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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#121

I want AI to help me in the physical world: folding my laundry, cooking and farming healthy food, cleaning toilets. Training data is not lying around on the internet for free, but it's also not impossible. How much data do you need? A dozen warehouses full of robots folding and unfolding laundry 24/7 for a few months?

We are close. Language models and large vision models have transformed robotics. It just takes some time to get hardware up and running.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s the same for me. I genuinely don’t understand how I can be having such a completely different experience from the people who rave about ChatGPT. Every time I’ve tried it’s been useless. How can some people think it’s amazing and has completely changed how they work, while for me it makes mistakes that a static analyser would catch? It’s not like I’m doing anything remarkable, for the past couple of months I’ve b…

The ones who use it extensively are the same that used to hit up stackoverflow as the first port of call for every trivial problem that came their way. They're not really engineers, they just want to get stuff done.

No ad hominem please.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#123
"Orion’s problems signaled to some at OpenAI that the more-is-more strategy, which had driven much of its earlier success, was running out of steam."

So LLMs finally hit the wall. For a long time, more data, bigger models, and more compute to drive them worked. But that's apparently not enough any more.

Now someone has to have a new idea. There's plenty of money available if someone has one.

The current level of LLM would be far more useful if someone could get a conservative confidence metric out of the internals of the model. This technology desperately needs to output "Don't know" or "Not sure about this, but ..." when appropriate.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#124
post #117
post #113

"OpenAI’s is called GPT-4, the fourth LLM the company has developed since its 2015 founding." - that sentence doesn't fill me with confidence in the quality of the rest of the article, sadly.

Quite funny that an article about AI was not fed to AI to proof read it.

Bold of you to assume AI didn't write it, too.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#125

I want AI to help me in the physical world: folding my laundry, cooking and farming healthy food, cleaning toilets. Training data is not lying around on the internet for free, but it's also not impossible. How much data do you need? A dozen warehouses full of robots folding and unfolding laundry 24/7 for a few months?

We are close. Language models and large vision models have transformed robotics. It just takes some time to get hardware up and running.

I think it would be many decades before I'd trust a robot like that around small children or pets. Robots with that kind of movement capability, as well as the ability it pick up and move things around, will be heavy enough that a small mistake could easily kill a small child or pet.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#126
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile, no one answers this because they are getting value. You're literally doing the same thing you're accusing of. Every HN thread is full of AI boosters claiming AI to be the future with no backing evidence. Riddle me this. If all these people are "getting value", why are all these companies losing horrendous amounts of money? Why has nobody figured out how to be profitable? > Please take the time to learn,…

> Riddle me this. If all these people are "getting value", why are all these companies losing horrendous amounts of money? Why has nobody figured out how to be profitable? While I agree that LLMs are not currently working great for most envisioned use cases; this premise here is not a good argument. Large LLM providers are not trying to be profitable at the moment. They’re trying to grow and that’s pretty sensible. U…

I'm not sure I would call incinerating 11b dollars a year to the point where you need to do one of the biggest raises ever and it doesn't even buy you a year of runway sensible.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#127
post #117
post #113

"OpenAI’s is called GPT-4, the fourth LLM the company has developed since its 2015 founding." - that sentence doesn't fill me with confidence in the quality of the rest of the article, sadly.

Quite funny that an article about AI was not fed to AI to proof read it.

Editing mistakes that AI wouldn't make is the new "proof of human input".

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#128

I want AI to help me in the physical world: folding my laundry, cooking and farming healthy food, cleaning toilets. Training data is not lying around on the internet for free, but it's also not impossible. How much data do you need? A dozen warehouses full of robots folding and unfolding laundry 24/7 for a few months?

We are close. Language models and large vision models have transformed robotics. It just takes some time to get hardware up and running.

> have transformed robotics

Did they? Where? Seriously, I genuinely want to know who is employing these techniques.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#129

I want AI to help me in the physical world: folding my laundry, cooking and farming healthy food, cleaning toilets. Training data is not lying around on the internet for free, but it's also not impossible. How much data do you need? A dozen warehouses full of robots folding and unfolding laundry 24/7 for a few months?

Laundry folding is an instructive example. Machines have been capable of home-scale laundry folding for over a decade, with two companies Foldimate and Laundroid building functional prototypes. The challenge is making it cost-competitive in a world where most people don't even purchase a $10 folding board.

I would guess that most cooking and cleaning tasks are in basically the same space. You don't need fine motor control to clean a toilet bowl, but you've gotta figure out how to get people to buy the well-proven premisting technology before you'll be able to sell them a toilet-cleaning robot.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a 30 min argument with o1-pro where it was convinced it had solved the halting problem. Tried to gaslight me into thinking I just didn’t understand the subtlety of the argument. But it’s susceptible to appeal to authority and when I started quoting snippets of textbooks and mathoverflow it finally relented and claimed there had been a “misunderstanding”. It really does argue like a human though now...

I had a similar experience with regular o1 about integral that was divergent. It was adamant that it wasn't and would respond to any attempt at persuasion with variants of "its a standard integral" with a "subtle cancellation". When I asked for any source for this standard integral it produced references to support its argument that existed but didn't actually contain the integral. When I told it the references didn'…

> but being this confidently wrong (and "lying" when confronted with it) is troubling.

It works in politics, marketing, and self-promotion.

If you use the web as a training set, those categories dominate.

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