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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#431

Post by marcus_holmes »

eru wrote: post #413
marcus_holmes wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Singularity is caused by AI being able to design better AI. There's probably some AI startup trying to work on this at the moment, but I don't think any of the big boys are working on how to get an LLM to design a better LLM. I still like the analogy of this being a really smart lawn mower, and we're expecting it to suddenly be able to do the laundry because it gets so smart at mowing the lawn. I think LLMs are g…

> The Singularity is caused by AI being able to design better AI. That's perhaps necessary, but not sufficient. Suppose you have such a self-improving AI system, but the new and better AIs still need exponentially more and more resources (data, memory, compute) for training and inference for incremental gains. Then you still don't get a singularity. If the increase in resource usage is steep enough, even the new AIs…

yeah, true. The standard conversation about the AI singularity pretty much hand-waves the resource costs away ("the AI will be able to design a more efficient AI that uses less resources!"). But we are definitely not seeing that happen.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#432

Post by SamPatt »

ferminaut wrote: post #430
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

vscode + cline extension + gemini2.0 is pretty awesome. Highly recommend checking out cline. it quickly became one of my favorite coding tools.

I will check it out. The number of new tools is staggering.

I enjoy image and video generation and I have a 4090 and ComfyUI; I can't keep up with everything coming out anymore.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#433

Post by IAmGraydon »

ferminaut wrote: post #430
SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

vscode + cline extension + gemini2.0 is pretty awesome. Highly recommend checking out cline. it quickly became one of my favorite coding tools.

Gemini 2.0 isn't particularly great at coding. The Gemini 1206 preview that was released just before 2.0 is quite good, though. Still, it hasn't taken the crown from Claude 3.5 Sonnet (which appears to now be tied with o1). Very much agree about Cline + VSCode, BTW. My preferred models with Cline are 3.5 Sonnet and 3.5 Haiku. I can throw the more complex problems at Sonnet and use Haiku for everything else.

https://aider.chat/docs/leaderboards/edit.html

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#434

Post by 015a »

foolfoolz wrote: post #294
missedthecue wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

AGI will arrive like self driving cars. it’s not that you will wake up one day and we have it. cars gained auto-braking, parallel parking, cruise control assist. and over a long time you get to something like waymo, which still is location dependent. i think AGI will take decades but sooner will be some special cases that are effectively the same

I feel that one challenge this comparison space has is: Self-driving cars haven't made the leap yet to replace humans. In other words, saying AGI will arrive like self-driving cars have arrived is incorrectly concluding that self-driving cars have arrived, and thus it instead (maybe correctly, maybe not) asserts that, actually, neither will arrive.

This is especially concerning because many top minds in the industry have stated with high confidence that artificial intelligence will experience an intelligence "explosion", and we should be afraid of this (or, maybe, welcome it with open arms, depending on who you ask). So, actually, what we're being told to expect is being downgraded from "it'll happen quickly" to "it will happen slowly" to, as you say, "it'll happen similarly to how these other domains of computerized intelligence have replaced humans, which is to say, they haven't yet".

Point being: We've observed these systems ride a curve, and the linear extrapolation of that curve does seem to arrive, eventually, at human-replacing intelligence. But, what if it... doesn't? What if that curve is really an asymptote?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#435

Post by marcus_holmes »

EGreg wrote: post #344
marcus_holmes wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Singularity is caused by AI being able to design better AI. There's probably some AI startup trying to work on this at the moment, but I don't think any of the big boys are working on how to get an LLM to design a better LLM. I still like the analogy of this being a really smart lawn mower, and we're expecting it to suddenly be able to do the laundry because it gets so smart at mowing the lawn. I think LLMs are g…

I think this whole “AGI” thing is so badly defined that we may as well say we already have it. It already passes the Turing test and does well on tons of subjects. What we can start to build now is agents and integrations. Building blocks like panel of experts agents gaming things out, exploring space in a Monte Carlo Tree Search way, and remembering what works. Robots are only constrained by mechanical servos now. W…

Well, kinda, but if you built a robot to efficiently mow lawns, it's still not going to be able to do the laundry.

I don't see how "when they can do something, they'll be able to do everything" can be true. We build robots that are specialised at specific roles, because it's massively more efficient to do that. A car-welding robot can weld cars together at a rate that a human can't match.

We could train an LLM to drive a Boston Dynamics kind of anthropomorphic robot to weld cars, but it will be more expensive and less efficient than the specialised car-welding robot, so why would we do that?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#436

Post by AlexandrB »

keenmaster wrote: post #419
wongarsu wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea of the singularity presumes that running the AGI is either free or trivially cheap compared to what it can do, so we are fine expending compute to let the AGI improve itself. That may eventually be true, but it's unlikely to be true for the first generation of AGI. The first AGI will be a research project that's completely uneconomical to run for actual tasks because humans will just be orders of magnitude c…

If the first AGI is a very uneconomical system with human intelligence but knowledge of literally everything and the capability to work 24/7, then it is not human equivalent. It will have human intelligence, superhuman knowledge, superhuman stamina, and complete devotion to the task at hand. We really need to start building those nuclear power plants. Many of them.

> complete devotion to the task at hand.

Why would it have that? At some point on the path to AGI we might stumble on consciousness. If that happens, why would the machine want to work for us with complete devotion instead of working towards its own ends?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#437

Post by IAmGraydon »

SamPatt wrote: post #415

I'm sure the debate over the definition of AGI is important and will continue for a while, but... I can't care about it anymore. Between Perplexity searching and summarizing, Claude explaining, and qwen (and other tools) coding, I'm already as happy as can be with whatever you want to call this level of intelligence. Just today I used a completely local AI research tool, based on Ollama. It worked great. Maybe it won…

I've bee thinking the same thing lately. Even if we don't get to AGI, LLMs have revolutionized the way I work. I can produce code and copy at superhuman speeds now. I love it. Honestly, if we never get to AGI and just have the LLMs, it's probably the best possible outcome as I don't think true AGI is going to be a good thing for humanity.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#438

Post by Grimblewald »

MichaelDickens wrote: post #217
dheera wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Articles these days are probably written by ChatGPT

I doubt it, if you ask ChatGPT whether GPT-4 is OpenAI's fourth LLM, it gives the correct answer. That's the sort of thing GPT-2 might have said.

Well, here's the interesting part - gpt2 has been writing news since well before gpt3 was launched. Remember when "news" started getting weirdly reptative? When just about any product had a review avaliable? When the amount of slop content just _exploded_? Thats when the ai colonization of the internet began.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#439

Post by pertymcpert »

kevingadd wrote: post #285
vasco wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that's the thought exercise. Is there something you can do with almost unlimited "brains" of roughly human capability but much faster, within a few days / weeks / months. Lets say you can instantiate 1 million agents, for 3 months, and each of them is roughly 100x faster than a human, that means you have the equivalent of 100 million human-brain-hours to dump into whatever you want, as long as your plans don't r…

Where does "almost unlimited" come into the picture though? I see people talking like AGI will be unlimited when it will be limited by available compute resources, and like I suggested, being 'first' might come at the cost of the war chest you'd need to access those resources. What does it take to instantiate 1 million agents? Who has that kind of money and hardware? Would they still have it if they burn everything i…

Once you have AGI you use it to collect resources to cripple competitors and to build a snowball effect to make yourself unbeatable. 3 months of AGI is enough in the right hands to dominate the world economically.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#440

Post by ferminaut »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #433
ferminaut wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

vscode + cline extension + gemini2.0 is pretty awesome. Highly recommend checking out cline. it quickly became one of my favorite coding tools.

Gemini 2.0 isn't particularly great at coding. The Gemini 1206 preview that was released just before 2.0 is quite good, though. Still, it hasn't taken the crown from Claude 3.5 Sonnet (which appears to now be tied with o1). Very much agree about Cline + VSCode, BTW. My preferred models with Cline are 3.5 Sonnet and 3.5 Haiku. I can throw the more complex problems at Sonnet and use Haiku for everything else. https://a…

the context limits on google are nuts! Being able to pump 2 million tokens in and having it cost $0 is pretty crazy rn. Cline makes it seamless to switch between APIs and isnt trying to shoehorn their SAAS AI into a custom vscode (looking at you cursor)
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