later graph gpt-3 got to here:

https://gwern.net/doc/ai/nn/transformer/gpt/2020-brown-figur...

https://gwern.net/scaling-hypothesis

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#450

Post by deadmutex »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #444
SamPatt wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will check it out. The number of new tools is staggering. I enjoy image and video generation and I have a 4090 and ComfyUI; I can't keep up with everything coming out anymore.

If you're interested in the latest tools for coding, join this subreddit and you'll always be on top of it: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPTCoding/ There are a lot of tools, but only a small pool of tools that are worth checking out. Cline, Continue, Windsurf, CoPilot, Cursor, and Aider are the ones that come to mind.

"ChatGPT" Coding... is it impartial? the name sorta sounds biased.
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